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Register a new userUsing HARPS-N to characterise the long-period planets in the PH-2 and Kepler-103 systems
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We present confirmation of the planetary nature of PH-2b, as well as the first mass estimates for the two planets in the Kepler-103 system. PH-2b and Kepler-103c are both long-period and transiting, a sparsely-populated category of exoplanet. We use {it Kepler} light-curve data to estimate a radius, and then use HARPS-N radial velocities to determine the semi-amplitude of the stellar reflex motion and, hence, the planet mass. For PH-2b we recover a 3.5-$sigma$ mass estimate of $M_p = 109^{+30}_{-32}$ M$_oplus$ and a radius of $R_p = 9.49pm0.16$ R$_oplus$. This means that PH-2b has a Saturn-like bulk density and is the only planet of this type with an orbital period $P > 200$ days that orbits a single star. We find that Kepler-103b has a mass of $M_{text{p,b}} = 11.7^{+4.31}_{-4.72}$ M$_{oplus}$ and Kepler-103c has a mass of $M_{text{p,c}} = 58.5^{+11.2}_{-11.4}$ M$_{oplus}$. These are 2.5$sigma$ and 5$sigma$ results, respectively. With radii of $R_{text{p,b}} = 3.49^{+0.06}_{-0.05}$ R$_oplus$, and $R_{text{p,c}} = 5.45^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$ R$_oplus$, these results suggest that Kepler-103b has a Neptune-like density, while Kepler-103c is one of the highest density planets with a period $P > 100$ days. By providing high-precision estimates for the masses of the long-period, intermediate-mass planets PH-2b and Kepler-103c, we increase the sample of long-period planets with known masses and radii, which will improve our understanding of the mass-radius relation across the full range of exoplanet masses and radii.
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We investigated the discrepancy between planetary mass determination using the transit timing variations (TTVs) and radial velocities (RVs), by analysing the multi-planet system Kepler-9. Despite being the first system characterised with TTVs, there are several discrepant solutions in the literature, with those reporting lower planetary densities being apparently in disagreement with high-precision RV observations. To resolve this, we gathered HARPS-N RVs at epochs that maximised the difference between the predicted RV curves from discrepant solutions in the literature. We also re-analysed the full Kepler data-set and performed a dynamical fit, within a Bayesian framework, using the newly derived central and duration times of the transits. We compared these results with the RV data and found that our solution better describes the RV observations, despite the masses of the planets being nearly half that presented in the discovery paper. We therefore confirm that the TTV method can provide mass determinations that agree with those determined using high-precision RVs. The low densities of the planets place them in the scarcely populated region of the super-Neptunes / inflated sub-Saturns in the mass-radius diagram.
We re-examine the statistical confirmation of small long-period Kepler planet candidates in light of recent improvements in our understanding of the occurrence of systematic false alarms in this regime. Using the final Data Release 25 (DR25) Kepler planet candidate catalog statistics, we find that the previously confirmed single planet system Kepler-452b no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis and is not considered statistically validated in agreement with the finding of Mullally et al. (2018). For multiple planet systems, we find that the planet prior enhancement for belonging to a multiple planet system is suppressed relative to previous Kepler catalogs, and we identify the multi-planet system member, Kepler-186f, no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. Because of the numerous confounding factors in the data analysis process that leads to the detection and characterization of a signal, it is difficult to determine whether any one planetary candidate achieves a strict criterion for confirmation relative to systematic false alarms. For instance, when taking into account a simplified model of processing variations, the additional single planet systems Kepler-443b, Kepler-441b, Kepler-1633b, Kepler-1178b, and Kepler-1653b have a non-negligible probability of falling below a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. The systematic false alarm hypothesis must be taken into account when employing statistical validation techniques in order to confirm planet candidates that approach the detection threshold of a survey. We encourage those performing transit searches of K2, TESS, and other similar data sets to quantify their systematic false alarms rates. Alternatively, independent photometric detection of the transit signal or radial velocity measurements can eliminate the false alarm hypothesis.
The vast majority of the 4700 confirmed planets and planet candidates discovered by the Kepler mission were first found by the Kepler pipeline. In the pipeline, after a transit signal is found, all data points associated with those transits are removed, creating a Swiss cheese-like light curve full of holes, which is then used for subsequent transit searches. These holes could render an additional planet undetectable (or lost). We examine a sample of 114 stars with $3+$ confirmed planets to evaluate the effect of this Swiss cheesing. A simulation determines that the probability that a transiting planet is lost due to the transit masking is low, but non-negligible, reaching a plateau at $sim3.3%$ lost in the period range of $P=400-500$ days. We then model all planet transits and subtract out the transit signals for each star, restoring the in-transit data points, and use the Kepler pipeline to search the transit-subtracted (i.e., transit-cleaned) light curves. However, the pipeline did not discover any credible new transit signals. This demonstrates the validity and robustness of the Kepler pipelines choice to use transit masking over transit subtraction. However, a follow-up visual search through all the transit-subtracted data, which allows for easier visual identification of new transits, revealed the existence of a new, Neptune-sized exoplanet (Kepler-150 f) and a potential single transit of a likely false positive (Kepler-208). Kepler-150 f ($P=637.2$ days, $R_{rm{P}}=3.64^{+0.52}_{-0.39}$ R$_{oplus}$) is confirmed with $>99.998%$ confidence using a combination of the planet multiplicity argument, a false positive probability analysis, and a transit duration analysis.
Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s$^{-1}$. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass ($sim$ 0.5 m s$^{-1}$) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus ($sim$ 0.1 m s$^{-1}$) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.
High precision Kepler photometry is used to explore the details of AGB light curves. Since AGB variability has a typical time scale on order of a year we discuss at length the removal of long term trends and quarterly changes in Kepler data. Photometry for a small sample of nine SR AGB stars are examined using a 30 minute cadence over a period of 45 months. While undergoing long period variations of many magnitudes, the light curves are shown to be smooth at the millimagnitude level over much shorter time intervals. No flares or other rapid events were detected on the sub-day time scale. The shortest AGB period detected is on the order of 100 days. All the SR variables in our sample are shown to have multiple modes. This is always the first overtone typically combined with the fundamental. A second common characteristic of SR variables is shown to be the simultaneous excitation of multiple closely separated periods for the same overtone mode. Approximately half the sample had a much longer variation in the light curve, likely a long secondary period. The light curves were all well represented by a combination of sinusoids. However, the properties of the sinusoids are time variable with irregular variations present at low level. No non-radial pulsations were detected. It is argued that the long secondary period variation seen in many SR variables is intrinsic to the star and linked to multiple mode pulsation.
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