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Register a new userDrift of pancake ice floes in the winter Antarctic marginal ice zone during polar cyclones
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High temporal resolution in--situ measurements of pancake ice drift are presented, from a pair of buoys deployed on floes in the Antarctic marginal ice zone during the winter sea ice expansion, over nine days in which the region was impacted by four polar cyclones. Concomitant measurements of wave-in-ice activity from the buoys is used to infer that pancake ice conditions were maintained over at least the first seven days. Analysis of the data shows: (i)~unprecedentedly fast drift speeds in the Southern Ocean; (ii)~high correlation of drift velocities with the surface wind velocities, indicating absence of internal ice stresses $>$100,km in from the edge in 100% remotely sensed ice concentration; and (iii)~presence of a strong inertial signature with a 13,h period. A Langrangian free drift model is developed, including a term for geostrophic currents that reproduces the 13,h period signature in the ice motion. The calibrated model is shown to provide accurate predictions of the ice drift for up to 2,days, and the calibrated parameters provide estimates of wind and ocean drag for pancake floes under storm conditions.
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Propagation of energetic surface gravity waves over a $>40$,km transect of the winter Antarctic marginal ice zone comprised of pancake floes and interstitial frazil ice during an explosive polar cyclone are presented, obtained with a shipborne stereo-camera system. The waves are shown to attenuate at an exponential rate over distance, but, despite this, remain large, even at the deepest measurement locations and in 100% ice concentration, where they are up to 8,m in amplitude -- the largest waves measured in comparable conditions. The occurrence of large waves in the marginal ice zone is shown to be consistent with linear theory. Using concomitant measurements of wind speeds, evidence is given that wind-to-wave momentum transfer occurs through a 100% pancake/frazil ice cover, which is not permitted in most contemporary models.
1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus Antarctic sea ice extent. 3) We propose the global annual cycle of atmospheric methane is largely driven by Antarctic sea ice dynamics, with relatively stronger influence from other fluxes (probably the biota) in the Northern Hemisphere. 4) We propose degassing during sea ice freeze and temperature dependent solubility in the ocean dominate the annual methane cycle. 5) Results provide evidence that carbon cycle pathways, parameters and predictions must be reassessed.
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (vs. 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.
Methane ebullition (bubbling) from lake sediments is an important methane flux into the atmosphere. Previous studies have focused on the open-water season, showing that temperature variations, pressure fluctuations and wind-induced currents can affect ebullition. However, ebullition surveys during the ice-cover are rare despite the prevalence of seasonally ice-covered lakes, and the factors controlling ebullition are poorly understood. Here, we present a month-long, high frequency record of acoustic ebullition data from an ice-covered lake. The record shows that ebullition occurs almost exclusively when atmospheric pressure drops below a threshold that is approximately equal to the long-term average pressure. The intensity of ebullition is proportional to the amount by which the pressure drops below this threshold. In addition, field measurements of turbidity, in conjunction with laboratory experiments, provide evidence that ebullition is responsible for previously unexplained elevated levels of turbidity during ice-cover.
In 2015 the Gamma-Ray Observation of Winter Thunderstorms (GROWTH) collaboration launched a mapping observation campaign for high-energy atmospheric phenomena related to thunderstorms and lightning discharges. This campaign has developed a detection network of gamma rays with up to 10 radiation monitors installed in Kanazawa and Komatsu cities, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, where low-charge-center winter thunderstorms frequently occur. During four winter seasons from October 2016 to April 2020, in total 70 gamma-ray glows, minute-lasting bursts of gamma rays originating from thunderclouds, were detected. Their average duration is 58.9 sec. Among the detected events, 77% were observed in nighttime. The gamma-ray glows can be classified into temporally-symmetric, temporally-asymmetric, and lightning-terminated types based on their count-rate histories. An averaged energy spectrum of the gamma-ray glows is well fitted with a power-law function with an exponential cutoff, whose photon index, cutoff energy, and flux are $0.613pm0.009$, $4.68pm0.04$ MeV, and $(1.013pm0.003)times10^{-5}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ (0.2-20.0MeV), respectively. The present paper provides the first catalog of gamma-ray glows and their statistical analysis detected during winter thunderstorms in the Kanazawa and Komatsu areas.
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