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Register a new userTurning Gravitationally Lensed Supernovae into Cosmological Probes
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Recently, there have been two landmark discoveries of gravitationally lensed supernovae: the first multiply-imaged SN, Refsdal, and the first Type Ia SN resolved into multiple images, SN iPTF16geu. Fitting the multiple light curves of such objects can deliver measurements of the lensing time delays, which are the difference in arrival times for the separate images. These measurements provide precise tests of lens models or constraints on the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters that are independent of the local distance ladder. Over the next decade, accurate time delay measurements will be needed for the tens to hundreds of lensed SNe to be found by wide-field time-domain surveys such as LSST and WFIRST. We have developed an open source software package for simulations and time delay measurements of multiply-imaged SNe, including an improved characterization of the uncertainty caused by microlensing. We describe simulations using the package that suggest a before-peak detection of the leading image enables a more accurate and precise time delay measurement (by ~1 and ~2 days, respectively), when compared to an after-peak detection. We also conclude that fitting the effects of microlensing without an accurate prior often leads to biases in the time delay measurement and over-fitting to the data, but that employing a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) technique is sufficient for determining the uncertainty due to microlensing.
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We report observations of three gravitationally lensed supernovae (SNe) in the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH) Multi-Cycle Treasury program. These objects, SN CLO12Car (z = 1.28), SN CLN12Did (z = 0.85), and SN CLA11Tib (z = 1.14), are located behind three different clusters, MACSJ1720.2+3536 (z = 0.391), RXJ1532.9+3021 (z = 0.345), and Abell 383 (z = 0.187), respectively. Each SN was detected in Hubble Space Telescope (HST) optical and infrared images. Based on photometric classification, we find that SNe CLO12Car and CLN12Did are likely to be Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), while the classification of SN CLA11Tib is inconclusive. Using multi-color light-curve fits to determine a standardized SN Ia luminosity distance, we infer that SN CLO12Car was approximately 1.0 +/- 0.2 mag brighter than field SNe Ia at a similar redshift and ascribe this to gravitational lens magnification. Similarly, SN CLN12Did is approximately 0.2 +/- 0.2 mag brighter than field SNe Ia. We derive independent estimates of the predicted magnification from CLASH strong+weak lensing maps of the clusters: 0.83 +/- 0.16 mag for SN CLO12Car, 0.28 +/- 0.08 mag for SN CLN12Did, and 0.43 +/- 0.11 mag for SN CLA11Tib. The two SNe Ia provide a new test of the cluster lens model predictions: we find that the magnifications based on the SN Ia brightness and those predicted by the lens maps are consistent. Our results herald the promise of future observations of samples of cluster-lensed SNe Ia (from the ground or space) to help illuminate the dark-matter distribution in clusters of galaxies, through the direct determination of absolute magnifications.
Using three magnified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) detected behind CLASH clusters, we perform a first pilot study to see whether standardizable candles can be used to calibrate cluster mass maps created from strong lensing observations. Such calibrations will be crucial when next generation HST cluster surveys (e.g. FRONTIER) provide magnification maps that will, in turn, form the basis for the exploration of the high redshift Universe. We classify SNe using combined photometric and spectroscopic observations, finding two of the three to be clearly of type SN Ia and the third probable. The SNe exhibit significant amplification, up to a factor of 1.7 at $sim5sigma$ significance (SN-L2). We conducted this as a blind study to avoid fine tuning of parameters, finding a mean amplification difference between SNe and the cluster lensing models of $0.09 pm 0.09^{stat} pm 0.05^{sys}$ mag. This impressive agreement suggests no tension between cluster mass models and high redshift standardized SNe Ia. However, the measured statistical dispersion of $sigma_{mu}=0.21$ mag appeared large compared to the dispersion expected based on statistical uncertainties ($0.14$). Further work with the supernova and cluster lensing models, post unblinding, reduced the measured dispersion to $sigma_{mu}=0.12$. An explicit choice should thus be made as to whether SNe are used unblinded to improve the model, or blinded to test the model. As the lensed SN samples grow larger, this technique will allow improved constraints on assumptions regarding e.g. the structure of the dark matter halo.
Cadenced optical imaging surveys in the next decade will be capable of detecting time-varying galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses in large numbers, increasing the size of the statistically well-defined samples of multiply-imaged quasars by two orders of magnitude, and discovering the first strongly-lensed supernovae. We carry out a detailed calculation of the likely yields of several planned surveys, using realistic distributions for the lens and source properties and taking magnification bias and image configuration detectability into account. We find that upcoming wide-field synoptic surveys should detect several thousand lensed quasars. In particular, the LSST should find 8000 lensed quasars, 3000 of which will have well-measured time delays, and also ~130 lensed supernovae, which is compared with ~15 lensed supernovae predicted to be found by the JDEM. We predict the quad fraction to be ~15% for the lensed quasars and ~30% for the lensed supernovae. Generating a mock catalogue of around 1500 well-observed double-image lenses, we compute the available precision on the Hubble constant and the dark energy equation parameters for the time delay distance experiment (assuming priors from Planck): the predicted marginalised 68% confidence intervals are sigma(w_0)=0.15, sigma(w_a)=0.41, and sigma(h)=0.017. While this is encouraging in the sense that these uncertainties are only 50% larger than those predicted for a space-based type-Ia supernova sample, we show how the dark energy figure of merit degrades with decreasing knowledge of the the lens mass distribution. (Abridged)
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) that are multiply imaged by gravitational lensing can extend the SN Ia Hubble diagram to very high redshifts $(zgtrsim 2)$, probe potential SN Ia evolution, and deliver high-precision constraints on $H_0$, $w$, and $Omega_m$ via time delays. However, only one, iPTF16geu, has been found to date, and many more are needed to achieve these goals. To increase the multiply imaged SN Ia discovery rate, we present a simple algorithm for identifying gravitationally lensed SN Ia candidates in cadenced, wide-field optical imaging surveys. The technique is to look for supernovae that appear to be hosted by elliptical galaxies, but that have absolute magnitudes implied by the apparent hosts photometric redshifts that are far brighter than the absolute magnitudes of normal SNe Ia (the brightest type of supernovae found in elliptical galaxies). Importantly, this purely photometric method does not require the ability to resolve the lensed images for discovery. AGN, the primary sources of contamination that affect the method, can be controlled using catalog cross-matches and color cuts. Highly magnified core-collapse supernovae will also be discovered as a byproduct of the method. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast that LSST can discover up to 500 multiply imaged SNe Ia using this technique in a 10-year $z$-band search, more than an order of magnitude improvement over previous estimates (Oguri & Marshall 2010). We also predict that ZTF should find up to 10 multiply imaged SNe Ia using this technique in a 3-year $R$-band search---despite the fact that this survey will not resolve a single system.
Time delays between the multiple images of strongly lensed Type Ia supernovae (glsneia) have the potential to deliver precise cosmological constraints, but the effects of microlensing on the measurement have not been studied in detail. Here we quantify the effect of microlensing on the glsnia yield of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and the effect of microlensing on the precision and accuracy of time delays that can be extracted from LSST glsneia. Microlensing has a negligible effect on the LSST glsnia yield, but it can be increased by a factor of $sim$2 to 930 systems using a novel photometric identification technique based on spectral template fitting. Crucially, the microlensing of glsneia is achromatic until 3 rest-frame weeks after the explosion, making the early-time color curves microlensing-insensitive time delay indicators. By fitting simulated flux and color observations of microlensed glsneia with their underlying, unlensed spectral templates, we forecast the distribution of absolute time delay error due to microlensing for LSST, which is unbiased at the sub-percent level and peaked at 1% for color curve observations in the achromatic phase, while for light curve observations it is comparable to state-of-the-art mass modeling uncertainties (4%). About 70% of LSST glsnia images should be discovered during the achromatic phase, indicating that microlensing time delay uncertainties can be minimized if prompt multicolor follow-up observations are obtained. Accounting for microlensing, the 1--2 day time delay on the recently discovered glsnia iPTF16geu can be measured to 40% precision, limiting its cosmological utility.
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