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Register a new userSlipping through the net: can data science approaches help target clean cooking policy interventions?
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Andre Paul Neto-Bradley
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Reliance on solid biomass cooking fuels in India has negative health and socio-economic consequences for households, yet policies aimed at promoting uptake of LPG for cooking have not always been effective at promoting sustained transition to cleaner cooking amongst intended beneficiaries. This paper uses a two step approach combining predictive and descriptive analyses of the IHDS panel dataset to identify different groups of households that switched stove between 2004/5 and 2011/12. A tree-based ensemble machine learning predictive analysis identifies key determinants of a switch from biomass to non-biomass stoves. A descriptive clustering analysis is used to identify groups of stove-switching households that follow different transition pathways. There are three key findings of this study: Firstly non-income determinants of stove switching do not have a linear effect on stove switching, in particular variables on time of use and appliance ownership which offer a proxy for household energy practices; secondly location specific factors including region, infrastructure availability, and dwelling quality are found to be key determinants and as a result policies must be tailored to take into account local variations; thirdly clean cooking interventions must enact a range of measures to address the barriers faced by households on different energy transition pathways.
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The pandemic of COVID-19 has caused severe public health consequences around the world. Many interventions of COVID-19 have been implemented. It is of great public health and societal importance to evaluate the effects of interventions in the pandemic of COVID-19. In this paper, with help of synthetic control method, regression discontinuity and a Susceptible-Infected and infectious without isolation-Hospitalized in isolation-Removed (SIHR) model, we evaluate the horizontal and longitudinal effects of stringent interventions implemented in Wenzhou, a representative urban city of China, where stringent interventions were enforced to curb its own epidemic situation with rapidly increasing newly confirmed cases. We found that there were statistically significant treatment effects of those stringent interventions which reduced the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19. Those reduction effects would increase over time. Also, if the stringent interventions were delayed by 2 days or mild interventions were implemented instead, the expected number of cumulative confirmed cases would have been nearly 2 times or 5 times of the actual number. The effects of stringent interventions are significant in mitigating the epidemic situation of COVID-19. The slower the interventions were implemented, the more severe the epidemic would have been, and the stronger the interventions would have been required.
The gradual crowding out of singleton and small team science by large team endeavors is challenging key features of research culture. It is therefore important for the future of scientific practice to reflect upon the individual scientists ethical responsibilities within teams. To facilitate this reflection we show labor force trends in the US revealing a skewed growth in academic ranks and increased levels of competition for promotion within the system; we analyze teaming trends across disciplines and national borders demonstrating why it is becoming difficult to distribute credit and to avoid conflicts of interest; and we use more than a century of Nobel prize data to show how science is outgrowing its old institutions of singleton awards. Of particular concern within the large team environment is the weakening of the mentor-mentee relation, which undermines the cultivation of virtue ethics across scientific generations. These trends and emerging organizational complexities call for a universal set of behavioral norms that transcend team heterogeneity and hierarchy. To this end, our expository analysis provides a survey of ethical issues in team settings to inform science ethics education and science policy.
We investigate a pool of international chess title holders born between 1901 and 1943. Using Elo ratings we compute for every player his expected score in a game with a randomly selected player from the pool. We use this figure as players merit. We measure players fame as the number of Google hits. The correlation between fame and merit is 0.38. At the same time the correlation between the logarithm of fame and merit is 0.61. This suggests that fame grows exponentially with merit.
Context. As a novel coronavirus swept the world in early 2020, thousands of software developers began working from home. Many did so on short notice, under difficult and stressful conditions. Objective. This study investigates the effects of the pandemic on developers wellbeing and productivity. Method. A questionnaire survey was created mainly from existing, validated scales and translated into 12 languages. The data was analyzed using non-parametric inferential statistics and structural equation modeling. Results. The questionnaire received 2225 usable responses from 53 countries. Factor analysis supported the validity of the scales and the structural model achieved a good fit (CFI = 0.961, RMSEA = 0.051, SRMR = 0.067). Confirmatory results include: (1) the pandemic has had a negative effect on developers wellbeing and productivity; (2) productivity and wellbeing are closely related; (3) disaster preparedness, fear related to the pandemic and home office ergonomics all affect wellbeing or productivity. Exploratory analysis suggests that: (1) women, parents and people with disabilities may be disproportionately affected; (2) different people need different kinds of support. Conclusions. To improve employee productivity, software companies should focus on maximizing employee wellbeing and improving the ergonomics of employees home offices. Women, parents and disabled persons may require extra support.
The generation of novelty is central to any creative endeavor. Novelty generation and the relationship between novelty and individual hedonic value have long been subjects of study in social psychology. However, few studies have utilized large-scale datasets to quantitatively investigate these issues. Here we consider the domain of American cinema and explore these questions using a database of films spanning a 70 year period. We use crowdsourced keywords from the Internet Movie Database as a window into the contents of films, and prescribe novelty scores for each film based on occurrence probabilities of individual keywords and keyword-pairs. These scores provide revealing insights into the dynamics of novelty in cinema. We investigate how novelty influences the revenue generated by a film, and find a relationship that resembles the Wundt-Berlyne curve. We also study the statistics of keyword occurrence and the aggregate distribution of keywords over a 100 year period.
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