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Register a new userChurn Prediction with Sequential Data and Deep Neural Networks. A Comparative Analysis
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Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However, recurrent neural networks provide an alternative approach by which time-varying features can be readily used for modeling. This paper assesses the performance of neural networks for churn modeling using recency, frequency, and monetary value data from a financial services provider. Results show that RFM variables in combination with LSTM neural networks have larger top-decile lift and expected maximum profit metrics than regularized logistic regression models with commonly-used demographic variables. Moreover, we show that using the fitted probabilities from the LSTM as feature in the logistic regression increases the out-of-sample performance of the latter by 25 percent compared to a model with only static features.
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Accurate forecasting of traffic conditions is critical for improving safety, stability, and efficiency of a city transportation system. In reality, it is challenging to produce accurate traffic forecasts due to the complex and dynamic spatiotemporal correlations. Most existing works only consider partial characteristics and features of traffic data, and result in unsatisfactory performances on modeling and forecasting. In this paper, we propose a periodic spatial-temporal deep neural network (PSTN) with three pivotal modules to improve the forecasting performance of traffic conditions through a novel integration of three types of information. First, the historical traffic information is folded and fed into a module consisting of a graph convolutional network and a temporal convolutional network. Second, the recent traffic information together with the historical output passes through the second module consisting of a graph convolutional network and a gated recurrent unit framework. Finally, a multi-layer perceptron is applied to process the auxiliary road attributes and output the final predictions. Experimental results on two publicly accessible real-world urban traffic data sets show that the proposed PSTN outperforms the state-of-the-art benchmarks by significant margins for short-term traffic conditions forecasting
Large prospective epidemiological studies acquire cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) images for pre-symptomatic populations and follow these over time. To support this approach, fully automatic large-scale 3D analysis is essential. In this work, we propose a novel deep neural network using both CMR images and patient metadata to directly predict cardiac shape parameters. The proposed method uses the promising ability of statistical shape models to simplify shape complexity and variability together with the advantages of convolutional neural networks for the extraction of solid visual features. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses such an approach for 3D cardiac shape prediction. We validated our proposed CMR analytics method against a reference cohort containing 500 3D shapes of the cardiac ventricles. Our results show broadly significant agreement with the reference shapes in terms of the estimated volume of the cardiac ventricles, myocardial mass, 3D Dice, and mean and Hausdorff distance.
Recommender systems objectives can be broadly characterized as modeling user preferences over short-or long-term time horizon. A large body of previous research studied long-term recommendation through dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the historical user-item interactions. A recently introduced session-based recommendation setting highlighted the importance of modeling short-term user preferences. In this task, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have shown to be successful at capturing the nuances of users interactions within a short time window. In this paper, we evaluate RNN-based models on both short-term and long-term recommendation tasks. Our experimental results suggest that RNNs are capable of predicting immediate as well as distant user interactions. We also find the best performing configuration to be a stacked RNN with layer normalization and tied item embeddings.
Popular deep neural networks (DNNs) spend the majority of their execution time computing convolutions. The Winograd family of algorithms can greatly reduce the number of arithmetic operations required and is present in many DNN software frameworks. However, the performance gain is at the expense of a reduction in floating point (FP) numerical accuracy. In this paper, we analyse the worst case FP error and prove the estimation of norm and conditioning of the algorithm. We show that the bound grows exponentially with the size of the convolution, but the error bound of the textit{modified} algorithm is smaller than the original one. We propose several methods for reducing FP error. We propose a canonical evaluation ordering based on Huffman coding that reduces summation error. We study the selection of sampling points experimentally and find empirically good points for the most important sizes. We identify the main factors associated with good points. In addition, we explore other methods to reduce FP error, including mixed-precision convolution, and pairwise summation across DNN channels. Using our methods we can significantly reduce FP error for a given block size, which allows larger block sizes and reduced computation.
User response prediction is a crucial component for personalized information retrieval and filtering scenarios, such as recommender system and web search. The data in user response prediction is mostly in a multi-field categorical format and transformed into sparse representations via one-hot encoding. Due to the sparsity problems in representation and optimization, most research focuses on feature engineering and shallow modeling. Recently, deep neural networks have attracted research attention on such a problem for their high capacity and end-to-end training scheme. In this paper, we study user response prediction in the scenario of click prediction. We first analyze a coupled gradient issue in latent vector-based models and propose kernel product to learn field-aware feature interactions. Then we discuss an insensitive gradient issue in DNN-based models and propose Product-based Neural Network (PNN) which adopts a feature extractor to explore feature interactions. Generalizing the kernel product to a net-in-net architecture, we further propose Product-network In Network (PIN) which can generalize previous models. Extensive experiments on 4 industrial datasets and 1 contest dataset demonstrate that our models consistently outperform 8 baselines on both AUC and log loss. Besides, PIN makes great CTR improvement (relatively 34.67%) in online A/B test.
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