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Register a new userPredicting Progression of Age-related Macular Degeneration from Fundus Images using Deep Learning
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Naama Hammel
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Background: Patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) can avoid vision loss via certain therapy. However, methods to predict the progression to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nvAMD) are lacking. Purpose: To develop and validate a deep learning (DL) algorithm to predict 1-year progression of eyes with no, early, or intermediate AMD to nvAMD, using color fundus photographs (CFP). Design: Development and validation of a DL algorithm. Methods: We trained a DL algorithm to predict 1-year progression to nvAMD, and used 10-fold cross-validation to evaluate this approach on two groups of eyes in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS): none/early/intermediate AMD, and intermediate AMD (iAMD) only. We compared the DL algorithm to the manually graded 4-category and 9-step scales in the AREDS dataset. Main outcome measures: Performance of the DL algorithm was evaluated using the sensitivity at 80% specificity for progression to nvAMD. Results: The DL algorithms sensitivity for predicting progression to nvAMD from none/early/iAMD (78+/-6%) was higher than manual grades from the 9-step scale (67+/-8%) or the 4-category scale (48+/-3%). For predicting progression specifically from iAMD, the DL algorithms sensitivity (57+/-6%) was also higher compared to the 9-step grades (36+/-8%) and the 4-category grades (20+/-0%). Conclusions: Our DL algorithm performed better in predicting progression to nvAMD than manual grades. Future investigations are required to test the application of this DL algorithm in a real-world clinical setting.
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Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness. Although the Age-Related Eye Disease Study group previously developed a 9-step AMD severity scale for manual classification of AMD severity from color fundus images, manual grading of images is time-consuming and expensive. Built on our previous work DeepSeeNet, we developed a novel deep learning model for automated classification of images into the 9-step scale. Instead of predicting the 9-step score directly, our approach simulates the reading center grading process. It first detects four AMD characteristics (drusen area, geographic atrophy, increased pigment, and depigmentation), then combines these to derive the overall 9-step score. Importantly, we applied multi-task learning techniques, which allowed us to train classification of the four characteristics in parallel, share representation, and prevent overfitting. Evaluation on two image datasets showed that the accuracy of the model exceeded the current state-of-the-art model by > 10%.
Refractive error, one of the leading cause of visual impairment, can be corrected by simple interventions like prescribing eyeglasses. We trained a deep learning algorithm to predict refractive error from the fundus photographs from participants in the UK Biobank cohort, which were 45 degree field of view images and the AREDS clinical trial, which contained 30 degree field of view images. Our model use the attention method to identify features that are correlated with refractive error. Mean absolute error (MAE) of the algorithms prediction compared to the refractive error obtained in the AREDS and UK Biobank. The resulting algorithm had a MAE of 0.56 diopters (95% CI: 0.55-0.56) for estimating spherical equivalent on the UK Biobank dataset and 0.91 diopters (95% CI: 0.89-0.92) for the AREDS dataset. The baseline expected MAE (obtained by simply predicting the mean of this population) was 1.81 diopters (95% CI: 1.79-1.84) for UK Biobank and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.60-1.67) for AREDS. Attention maps suggested that the foveal region was one of the most important areas used by the algorithm to make this prediction, though other regions also contribute to the prediction. The ability to estimate refractive error with high accuracy from retinal fundus photos has not been previously known and demonstrates that deep learning can be applied to make novel predictions from medical images. Given that several groups have recently shown that it is feasible to obtain retinal fundus photos using mobile phones and inexpensive attachments, this work may be particularly relevant in regions of the world where autorefractors may not be readily available.
We propose a hybrid sequential deep learning model to predict the risk of AMD progression in non-exudative AMD eyes at multiple timepoints, starting from short-term progression (3-months) up to long-term progression (21-months). Proposed model combines radiomics and deep learning to handle challenges related to imperfect ratio of OCT scan dimension and training cohort size. We considered a retrospective clinical trial dataset that includes 671 fellow eyes with 13,954 dry AMD observations for training and validating the machine learning models on a 10-fold cross validation setting. The proposed RNN model achieved high accuracy (0.96 AUCROC) for the prediction of both short term and long-term AMD progression, and outperformed the traditional random forest model trained. High accuracy achieved by the RNN establishes the ability to identify AMD patients at risk of progressing to advanced AMD at an early stage which could have a high clinical impact as it allows for optimal clinical follow-up, with more frequent screening and potential earlier treatment for those patients at high risk.
Purpose: To validate the performance of a commercially-available, CE-certified deep learning (DL) system, RetCAD v.1.3.0 (Thirona, Nijmegen, The Netherlands), for the joint automatic detection of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in color fundus (CF) images on a dataset with mixed presence of eye diseases. Methods: Evaluation of joint detection of referable DR and AMD was performed on a DR-AMD dataset with 600 images acquired during routine clinical practice, containing referable and non-referable cases of both diseases. Each image was graded for DR and AMD by an experienced ophthalmologist to establish the reference standard (RS), and by four independent observers for comparison with human performance. Validation was furtherly assessed on Messidor (1200 images) for individual identification of referable DR, and the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) dataset (133821 images) for referable AMD, against the corresponding RS. Results: Regarding joint validation on the DR-AMD dataset, the system achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 95.1% for detection of referable DR (SE=90.1%, SP=90.6%). For referable AMD, the AUC was 94.9% (SE=91.8%, SP=87.5%). Average human performance for DR was SE=61.5% and SP=97.8%; for AMD, SE=76.5% and SP=96.1%. Regarding detection of referable DR in Messidor, AUC was 97.5% (SE=92.0%, SP=92.1%); for referable AMD in AREDS, AUC was 92.7% (SE=85.8%, SP=86.0%). Conclusions: The validated system performs comparably to human experts at simultaneous detection of DR and AMD. This shows that DL systems can facilitate access to joint screening of eye diseases and become a quick and reliable support for ophthalmological experts.
Traditionally, medical discoveries are made by observing associations and then designing experiments to test these hypotheses. However, observing and quantifying associations in images can be difficult because of the wide variety of features, patterns, colors, values, shapes in real data. In this paper, we use deep learning, a machine learning technique that learns its own features, to discover new knowledge from retinal fundus images. Using models trained on data from 284,335 patients, and validated on two independent datasets of 12,026 and 999 patients, we predict cardiovascular risk factors not previously thought to be present or quantifiable in retinal images, such as such as age (within 3.26 years), gender (0.97 AUC), smoking status (0.71 AUC), HbA1c (within 1.39%), systolic blood pressure (within 11.23mmHg) as well as major adverse cardiac events (0.70 AUC). We further show that our models used distinct aspects of the anatomy to generate each prediction, such as the optic disc or blood vessels, opening avenues of further research.
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