No Arabic abstract
Graphical model selection in Markov random fields is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Two particularly prominent models, the Ising model and Gaussian model, have largely developed in parallel using different (though often related) techniques, and several practical algorithms with rigorous sample complexity bounds have been established for each. In this paper, we adapt a recently proposed algorithm of Klivans and Meka (FOCS, 2017), based on the method of multiplicative weight updates, from the Ising model to the Gaussian model, via non-trivial modifications to both the algorithm and its analysis. The algorithm enjoys a sample complexity bound that is qualitatively similar to others in the literature, has a low runtime $O(mp^2)$ in the case of $m$ samples and $p$ nodes, and can trivially be implemented in an online manner.
What is the optimal number of independent observations from which a sparse Gaussian Graphical Model can be correctly recovered? Information-theoretic arguments provide a lower bound on the minimum number of samples necessary to perfectly identify the support of any multivariate normal distribution as a function of model parameters. For a model defined on a sparse graph with $p$ nodes, a maximum degree $d$ and minimum normalized edge strength $kappa$, this necessary number of samples scales at least as $d log p/kappa^2$. The sample complexity requirements of existing methods for perfect graph reconstruction exhibit dependency on additional parameters that do not enter in the lower bound. The question of whether the lower bound is tight and achievable by a polynomial time algorithm remains open. In this paper, we constructively answer this question and propose an algorithm, termed DICE, whose sample complexity matches the information-theoretic lower bound up to a universal constant factor. We also propose a related algorithm SLICE that has a slightly higher sample complexity, but can be implemented as a mixed integer quadratic program which makes it attractive in practice. Importantly, SLICE retains a critical advantage of DICE in that its sample complexity only depends on quantities present in the information theoretic lower bound. We anticipate that this result will stimulate future search of computationally efficient sample-optimal algorithms.
We propose a Bayesian approximate inference method for learning the dependence structure of a Gaussian graphical model. Using pseudo-likelihood, we derive an analytical expression to approximate the marginal likelihood for an arbitrary graph structure without invoking any assumptions about decomposability. The majority of the existing methods for learning Gaussian graphical models are either restricted to decomposable graphs or require specification of a tuning parameter that may have a substantial impact on learned structures. By combining a simple sparsity inducing prior for the graph structures with a default reference prior for the model parameters, we obtain a fast and easily applicable scoring function that works well for even high-dimensional data. We demonstrate the favourable performance of our approach by large-scale comparisons against the leading methods for learning non-decomposable Gaussian graphical models. A theoretical justification for our method is provided by showing that it yields a consistent estimator of the graph structure.
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are probabilistic tools of choice for analyzing conditional dependencies between variables in complex systems. Finding changepoints in the structural evolution of a GGM is therefore essential to detecting anomalies in the underlying system modeled by the GGM. In order to detect structural anomalies in a GGM, we consider the problem of estimating changes in the precision matrix of the corresponding Gaussian distribution. We take a two-step approach to solving this problem:- (i) estimating a background precision matrix using system observations from the past without any anomalies, and (ii) estimating a foreground precision matrix using a sliding temporal window during anomaly monitoring. Our primary contribution is in estimating the foreground precision using a novel contrastive inverse covariance estimation procedure. In order to accurately learn only the structural changes to the GGM, we maximize a penalized log-likelihood where the penalty is the $l_1$ norm of difference between the foreground precision being estimated and the already learned background precision. We modify the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for sparse inverse covariance estimation to perform contrastive estimation of the foreground precision matrix. Our results on simulated GGM data show significant improvement in precision and recall for detecting structural changes to the GGM, compared to a non-contrastive sliding window baseline.
Graphical models are useful tools for describing structured high-dimensional probability distributions. Development of efficient algorithms for learning graphical models with least amount of data remains an active research topic. Reconstruction of graphical models that describe the statistics of discrete variables is a particularly challenging problem, for which the maximum likelihood approach is intractable. In this work, we provide the first sample-efficient method based on the Interaction Screening framework that allows one to provably learn fully general discrete factor models with node-specific discrete alphabets and multi-body interactions, specified in an arbitrary basis. We identify a single condition related to model parametrization that leads to rigorous guarantees on the recovery of model structure and parameters in any error norm, and is readily verifiable for a large class of models. Importantly, our bounds make explicit distinction between parameters that are proper to the model and priors used as an input to the algorithm. Finally, we show that the Interaction Screening framework includes all models previously considered in the literature as special cases, and for which our analysis shows a systematic improvement in sample complexity.
Gaussian Graphical models (GGM) are widely used to estimate the network structures in many applications ranging from biology to finance. In practice, data is often corrupted by latent confounders which biases inference of the underlying true graphical structure. In this paper, we compare and contrast two strategies for inference in graphical models with latent confounders: Gaussian graphical models with latent variables (LVGGM) and PCA-based removal of confounding (PCA+GGM). While these two approaches have similar goals, they are motivated by different assumptions about confounding. In this paper, we explore the connection between these two approaches and propose a new method, which combines the strengths of these two approaches. We prove the consistency and convergence rate for the PCA-based method and use these results to provide guidance about when to use each method. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology using both simulations and in two real-world applications.