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Register a new userIdentification of Switched Autoregressive and Switched Autoregressive Exogenous Systems from Large Noisy Data Sets
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The paper introduces novel methodologies for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive and switched autoregressive exogenous linear models. We consider cases which systems outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of noise for the both case of measurement noise in switched autoregressive models and process noise in switched autoregressive exogenous models. It is assumed that only partial information on the probability distribution of the noise is available. Given input-output data, we aim at identifying switched system coefficients and parameters of the distribution of the noise, which are compatible with the collected data. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach with several academic examples. The method is shown to be extremely effective in the situations where a large number of measurements is available; cases in which previous approaches based on polynomial or mixed-integer optimization cannot be applied due to very large computational burden.
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The paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of coefficients of switched autoregressive linear models. We consider the case when the systems outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of measurement noise. It is assumed that only partial information on the probability distribution of the noise is available. Given input-output data, we aim at identifying switched system coefficients and parameters of the distribution of the noise which are compatible with the collected data. System dynamics are estimated through expected values computation and by exploiting the strong law of large numbers. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach with several academic examples. The method is shown to be extremely effective in the situations where a large number of measurements is available; cases in which previous approaches based on polynomial or mixed-integer optimization cannot be applied due to very large computational burden.
This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The systems outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of measurement noise. Although the procedure provided can handle other noise distributions, for simplicity, it is assumed that the distribution is Normal with unknown variance. Given noisy input-output data, we aim at identifying switched system coefficients, parameters of the noise distribution, dynamics of switching and probability transition matrix of Markovian model. System dynamics are estimated using previous results which exploit algebraic constraints that system trajectories have to satisfy. Switching dynamics are computed with solving a maximum likelihood estimation problem. The efficiency of proposed approach is shown with several academic examples. Although the noise to output ratio can be high, the method is shown to be extremely effective in the situations where a large number of measurements is available.
Autoregressive exogenous (ARX) systems are the general class of input-output dynamical systems used for modeling stochastic linear dynamical systems (LDS) including partially observable LDS such as LQG systems. In this work, we study the problem of system identification and adaptive control of unknown ARX systems. We provide finite-time learning guarantees for the ARX systems under both open-loop and closed-loop data collection. Using these guarantees, we design adaptive control algorithms for unknown ARX systems with arbitrary strongly convex or convex quadratic regulating costs. Under strongly convex cost functions, we design an adaptive control algorithm based on online gradient descent to design and update the controllers that are constructed via a convex controller reparametrization. We show that our algorithm has $tilde{mathcal{O}}(sqrt{T})$ regret via explore and commit approach and if the model estimates are updated in epochs using closed-loop data collection, it attains the optimal regret of $text{polylog}(T)$ after $T$ time-steps of interaction. For the case of convex quadratic cost functions, we propose an adaptive control algorithm that deploys the optimism in the face of uncertainty principle to design the controller. In this setting, we show that the explore and commit approach has a regret upper bound of $tilde{mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$, and the adaptive control with continuous model estimate updates attains $tilde{mathcal{O}}(sqrt{T})$ regret after $T$ time-steps.
We present a data-driven framework for strategy synthesis for partially-known switched stochastic systems. The properties of the system are specified using linear temporal logic (LTL) over finite traces (LTLf), which is as expressive as LTL and enables interpretations over finite behaviors. The framework first learns the unknown dynamics via Gaussian process regression. Then, it builds a formal abstraction of the switched system in terms of an uncertain Markov model, namely an Interval Markov Decision Process (IMDP), by accounting for both the stochastic behavior of the system and the uncertainty in the learning step. Then, we synthesize a strategy on the resulting IMDP that maximizes the satisfaction probability of the LTLf specification and is robust against all the uncertainties in the abstraction. This strategy is then refined into a switching strategy for the original stochastic system. We show that this strategy is near-optimal and provide a bound on its distance (error) to the optimal strategy. We experimentally validate our framework on various case studies, including both linear and non-linear switched stochastic systems.
In this work, a data-driven modeling framework of switched dynamical systems under time-dependent switching is proposed. The learning technique utilized to model system dynamics is Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). First, a method is developed for the detection of the switching occurrence events in the training data extracted from system traces. The training data thus can be segmented by the detected switching instants. Then, ELM is used to learn the system dynamics of subsystems. The learning process includes segmented trace data merging and subsystem dynamics modeling. Due to the specific learning structure of ELM, the modeling process is formulated as an iterative Least-Squares (LS) optimization problem. Finally, the switching sequence can be reconstructed based on the switching detection and segmented trace merging results. An example of the data-driven modeling DC-DC converter is presented to show the effectiveness of the developed approach.
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