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Register a new userImpact of Data Normalization on Deep Neural Network for Time Series Forecasting
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For the last few years it has been observed that the Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has achieved an excellent success in image classification, speech recognition. But DNNs are suffer great deal of challenges for time series forecasting because most of the time series data are nonlinear in nature and highly dynamic in behaviour. The time series forecasting has a great impact on our socio-economic environment. Hence, to deal with these challenges its need to be redefined the DNN model and keeping this in mind, data pre-processing, network architecture and network parameters are need to be consider before feeding the data into DNN models. Data normalization is the basic data pre-processing technique form which learning is to be done. The effectiveness of time series forecasting is heavily depend on the data normalization technique. In this paper, different normalization methods are used on time series data before feeding the data into the DNN model and we try to find out the impact of each normalization technique on DNN to forecast the time series. Here the Deep Recurrent Neural Network (DRNN) is used to predict the closing index of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) by using BSE and NYSE time series data.
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Cyber-physical systems often consist of entities that interact with each other over time. Meanwhile, as part of the continued digitization of industrial processes, various sensor technologies are deployed that enable us to record time-varying attributes (a.k.a., time series) of such entities, thus producing correlated time series. To enable accurate forecasting on such correlated time series, this paper proposes two models that combine convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). The first model employs a CNN on each individual time series, combines the convoluted features, and then applies an RNN on top of the convoluted features in the end to enable forecasting. The second model adds additional auto-encoders into the individual CNNs, making the second model a multi-task learning model, which provides accurate and robust forecasting. Experiments on two real-world correlated time series data set suggest that the proposed two models are effective and outperform baselines in most settings. This report extends the paper Correlated Time Series Forecasting using Multi-Task Deep Neural Networks, to appear in ACM CIKM 2018, by providing additional experimental results.
Deep Learning (DL) models can be used to tackle time series analysis tasks with great success. However, the performance of DL models can degenerate rapidly if the data are not appropriately normalized. This issue is even more apparent when DL is used for financial time series forecasting tasks, where the non-stationary and multimodal nature of the data pose significant challenges and severely affect the performance of DL models. In this work, a simple, yet effective, neural layer, that is capable of adaptively normalizing the input time series, while taking into account the distribution of the data, is proposed. The proposed layer is trained in an end-to-end fashion using back-propagation and leads to significant performance improvements compared to other evaluated normalization schemes. The proposed method differs from traditional normalization methods since it learns how to perform normalization for a given task instead of using a fixed normalization scheme. At the same time, it can be directly applied to any new time series without requiring re-training. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using a large-scale limit order book dataset, as well as a load forecasting dataset.
Nowadays, multivariate time series data are increasingly collected in various real world systems, e.g., power plants, wearable devices, etc. Anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series refer to identifying abnormal status in certain time steps and pinpointing the root causes. Building such a system, however, is challenging since it not only requires to capture the temporal dependency in each time series, but also need encode the inter-correlations between different pairs of time series. In addition, the system should be robust to noise and provide operators with different levels of anomaly scores based upon the severity of different incidents. Despite the fact that a number of unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms have been developed, few of them can jointly address these challenges. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Scale Convolutional Recurrent Encoder-Decoder (MSCRED), to perform anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series data. Specifically, MSCRED first constructs multi-scale (resolution) signature matrices to characterize multiple levels of the system statuses in different time steps. Subsequently, given the signature matrices, a convolutional encoder is employed to encode the inter-sensor (time series) correlations and an attention based Convolutional Long-Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network is developed to capture the temporal patterns. Finally, based upon the feature maps which encode the inter-sensor correlations and temporal information, a convolutional decoder is used to reconstruct the input signature matrices and the residual signature matrices are further utilized to detect and diagnose anomalies. Extensive empirical studies based on a synthetic dataset and a real power plant dataset demonstrate that MSCRED can outperform state-of-the-art baseline methods.
Time series forecasting based on deep architectures has been gaining popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex non-linear temporal dynamics. The recurrent neural network is one such model capable of handling variable-length input and output. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in deep generative models and the concept of state space models to propose a stochastic adaptation of the recurrent neural network for multistep-ahead time series forecasting, which is trained with stochastic gradient variational Bayes. In our model design, the transition function of the recurrent neural network, which determines the evolution of the hidden states, is stochastic rather than deterministic as in a regular recurrent neural network; this is achieved by incorporating a latent random variable into the transition process which captures the stochasticity of the temporal dynamics. Our model preserves the architectural workings of a recurrent neural network for which all relevant information is encapsulated in its hidden states, and this flexibility allows our model to be easily integrated into any deep architecture for sequential modelling. We test our model on a wide range of datasets from finance to healthcare; results show that the stochastic recurrent neural network consistently outperforms its deterministic counterpart.
Multivariate time-series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications. It is a challenging problem as one needs to consider both intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series correlations simultaneously. Recently, there have been multiple works trying to capture both correlations, but most, if not all of them only capture temporal correlations in the time domain and resort to pre-defined priors as inter-series relationships. In this paper, we propose Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (StemGNN) to further improve the accuracy of multivariate time-series forecasting. StemGNN captures inter-series correlations and temporal dependencies textit{jointly} in the textit{spectral domain}. It combines Graph Fourier Transform (GFT) which models inter-series correlations and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) which models temporal dependencies in an end-to-end framework. After passing through GFT and DFT, the spectral representations hold clear patterns and can be predicted effectively by convolution and sequential learning modules. Moreover, StemGNN learns inter-series correlations automatically from the data without using pre-defined priors. We conduct extensive experiments on ten real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of StemGNN. Code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/StemGNN/
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