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Register a new userMeasuring Uncertainty through Bayesian Learning of Deep Neural Network Structure
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Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually over-parameterized space. This paper investigates a new line of Bayesian deep learning by performing Bayesian inference on network structure. Instead of building structure from scratch inefficiently, we draw inspirations from neural architecture search to represent the network structure. We then develop an efficient stochastic variational inference approach which unifies the learning of both network structure and weights. Empirically, our method exhibits competitive predictive performance while preserving the benefits of Bayesian principles across challenging scenarios. We also provide convincing experimental justification for our modeling choice.
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Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
Deep Bayesian neural network has aroused a great attention in recent years since it combines the benefits of deep neural network and probability theory. Because of this, the network can make predictions and quantify the uncertainty of the predictions at the same time, which is important in many life-threatening areas. However, most of the recent researches are mainly focusing on making the Bayesian neural network easier to train, and proposing methods to estimate the uncertainty. I notice there are very few works that properly discuss the ways to measure the performance of the Bayesian neural network. Although accuracy and average uncertainty are commonly used for now, they are too general to provide any insight information about the model. In this paper, we would like to introduce more specific criteria and propose several metrics to measure the model performance from different perspectives, which include model calibration measurement, data rejection ability and uncertainty divergence for samples from the same and different distributions.
Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their models cannot adapt to the driving policy of the predicted target human driver. In this work, we propose to overcome these two shortcomings by a Bayesian recurrent neural network model consisting of Bayesian-neural-network-based policy model and known physical model of the scenario. Bayesian neural network can ensemble complicated output distribution, enabling rich family of trajectory distribution. The embedded physical model ensures feasibility of the distribution. Moreover, the adopted gradient-based training method allows direct optimization for better performance in long prediction horizon. Furthermore, a particle-filter-based parameter adaptation algorithm is designed to adapt the policy Bayesian neural network to the predicted target online. Effectiveness of the proposed methods is verified with a toy example with multi-modal stochastic feedback gain and naturalistic car following data.
In domains such as health care and finance, shortage of labeled data and computational resources is a critical issue while developing machine learning algorithms. To address the issue of labeled data scarcity in training and deployment of neural network-based systems, we propose a new technique to train deep neural networks over several data sources. Our method allows for deep neural networks to be trained using data from multiple entities in a distributed fashion. We evaluate our algorithm on existing datasets and show that it obtains performance which is similar to a regular neural network trained on a single machine. We further extend it to incorporate semi-supervised learning when training with few labeled samples, and analyze any security concerns that may arise. Our algorithm paves the way for distributed training of deep neural networks in data sensitive applications when raw data may not be shared directly.
We describe Bayesian Layers, a module designed for fast experimentation with neural network uncertainty. It extends neural network libraries with drop-in replacements for common layers. This enables composition via a unified abstraction over deterministic and stochastic functions and allows for scalability via the underlying system. These layers capture uncertainty over weights (Bayesian neural nets), pre-activation units (dropout), activations (stochastic output layers), or the function itself (Gaussian processes). They can also be reversible to propagate uncertainty from input to output. We include code examples for common architectures such as Bayesian LSTMs, deep GPs, and flow-based models. As demonstration, we fit a 5-billion parameter Bayesian Transformer on 512 TPUv2 cores for uncertainty in machine translation and a Bayesian dynamics model for model-based planning. Finally, we show how Bayesian Layers can be used within the Edward2 probabilistic programming language for probabilistic programs with stochastic processes.
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