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Register a new userData Driven Vulnerability Exploration for Design Phase System Analysis
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Applying security as a lifecycle practice is becoming increasingly important to combat targeted attacks in safety-critical systems. Among others there are two significant challenges in this area: (1) the need for models that can characterize a realistic system in the absence of an implementation and (2) an automated way to associate attack vector information; that is, historical data, to such system models. We propose the cybersecurity body of knowledge (CYBOK), which takes in sufficiently characteristic models of systems and acts as a search engine for potential attack vectors. CYBOK is fundamentally an algorithmic approach to vulnerability exploration, which is a significant extension to the body of knowledge it builds upon. By using CYBOK, security analysts and system designers can work together to assess the overall security posture of systems early in their lifecycle, during major design decisions and before final product designs. Consequently, assisting in applying security earlier and throughout the systems lifecycle.
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Growing amount of hydraulic fracturing (HF) jobs in the recent two decades resulted in a significant amount of measured data available for development of predictive models via machine learning (ML). In multistage fractured completions, post-fracturing production analysis reveals that different stages produce very non-uniformly due to a combination of geomechanics and fracturing design factors. Hence, there is a significant room for improvement of current design practices. The workflow is essentially split into two stages. As a result of the first stage, the present paper summarizes the efforts into the creation of a digital database of field data from several thousands of multistage HF jobs on wells from circa 20 different oilfields in Western Siberia, Russia. In terms of the number of points (fracturing jobs), the present database is a rare case of a representative dataset of about 5000 data points. Each point in the data base contains the vector of 92 input variables (the reservoir, well and the frac design parameters) and the vector of production data, which is characterized by 16 parameters, including the target, cumulative oil production. Data preparation has been done using various ML techniques: the problem of missing values in the database is solved with collaborative filtering for data imputation; outliers are removed using visualisation of cluster data structure by t-SNE algorithm. The production forecast problem is solved via CatBoost algorithm. Prediction capability of the model is measured with the coefficient of determination (R^2) and reached 0.815. The inverse problem (selecting an optimum set of fracturing design parameters to maximize production) will be considered in the second part of the study to be published in another paper, along with a recommendation system for advising DESC and production stimulation engineers on an optimized fracturing design.
An unobservable false data injection (FDI) attack on AC state estimation (SE) is introduced and its consequences on the physical system are studied. With a focus on understanding the physical consequences of FDI attacks, a bi-level optimization problem is introduced whose objective is to maximize the physical line flows subsequent to an FDI attack on DC SE. The maximization is subject to constraints on both attacker resources (size of attack) and attack detection (limiting load shifts) as well as those required by DC optimal power flow (OPF) following SE. The resulting attacks are tested on a more realistic non-linear system model using AC state estimation and ACOPF, and it is shown that, with an appropriately chosen sub-network, the attacker can overload transmission lines with moderate shifts of load.
This paper focuses on the problem of cyber attacks for discrete event systems under supervisory control. In more detail, the goal of the supervisor, who has a partial observation of the system evolution, is that of preventing the system from reaching a set of unsafe states. An attacker may act in two different ways: he can corrupt the observation of the supervisor editing the sensor readings, and can enable events that are disabled by the supervisor. This is done with the aim of leading the plant to an unsafe state, and keeping the supervisor unaware of that before the unsafe state is reached. A special automaton, called attack structure is constructed as the parallel composition of two special structures. Such an automaton can be used by the attacker to select appropriate actions (if any) to reach the above goal, or equivalently by the supervisor, to validate its robustness with respect to such attacks.
In this paper, we introduce a robust sensor design framework to provide persuasion-based defense in stochastic control systems against an unknown type attacker with a control objective exclusive to its type. For effective control, such an attackers actions depend on its belief on the underlying state of the system. We design a robust linear-plus-noise signaling strategy to encode sensor outputs in order to shape the attackers belief in a strategic way and correspondingly to persuade the attacker to take actions that lead to minimum damage with respect to the systems objective. The specific model we adopt is a Gauss-Markov process driven by a controller with a (partially) unknown malicious/benign control objective. We seek to defend against the worst possible distribution over control objectives in a robust way under the solution concept of Stackelberg equilibrium, where the sensor is the leader. We show that a necessary and sufficient condition on the covariance matrix of the posterior belief is a certain linear matrix inequality and we provide a closed-form solution for the associated signaling strategy. This enables us to formulate an equivalent tractable problem, indeed a semi-definite program, to compute the robust sensor design strategies globally even though the original optimization problem is non-convex and highly nonlinear. We also extend this result to scenarios where the sensor makes noisy or partial measurements. Finally, we analyze the ensuing performance numerically for various scenarios.
State estimation is of considerable significance for the power system operation and control. However, well-designed false data injection attacks can utilize blind spots in conventional residual-based bad data detection methods to manipulate measurements in a coordinated manner and thus affect the secure operation and economic dispatch of grids. In this paper, we propose a detection approach based on an autoencoder neural network. By training the network on the dependencies intrinsic in normal operation data, it effectively overcomes the challenge of unbalanced training data that is inherent in power system attack detection. To evaluate the detection performance of the proposed mechanism, we conduct a series of experiments on the IEEE 118-bus power system. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed autoencoder detector displays robust detection performance under a variety of attack scenarios.
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