No Arabic abstract
We study the problem of the non-parametric estimation for the density $pi$ of the stationary distribution of a stochastic two-dimensional damping Hamiltonian system $(Z_t)_{tin[0,T]}=(X_t,Y_t)_{t in [0,T]}$. From the continuous observation of the sampling path on $[0,T]$, we study the rate of estimation for $pi(x_0,y_0)$ as $T to infty$. We show that kernel based estimators can achieve the rate $T^{-v}$ for some explicit exponent $v in (0,1/2)$. One finding is that the rate of estimation depends on the smoothness of $pi$ and is completely different with the rate appearing in the standard i.i.d. setting or in the case of two-dimensional non degenerate diffusion processes. Especially, this rate depends also on $y_0$. Moreover, we obtain a minimax lower bound on the $L^2$-risk for pointwise estimation, with the same rate $T^{-v}$, up to $log(T)$ terms.
We consider a stochastic individual-based model in continuous time to describe a size-structured population for cell divisions. This model is motivated by the detection of cellular aging in biology. We address here the problem of nonparametric estimation of the kernel ruling the divisions based on the eigenvalue problem related to the asymptotic behavior in large population. This inverse problem involves a multiplicative deconvolution operator. Using Fourier technics we derive a nonparametric estimator whose consistency is studied. The main difficulty comes from the non-standard equations connecting the Fourier transforms of the kernel and the parameters of the model. A numerical study is carried out and we pay special attention to the derivation of bandwidths by using resampling.
Estimating the mixing density of a mixture distribution remains an interesting problem in statistics literature. Using a stochastic approximation method, Newton and Zhang (1999) introduced a fast recursive algorithm for estimating the mixing density of a mixture. Under suitably chosen weights the stochastic approximation estimator converges to the true solution. In Tokdar et. al. (2009) the consistency of this recursive estimation method was established. However, the proof of consistency of the resulting estimator used independence among observations as an assumption. Here, we extend the investigation of performance of Newtons algorithm to several dependent scenarios. We first prove that the original algorithm under certain conditions remains consistent when the observations are arising form a weakly dependent process with fixed marginal with the target mixture as the marginal density. For some of the common dependent structures where the original algorithm is no longer consistent, we provide a modification of the algorithm that generates a consistent estimator.
We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic approximations of the mean and variance of this estimator, together with asymptotic normality results, for a large class of Gaussian processes. We allow for general mean functions and study the aggregation of several estimators based on various variation sequences. In extensive simulation studies, we show that the asymptotic results accurately depict thefinite-sample situations already for small to moderate sample sizes. We also compare various variation sequences and highlight the efficiency of the aggregation procedure.
In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and kernel functions based on a localized criterion. Theory on stationary Hawkes processes is extended to develop asymptotic theory for the estimator in the locally stationary model.
This paper deals with the maximum likelihood estimator for the mean-reverting parameter of a first order autoregressive models with exogenous variables, which are stationary Gaussian noises (Colored noise). Using the method of the Laplace transform, both the asymptotic properties and the asymptotic design problem of the maximum likelihood estimator are investigated. The numerical simulation results confirm the theoretical analysis and show that the proposed maximum likelihood estimator performs well in finite sample.