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Register a new userAttention-based Recurrent Neural Network for Urban Vehicle Trajectory Prediction
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Added by
Seongjin Choi
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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With the increasing deployment of diverse positioning devices and location-based services, a huge amount of spatial and temporal information has been collected and accumulated as trajectory data. Among many applications, trajectory-based location prediction is gaining increasing attention because of its potential to improve the performance of many applications in multiple domains. This research focuses on trajectory sequence prediction methods using trajectory data obtained from the vehicles in urban traffic network. As Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) model is previously proposed, we propose an improved method of Attention-based Recurrent Neural Network model(ARNN) for urban vehicle trajectory prediction. We introduce attention mechanism into urban vehicle trajectory prediction to explain the impact of network-level traffic state information. The model is evaluated using the Bluetooth data of private vehicles collected in Brisbane, Australia with 5 metrics which are widely used in the sequence modeling. The proposed ARNN model shows significant performance improvement compared to the existing RNN models considering not only the cells to be visited but also the alignment of the cells in sequence.
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Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their models cannot adapt to the driving policy of the predicted target human driver. In this work, we propose to overcome these two shortcomings by a Bayesian recurrent neural network model consisting of Bayesian-neural-network-based policy model and known physical model of the scenario. Bayesian neural network can ensemble complicated output distribution, enabling rich family of trajectory distribution. The embedded physical model ensures feasibility of the distribution. Moreover, the adopted gradient-based training method allows direct optimization for better performance in long prediction horizon. Furthermore, a particle-filter-based parameter adaptation algorithm is designed to adapt the policy Bayesian neural network to the predicted target online. Effectiveness of the proposed methods is verified with a toy example with multi-modal stochastic feedback gain and naturalistic car following data.
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