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Register a new userLocal alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS and insurgents
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We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, ISIS, and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via $k$-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20km and on average 4 (al Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data is available. Government intervention and spill-over effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy-making and intervention design.
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We consider social networks of competing agents that evolve dynamically over time. Such dynamic competition networks are directed, where a directed edge from nodes $u$ to $v$ corresponds a negative social interaction. We present a novel hypothesis that serves as a predictive tool to uncover alliances and leaders within dynamic competition networks. Our focus is in the present study is to validate it on competitive networks arising from social game shows such as Survivor and Big Brother.
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