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Register a new userAsymptotic behavior for a modified Maki-Thompson model with directed inter-group interactions
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In this work we propose a new extension for the Maki-Thompson rumor model which incorporates inter-group directed contacts. The model is defined on an homogeneously mixing population where the existence of two differentiated groups of individuals is assumed. While individuals of one group have an active role in the spreading process, individuals of the other group only contribute in stifling the rumor provided they would contacted. For this model we measure the impact of dissemination by studying the remaining proportion of ignorants of both groups at the end of the process. In addition we discuss some examples and possible applications.
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We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model. This structure is realized starting from a $k$-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, $c$ additional links in such a way that $k$ and $c$ are tuneable parameter for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter $c$. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of $c$ is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.
We introduce an extension of the frog model to Euclidean space and prove properties for the spread of active particles. Fix $r>0$ and place a particle at each point $x$ of a unit intensity Poisson point process $mathcal P subseteq mathbb R^d - mathbb B(0,r)$. Around each point in $mathcal{P}$, put a ball of radius $r$. A particle at the origin performs Brownian motion. When it hits the ball around $x$ for some $x in mathcal P$, new particles begin independent Brownian motions from the centers of the balls in the cluster containing $x$. Subsequent visits to the cluster do nothing. This waking process continues indefinitely. For $r$ smaller than the critical threshold of continuum percolation, we show that the set of activated points in $mathcal P$ approximates a linearly expanding ball. Moreover, in any fixed ball the set of active particles converges to a unit intensity Poisson point process.
The study deals with the ruin problem when an insurance company having two business branches, life insurance and non-life insurance, invests its reserve into a risky asset with the price dynamics given by a geometric Brownian motion. We prove a result on smoothness of the ruin probability as a function of the initial capital and obtain for it an integro-differential equation understood in the classical sense. For the case of exponentially distributed jumps we show that the survival probability is a solution of an ordinary differential equation of the 4th order. Asymptotic analysis of the latter leads to the conclusion that the ruin probability decays to zero in the same way as in the already studied cases of models with one-side jumps.
Aldous [(2007) Preprint] defined a gossip process in which space is a discrete $Ntimes N$ torus, and the state of the process at time $t$ is the set of individuals who know the information. Information spreads from a site to its nearest neighbors at rate 1/4 each and at rate $N^{-alpha}$ to a site chosen at random from the torus. We will be interested in the case in which $alpha<3$, where the long range transmission significantly accelerates the time at which everyone knows the information. We prove three results that precisely describe the spread of information in a slightly simplified model on the real torus. The time until everyone knows the information is asymptotically $T=(2-2alpha/3)N^{alpha/3}log N$. If $rho_s$ is the fraction of the population who know the information at time $s$ and $varepsilon$ is small then, for large $N$, the time until $rho_s$ reaches $varepsilon$ is $T(varepsilon)approx T+N^{alpha/3}log (3varepsilon /M)$, where $M$ is a random variable determined by the early spread of the information. The value of $rho_s$ at time $s=T(1/3)+tN^{alpha/3}$ is almost a deterministic function $h(t)$ which satisfies an odd looking integro-differential equation. The last result confirms a heuristic calculation of Aldous.
By introducing a $int dt , gleft(Tr Phi^2(t)right)^2$ term into the action of the $c=1$ matrix model of two-dimensional quantum gravity, we find a new critical behavior for random surfaces. The planar limit of the path integral generates multiple spherical ``bubbles which touch one another at single points. At a special value of $g$, the sum over connected surfaces behaves as $Delta^2 logDelta$, where $Delta$ is the cosmological constant (the sum over surfaces of area $A$ goes as $A^{-3}$). For comparison, in the conventional $c=1$ model the sum over planar surfaces behaves as $Delta^2/ logDelta$.
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