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Register a new userIdentifying the Influential Inputs for Network Output Variance Using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion
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Added by
Zhanlin Liu
Publication date
2019
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an important aspect of process automation. It often aims to identify the process inputs that influence the process outputs variance significantly. Existing SA approaches typically consider the input-output relationship as a black-box and conduct extensive random sampling from the actual process or its high-fidelity simulation model to identify the influential inputs. In this paper, an alternate, novel approach is proposed using a sparse polynomial chaos expansion-based model for a class of input-output relationships represented as directed acyclic networks. The model exploits the relationship structure by recursively relating a network node to its direct predecessors to trace the output variance back to the inputs. It, thereby, estimates the Sobol indices, which measure the influence of each input on the output variance, accurately and efficiently. Theoretical analysis establishes the validity of the model as the prediction of the network output converges in probability to the true output under certain regularity conditions. Empirical evaluation on two manufacturing processes shows that the model estimates the Sobol indices accurately with far fewer observations than a state-of-the-art Monte Carlo sampling method.
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Uncertainties exist in both physics-based and data-driven models. Variance-based sensitivity analysis characterizes how the variance of a model output is propagated from the model inputs. The Sobol index is one of the most widely used sensitivity indices for models with independent inputs. For models with dependent inputs, different approaches have been explored to obtain sensitivity indices in the literature. Typical approaches are based on procedures of transforming the dependent inputs into independent inputs. However, such transformation requires additional information about the inputs, such as the dependency structure or the conditional probability density functions. In this paper, data-driven sensitivity indices are proposed for models with dependent inputs. We first construct ordered partitions of linearly independent polynomials of the inputs. The modified Gram-Schmidt algorithm is then applied to the ordered partitions to generate orthogonal polynomials with respect to the empirical measure based on observed data of model inputs and outputs. Using the polynomial chaos expansion with the orthogonal polynomials, we obtain the proposed data-driven sensitivity indices. The sensitivity indices provide intuitive interpretations of how the dependent inputs affect the variance of the output without a priori knowledge on the dependence structure of the inputs. Three numerical examples are used to validate the proposed approach.
Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been used in many real-world engineering applications to quantify how the uncertainty of an output is propagated from inputs. PCEs for models with independent inputs have been extensively explored in the literature. Recently, different approaches have been proposed for models with dependent inputs to expand the use of PCEs to more real-world applications. Typical approaches include building PCEs based on the Gram-Schmidt algorithm or transforming the dependent inputs into independent inputs. However, the two approaches have their limitations regarding computational efficiency and additional assumptions about the input distributions, respectively. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach to build sparse PCEs for models with dependent inputs. The proposed algorithm recursively constructs orthonormal polynomials using a set of monomials based on their correlations with the output. The proposed algorithm on building sparse PCEs not only reduces the number of minimally required observations but also improves the numerical stability and computational efficiency. Four numerical examples are implemented to validate the proposed algorithm.
We introduce PoCET: a free and open-scource Polynomial Chaos Expansion Toolbox for Matlab, featuring the automatic generation of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems with time-invariant stochastic parameters or initial conditions, as well as several simulation tools. It offers a built-in handling of Gaussian, uniform, and beta probability density functions, projection and collocation-based calculation of PCE coefficients, and the calculation of stochastic moments from a PCE. Efficient algorithms for the calculation of the involved integrals have been designed in order to increase its applicability. PoCET comes with a variety of introductory and instructive examples. Throughout the paper we show how to perform a polynomial chaos expansion on a simple ordinary differential equation using PoCET, as well as how it can be used to solve the more complex task of optimal experimental design.
We present randomized algorithms to compute the sumset (Minkowski sum) of two integer sets, and to multiply two univariate integer polynomials given by sparse representations. Our algorithm for sumset has cost softly linear in the combined size of the inputs and output. This is used as part of our sparse multiplication algorithm, whose cost is softly linear in the combined size of the inputs, output, and the sumset of the supports of the inputs. As a subroutine, we present a new method for computing the coefficients of a sparse polynomial, given a set containing its support. Our multiplication algorithm extends to multivariate Laurent polynomials over finite fields and rational numbers. Our techniques are based on sparse interpolation algorithms and results from analytic number theory.
Sensitivity indices when the inputs of a model are not independent are estimated by local polynomial techniques. Two original estimators based on local polynomial smoothers are proposed. Both have good theoretical properties which are exhibited and also illustrated through analytical examples. They are used to carry out a sensitivity analysis on a real case of a kinetic model with correlated parameters.
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