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Register a new userBreaking hypothesis testing for failure rates
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We describe the utility of point processes and failure rates and the most common point process for modeling failure rates, the Poisson point process. Next, we describe the uniformly most powerful test for comparing the rates of two Poisson point processes for a one-sided test (henceforth referred to as the rate test). A common argument against using this test is that real world data rarely follows the Poisson point process. We thus investigate what happens when the distributional assumptions of tests like these are violated and the test still applied. We find a non-pathological example (using the rate test on a Compound Poisson distribution with Binomial compounding) where violating the distributional assumptions of the rate test make it perform better (lower error rates). We also find that if we replace the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis with any other arbitrary distribution, the performance of the test (described in terms of the false negative rate to false positive rate trade-off) remains exactly the same. Next, we compare the performance of the rate test to a version of the Wald test customized to the Negative Binomial point process and find it to perform very similarly while being much more general and versatile. Finally, we discuss the applications to Microsoft Azure. The code for all experiments performed is open source and linked in the introduction.
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Persistent homology is a vital tool for topological data analysis. Previous work has developed some statistical estimators for characteristics of collections of persistence diagrams. However, tools that provide statistical inference for observations that are persistence diagrams are limited. Specifically, there is a need for tests that can assess the strength of evidence against a claim that two samples arise from the same population or process. We propose the use of randomization-style null hypothesis significance tests (NHST) for these situations. The test is based on a loss function that comprises pairwise distances between the elements of each sample and all the elements in the other sample. We use this method to analyze a range of simulated and experimental data. Through these examples we experimentally explore the power of the p-values. Our results show that the randomization-style NHST based on pairwise distances can distinguish between samples from different processes, which suggests that its use for hypothesis tests upon persistence diagrams is reasonable. We demonstrate its application on a real dataset of fMRI data of patients with ADHD.
Making binary decisions is a common data analytical task in scientific research and industrial applications. In data sciences, there are two related but distinct strategies: hypothesis testing and binary classification. In practice, how to choose between these two strategies can be unclear and rather confusing. Here we summarize key distinctions between these two strategies in three aspects and list five practical guidelines for data analysts to choose the appropriate strategy for specific analysis needs. We demonstrate the use of those guidelines in a cancer driver gene prediction example.
Distance-based tests, also called energy statistics, are leading methods for two-sample and independence tests from the statistics community. Kernel-based tests, developed from kernel mean embeddings, are leading methods for two-sample and independence tests from the machine learning community. A fixed-point transformation was previously proposed to connect the distance methods and kernel methods for the population statistics. In this paper, we propose a new bijective transformation between metrics and kernels. It simplifies the fixed-point transformation, inherits similar theoretical properties, allows distance methods to be exactly the same as kernel methods for sample statistics and p-value, and better preserves the data structure upon transformation. Our results further advance the understanding in distance and kernel-based tests, streamline the code base for implementing these tests, and enable a rich literature of distance-based and kernel-based methodologies to directly communicate with each other.
When analyzing empirical data, we often find that global linear models overestimate the number of parameters required. In such cases, we may ask whether the data lies on or near a manifold or a set of manifolds (a so-called multi-manifold) of lower dimension than the ambient space. This question can be phrased as a (multi-) manifold hypothesis. The identification of such intrinsic multiscale features is a cornerstone of data analysis and representation and has given rise to a large body of work on manifold learning. In this work, we review key results on multi-scale data analysis and intrinsic dimension followed by the introduction of a heuristic, multiscale framework for testing the multi-manifold hypothesis. Our method implements a hypothesis test on a set of spline-interpolated manifolds constructed from variance-based intrinsic dimensions. The workflow is suitable for empirical data analysis as we demonstrate on two use cases.
Testing is recommended for all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, existing group testing methods are oblivious to the circumstances of contagion provided by contact tracing. Here, we build upon a well-known semi-adaptive pool testing method, Dorfmans method with imperfect tests, and derive a simple group testing method based on dynamic programming that is specifically designed to use the information provided by contact tracing. Experiments using a variety of reproduction numbers and dispersion levels, including those estimated in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, show that the pools found using our method result in a significantly lower number of tests than those found using standard Dorfmans method, especially when the number of contacts of an infected individual is small. Moreover, our results show that our method can be more beneficial when the secondary infections are highly overdispersed.
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