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Register a new userA Theory of Selective Prediction
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Added by
Mingda Qiao
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We consider a model of selective prediction, where the prediction algorithm is given a data sequence in an online fashion and asked to predict a pre-specified statistic of the upcoming data points. The algorithm is allowed to choose when to make the prediction as well as the length of the prediction window, possibly depending on the observations so far. We prove that, even without any distributional assumption on the input data stream, a large family of statistics can be estimated to non-trivial accuracy. To give one concrete example, suppose that we are given access to an arbitrary binary sequence $x_1, ldots, x_n$ of length $n$. Our goal is to accurately predict the average observation, and we are allowed to choose the window over which the prediction is made: for some $t < n$ and $m le n - t$, after seeing $t$ observations we predict the average of $x_{t+1}, ldots, x_{t+m}$. This particular problem was first studied in Drucker (2013) and referred to as the density prediction game. We show that the expected squared error of our prediction can be bounded by $O(frac{1}{log n})$ and prove a matching lower bound, which resolves an open question raised in Drucker (2013). This result holds for any sequence (that is not adaptive to when the prediction is made, or the predicted value), and the expectation of the error is with respect to the randomness of the prediction algorithm. Our results apply to more general statistics of a sequence of observations, and we highlight several open directions for future work.
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We study the selective learning problem introduced by Qiao and Valiant (2019), in which the learner observes $n$ labeled data points one at a time. At a time of its choosing, the learner selects a window length $w$ and a model $hatell$ from the model class $mathcal{L}$, and then labels the next $w$ data points using $hatell$. The excess risk incurred by the learner is defined as the difference between the average loss of $hatell$ over those $w$ data points and the smallest possible average loss among all models in $mathcal{L}$ over those $w$ data points. We give an improved algorithm, termed the hybrid exponential weights algorithm, that achieves an expected excess risk of $O((loglog|mathcal{L}| + loglog n)/log n)$. This result gives a doubly exponential improvement in the dependence on $|mathcal{L}|$ over the best known bound of $O(sqrt{|mathcal{L}|/log n})$. We complement the positive result with an almost matching lower bound, which suggests the worst-case optimality of the algorithm. We also study a more restrictive family of learning algorithms that are bounded-recall in the sense that when a prediction window of length $w$ is chosen, the learners decision only depends on the most recent $w$ data points. We analyze an exponential weights variant of the ERM algorithm in Qiao and Valiant (2019). This new algorithm achieves an expected excess risk of $O(sqrt{log |mathcal{L}|/log n})$, which is shown to be nearly optimal among all bounded-recall learners. Our analysis builds on a generalized version of the selective mean prediction problem in Drucker (2013); Qiao and Valiant (2019), which may be of independent interest.
Ensuring differential privacy of models learned from sensitive user data is an important goal that has been studied extensively in recent years. It is now known that for some basic learning problems, especially those involving high-dimensional data, producing an accurate private model requires much more data than learning without privacy. At the same time, in many applications it is not necessary to expose the model itself. Instead users may be allowed to query the prediction model on their inputs only through an appropriate interface. Here we formulate the problem of ensuring privacy of individual predictions and investigate the overheads required to achieve it in several standard models of classification and regression. We first describe a simple baseline approach based on training several models on disjoint subsets of data and using standard private aggregation techniques to predict. We show that this approach has nearly optimal sample complexity for (realizable) PAC learning of any class of Boolean functions. At the same time, without strong assumptions on the data distribution, the aggregation step introduces a substantial overhead. We demonstrate that this overhead can be avoided for the well-studied class of thresholds on a line and for a number of standard settings of convex regression. The analysis of our algorithm for learning thresholds relies crucially on strong generalization guarantees that we establish for all differentially private prediction algorithms.
How quickly can a given class of concepts be learned from examples? It is common to measure the performance of a supervised machine learning algorithm by plotting its learning curve, that is, the decay of the error rate as a function of the number of training examples. However, the classical theoretical framework for understanding learnability, the PAC model of Vapnik-Chervonenkis and Valiant, does not explain the behavior of learning curves: the distribution-free PAC model of learning can only bound the upper envelope of the learning curves over all possible data distributions. This does not match the practice of machine learning, where the data source is typically fixed in any given scenario, while the learner may choose the number of training examples on the basis of factors such as computational resources and desired accuracy. In this paper, we study an alternative learning model that better captures such practical aspects of machine learning, but still gives rise to a complete theory of the learnable in the spirit of the PAC model. More precisely, we consider the problem of universal learning, which aims to understand the performance of learning algorithms on every data distribution, but without requiring uniformity over the distribution. The main result of this paper is a remarkable trichotomy: there are only three possible rates of universal learning. More precisely, we show that the learning curves of any given concept class decay either at an exponential, linear, or arbitrarily slow rates. Moreover, each of these cases is completely characterized by appropriate combinatorial parameters, and we exhibit optimal learning algorithms that achieve the best possible rate in each case. For concreteness, we consider in this paper only the realizable case, though analogous results are expected to extend to more general learning scenarios.
In this work we provide a theoretical framework for structured prediction that generalizes the existing theory of surrogate methods for binary and multiclass classification based on estimating conditional probabilities with smooth convex surrogates (e.g. logistic regression). The theory relies on a natural characterization of structural properties of the task loss and allows to derive statistical guarantees for many widely used methods in the context of multilabeling, ranking, ordinal regression and graph matching. In particular, we characterize the smooth convex surrogates compatible with a given task loss in terms of a suitable Bregman divergence composed with a link function. This allows to derive tight bounds for the calibration function and to obtain novel results on existing surrogate frameworks for structured prediction such as conditional random fields and quadratic surrogates.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated dominating performance in many fields; since AlexNet, networks used in practice are going wider and deeper. On the theoretical side, a long line of works has been focusing on training neural networks with one hidden layer. The theory of multi-layer networks remains largely unsettled. In this work, we prove why stochastic gradient descent (SGD) can find $textit{global minima}$ on the training objective of DNNs in $textit{polynomial time}$. We only make two assumptions: the inputs are non-degenerate and the network is over-parameterized. The latter means the network width is sufficiently large: $textit{polynomial}$ in $L$, the number of layers and in $n$, the number of samples. Our key technique is to derive that, in a sufficiently large neighborhood of the random initialization, the optimization landscape is almost-convex and semi-smooth even with ReLU activations. This implies an equivalence between over-parameterized neural networks and neural tangent kernel (NTK) in the finite (and polynomial) width setting. As concrete examples, starting from randomly initialized weights, we prove that SGD can attain 100% training accuracy in classification tasks, or minimize regression loss in linear convergence speed, with running time polynomial in $n,L$. Our theory applies to the widely-used but non-smooth ReLU activation, and to any smooth and possibly non-convex loss functions. In terms of network architectures, our theory at least applies to fully-connected neural networks, convolutional neural networks (CNN), and residual neural networks (ResNet).
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