No Arabic abstract
In the presence of monotone information, the stochastic Thiele equation describing the dynamics of state-wise prospective reserves is closely related to the classic martingale representation theorem. When the information utilized by the insurer is non-monotone, the classic martingale theory does not apply. By taking an infinitesimal approach, we derive a generalized stochastic Thiele equation that allows for information discarding. En passant, we solve some open problems for the classic case of monotone information. The results and their implication in practice are illustrated via examples where information is discarded upon and after stochastic retirement.
We discuss several models of the dynamics of interacting populations. The models are constructed by nonlinear differential equations and have two sets of parameters: growth rates and coefficients of interaction between populations. We assume that the parameters depend on the densities of the populations. In addition the parameters can be influenced by different factors of the environment. This influence is modelled by noise terms in the equations for the growth rates and interaction coefficients. Thus the model differential equations become stochastic. In some particular cases these equations can be reduced to a Foker-Plancnk equation for the probability density function of the densities of the interacting populations.
In this paper we will provide a representation of the penalty term of general dynamic concave utilities (hence of dynamic convex risk measures) by applying the theory of g-expectations.
In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few samples for the minority class) that degrades the performance of the prediction model. Moreover, little research has compared the relative performance of well-known BPMs on public datasets addressing the class imbalance problem. In this work, we apply eight classes of well-known BPMs, as suggested by a review of decades of literature, on a new public dataset named Freddie Mac Single-Family Loan-Level Dataset with resampling (i.e., adding synthetic minority samples) of the minority class to tackle class imbalance. Additionally, we apply some recent AI techniques (e.g., tree-based ensemble techniques) that demonstrate potentially better results on models trained with resampled data. In addition, from the analysis of 19 years (1999-2017) of data, we discover that models behave differently when presented with sudden changes in the economy (e.g., a global financial crisis) resulting in abrupt fluctuations in the national default rate. In summary, this study should aid practitioners/researchers in determining the appropriate model with respect to data that contains a class imbalance and various economic stages.
Stochastic point processes with refractoriness appear frequently in the quantitative analysis of physical and biological systems, such as the generation of action potentials by nerve cells, the release and reuptake of vesicles at a synapse, and the counting of particles by detector devices. Here we present an extension of renewal theory to describe ensembles of point processes with time varying input. This is made possible by a representation in terms of occupation numbers of two states: Active and refractory. The dynamics of these occupation numbers follows a distributed delay differential equation. In particular, our theory enables us to uncover the effect of refractoriness on the time-dependent rate of an ensemble of encoding point processes in response to modulation of the input. We present exact solutions that demonstrate generic features, such as stochastic transients and oscillations in the step response as well as resonances, phase jumps and frequency doubling in the transfer of periodic signals. We show that a large class of renewal processes can indeed be regarded as special cases of the model we analyze. Hence our approach represents a widely applicable framework to define and analyze non-stationary renewal processes.
We experimentally emulate, in a controlled fashion, the non-Markovian dynamics of a pure dephasing spin-boson model at zero temperature. Specifically, we use a randomized set of external radio-frequency fields to engineer a desired noise power-spectrum to effectively realize a non-Markovian environment for a single NMR qubit. The information backflow, characteristic to the non-Markovianity, is captured in the nonmonotonicity of the decoherence function and von Neumann entropy of the system. Using such emulated non-Markovian environments, we experimentally study the efficiency of the Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill dynamical decoupling (DD) sequence to inhibit the loss of coherence. Using the filter function formalism, we design optimized DD sequences that maximize coherence protection for non-Markovian environments and study their efficiencies experimentally. Finally, we discuss DD-assisted tuning of the effective non-Markovianity.