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Register a new userA Deep-learning Approach for Prognosis of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Disease using SD-OCT Imaging Biomarkers
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We propose a hybrid sequential deep learning model to predict the risk of AMD progression in non-exudative AMD eyes at multiple timepoints, starting from short-term progression (3-months) up to long-term progression (21-months). Proposed model combines radiomics and deep learning to handle challenges related to imperfect ratio of OCT scan dimension and training cohort size. We considered a retrospective clinical trial dataset that includes 671 fellow eyes with 13,954 dry AMD observations for training and validating the machine learning models on a 10-fold cross validation setting. The proposed RNN model achieved high accuracy (0.96 AUCROC) for the prediction of both short term and long-term AMD progression, and outperformed the traditional random forest model trained. High accuracy achieved by the RNN establishes the ability to identify AMD patients at risk of progressing to advanced AMD at an early stage which could have a high clinical impact as it allows for optimal clinical follow-up, with more frequent screening and potential earlier treatment for those patients at high risk.
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Background: Patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) can avoid vision loss via certain therapy. However, methods to predict the progression to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nvAMD) are lacking. Purpose: To develop and validate a deep learning (DL) algorithm to predict 1-year progression of eyes with no, early, or intermediate AMD to nvAMD, using color fundus photographs (CFP). Design: Development and validation of a DL algorithm. Methods: We trained a DL algorithm to predict 1-year progression to nvAMD, and used 10-fold cross-validation to evaluate this approach on two groups of eyes in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS): none/early/intermediate AMD, and intermediate AMD (iAMD) only. We compared the DL algorithm to the manually graded 4-category and 9-step scales in the AREDS dataset. Main outcome measures: Performance of the DL algorithm was evaluated using the sensitivity at 80% specificity for progression to nvAMD. Results: The DL algorithms sensitivity for predicting progression to nvAMD from none/early/iAMD (78+/-6%) was higher than manual grades from the 9-step scale (67+/-8%) or the 4-category scale (48+/-3%). For predicting progression specifically from iAMD, the DL algorithms sensitivity (57+/-6%) was also higher compared to the 9-step grades (36+/-8%) and the 4-category grades (20+/-0%). Conclusions: Our DL algorithm performed better in predicting progression to nvAMD than manual grades. Future investigations are required to test the application of this DL algorithm in a real-world clinical setting.
Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness. Although the Age-Related Eye Disease Study group previously developed a 9-step AMD severity scale for manual classification of AMD severity from color fundus images, manual grading of images is time-consuming and expensive. Built on our previous work DeepSeeNet, we developed a novel deep learning model for automated classification of images into the 9-step scale. Instead of predicting the 9-step score directly, our approach simulates the reading center grading process. It first detects four AMD characteristics (drusen area, geographic atrophy, increased pigment, and depigmentation), then combines these to derive the overall 9-step score. Importantly, we applied multi-task learning techniques, which allowed us to train classification of the four characteristics in parallel, share representation, and prevent overfitting. Evaluation on two image datasets showed that the accuracy of the model exceeded the current state-of-the-art model by > 10%.
Purpose: To validate the performance of a commercially-available, CE-certified deep learning (DL) system, RetCAD v.1.3.0 (Thirona, Nijmegen, The Netherlands), for the joint automatic detection of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in color fundus (CF) images on a dataset with mixed presence of eye diseases. Methods: Evaluation of joint detection of referable DR and AMD was performed on a DR-AMD dataset with 600 images acquired during routine clinical practice, containing referable and non-referable cases of both diseases. Each image was graded for DR and AMD by an experienced ophthalmologist to establish the reference standard (RS), and by four independent observers for comparison with human performance. Validation was furtherly assessed on Messidor (1200 images) for individual identification of referable DR, and the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) dataset (133821 images) for referable AMD, against the corresponding RS. Results: Regarding joint validation on the DR-AMD dataset, the system achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 95.1% for detection of referable DR (SE=90.1%, SP=90.6%). For referable AMD, the AUC was 94.9% (SE=91.8%, SP=87.5%). Average human performance for DR was SE=61.5% and SP=97.8%; for AMD, SE=76.5% and SP=96.1%. Regarding detection of referable DR in Messidor, AUC was 97.5% (SE=92.0%, SP=92.1%); for referable AMD in AREDS, AUC was 92.7% (SE=85.8%, SP=86.0%). Conclusions: The validated system performs comparably to human experts at simultaneous detection of DR and AMD. This shows that DL systems can facilitate access to joint screening of eye diseases and become a quick and reliable support for ophthalmological experts.
Objective Reticular pseudodrusen (RPD), a key feature of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), are poorly detected by human experts on standard color fundus photography (CFP) and typically require advanced imaging modalities such as fundus autofluorescence (FAF). The objective was to develop and evaluate the performance of a novel M3 deep learning framework on RPD detection. Materials and Methods A deep learning framework M3 was developed to detect RPD presence accurately using CFP alone, FAF alone, or both, employing >8000 CFP-FAF image pairs obtained prospectively (Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2). The M3 framework includes multi-modal (detection from single or multiple image modalities), multi-task (training different tasks simultaneously to improve generalizability), and multi-attention (improving ensembled feature representation) operation. Performance on RPD detection was compared with state-of-the-art deep learning models and 13 ophthalmologists; performance on detection of two other AMD features (geographic atrophy and pigmentary abnormalities) was also evaluated. Results For RPD detection, M3 achieved area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.832, 0.931, and 0.933 for CFP alone, FAF alone, and both, respectively. M3 performance on CFP was very substantially superior to human retinal specialists (median F1-score 0.644 versus 0.350). External validation (on Rotterdam Study, Netherlands) demonstrated high accuracy on CFP alone (AUROC 0.965). The M3 framework also accurately detected geographic atrophy and pigmentary abnormalities (AUROC 0.909 and 0.912, respectively), demonstrating its generalizability. Conclusion This study demonstrates the successful development, robust evaluation, and external validation of a novel deep learning framework that enables accessible, accurate, and automated AMD diagnosis and prognosis.
Precision medicine is becoming a focus in medical research recently, as its implementation brings values to all stakeholders in the healthcare system. Various statistical methodologies have been developed tackling problems in different aspects of this field, e.g., assessing treatment heterogeneity, identifying patient subgroups, or building treatment decision models. However, there is a lack of new tools devoted to selecting and prioritizing predictive biomarkers. We propose a novel tree-based ensemble method, random interaction forest (RIF), to generate predictive importance scores and prioritize candidate biomarkers for constructing refined treatment decision models. RIF was evaluated by comparing with the conventional random forest and univariable regression methods and showed favorable properties under various simulation scenarios. We applied the proposed RIF method to a biomarker dataset from two phase III clinical trials of bezlotoxumab on $textit{Clostridium difficile}$ infection recurrence and obtained biologically meaningful results.
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