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Register a new userTopological Machine Learning for Multivariate Time Series
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Added by
Chengyuan Wu
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We develop a framework for analyzing multivariate time series using topological data analysis (TDA) methods. The proposed methodology involves converting the multivariate time series to point cloud data, calculating Wasserstein distances between the persistence diagrams and using the $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm ($k$-NN) for supervised machine learning. Two methods (symmetry-breaking and anchor points) are also introduced to enable TDA to better analyze data with heterogeneous features that are sensitive to translation, rotation, or choice of coordinates. We apply our methods to room occupancy detection based on 5 time-dependent variables (temperature, humidity, light, CO2 and humidity ratio). Experimental results show that topological methods are effective in predicting room occupancy during a time window. We also apply our methods to an Activity Recognition dataset and obtained good results.
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Topological data analysis is a relatively new branch of machine learning that excels in studying high dimensional data, and is theoretically known to be robust against noise. Meanwhile, data objects with mixed numeric and categorical attributes are ubiquitous in real-world applications. However, topological methods are usually applied to point cloud data, and to the best of our knowledge there is no available framework for the classification of mixed data using topological methods. In this paper, we propose a novel topological machine learning method for mixed data classification. In the proposed method, we use theory from topological data analysis such as persistent homology, persistence diagrams and Wasserstein distance to study mixed data. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by experiments on a real-world heart disease dataset. Experimental results show that our topological method outperforms several state-of-the-art algorithms in the prediction of heart disease.
Techniques from computational topology, in particular persistent homology, are becoming increasingly relevant for data analysis. Their stable metrics permit the use of many distance-based data analysis methods, such as multidimensional scaling, while providing a firm theoretical ground. Many modern machine learning algorithms, however, are based on kernels. This paper presents persistence indicator functions (PIFs), which summarize persistence diagrams, i.e., feature descriptors in topological data analysis. PIFs can be calculated and compared in linear time and have many beneficial properties, such as the availability of a kernel-based similarity measure. We demonstrate their usage in common data analysis scenarios, such as confidence set estimation and classification of complex structured data.
Complex data structures such as time series are increasingly present in modern data science problems. A fundamental question is whether two such time-series are statistically dependent. Many current approaches make parametric assumptions on the random processes, only detect linear association, require multiple tests, or forfeit power in high-dimensional, nonlinear settings. Estimating the distribution of any test statistic under the null is non-trivial, as the permutation test is invalid. This work juxtaposes distance correlation (Dcorr) and multiscale graph correlation (MGC) from independence testing literature and block permutation from time series analysis to address these challenges. The proposed nonparametric procedure is valid and consistent, building upon prior work by characterizing the geometry of the relationship, estimating the time lag at which dependence is maximized, avoiding the need for multiple testing, and exhibiting superior power in high-dimensional, low sample size, nonlinear settings. Neural connectivity is analyzed via fMRI data, revealing linear dependence of signals within the visual network and default mode network, and nonlinear relationships in other networks. This work uncovers a first-resort data analysis tool with open-source code available, directly impacting a wide range of scientific disciplines.
Multivariate time series (MTS) prediction plays a key role in many fields such as finance, energy and transport, where each individual time series corresponds to the data collected from a certain data source, so-called channel. A typical pipeline of building an MTS prediction model (PM) consists of selecting a subset of channels among all available ones, extracting features from the selected channels, and building a PM based on the extracted features, where each component involves certain optimization tasks, i.e., selection of channels, feature extraction (FE) methods, and PMs as well as configuration of the selected FE method and PM. Accordingly, pursuing the best prediction performance corresponds to optimizing the pipeline by solving all of its involved optimization problems. This is a non-trivial task due to the vastness of the solution space. Different from most of the existing works which target at optimizing certain components of the pipeline, we propose a novel evolutionary ensemble learning framework to optimize the entire pipeline in a holistic manner. In this framework, a specific pipeline is encoded as a candidate solution and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is applied under different population sizes to produce multiple Pareto optimal sets (POSs). Finally, selective ensemble learning is designed to choose the optimal subset of solutions from the POSs and combine them to yield final prediction by using greedy sequential selection and least square methods. We implement the proposed framework and evaluate our implementation on two real-world applications, i.e., electricity consumption prediction and air quality prediction. The performance comparison with state-of-the-art techniques demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach.
Unsupervised learning seeks to uncover patterns in data. However, different kinds of noise may impede the discovery of useful substructure from real-world time-series data. In this work, we focus on mitigating the interference of left-censorship in the task of clustering. We provide conditions under which clusters and left-censorship may be identified; motivated by this result, we develop a deep generative, continuous-time model of time-series data that clusters while correcting for censorship time. We demonstrate accurate, stable, and interpretable results on synthetic data that outperform several benchmarks. To showcase the utility of our framework on real-world problems, we study how left-censorship can adversely affect the task of disease phenotyping, resulting in the often incorrect assumption that longitudinal patient data are aligned by disease stage. In reality, patients at the time of diagnosis are at different stages of the disease -- both late and early due to differences in when patients seek medical care and such discrepancy can confound unsupervised learning algorithms. On two clinical datasets, our model corrects for this form of censorship and recovers known clinical subtypes.
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