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Register a new userUnique Science from a Coordinated LSST-WFIRST Survey of the Galactic Bulge
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NASAs WFIRST mission will perform a wide-field, NIR survey of the Galactic Bulge to search for exoplanets via the microlensing techniques. As the mission is due to launch in the mid-2020s, around half-way through the LSST Main Survey, we have a unique opportunity to explore synergistic science from two landmark programs. LSST can survey the entire footprint of the WFIRST microlensing survey in a single Deep Drilling Field. Here we explore the great scientific potential of this proposal and recommend the most effective observing strategies.
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The overwhelming majority of objects visible to LSST lie within the Galactic Plane. Though many previous surveys have avoided this region for fear of stellar crowding, LSSTs spatial resolution combined with its state-of-the-art Difference Image Analysis mean that it can conduct a high cadence survey of most of the Galaxy for the first time. Here we outline the many areas of science that would greatly benefit from an LSST survey that included the Galactic Plane, Magellanic Clouds and Bulge at a cadence of 2-3 d. Particular highlights include measuring the mass spectrum of black holes, and mapping the population of exoplanets in the Galaxy in relation to variations in star forming environments. But the same survey data will provide a goldmine for a wide range of science, and we explore possible survey strategies which maximize the scientific return for a number of fields including young stellar objects, cataclysmic variables and Neptune Trojans.
The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will monitor $sim 2$ deg$^2$ toward the Galactic bulge in a wide ($sim 1-2~mu$m) W149 filter at 15-minute cadence with exposure times of $sim$50s for 6 seasons of 72 days each, for a total $sim$41,000 exposures taken over $sim$432 days, spread over the 5-year prime mission. This will be one of the deepest exposures of the sky ever taken, reaching a photon-noise photometric precision of 0.01 mag per exposure and collecting a total of $sim 10^9$ photons over the course of the survey for a W149$_{rm AB}sim 21$ star. Of order $4 times 10^7$ stars will be monitored with W149$_{rm AB}$<21, and 10$^8$ stars with W145$_{rm AB}$<23. The WFIRST microlensing survey will detect $sim$54,000 microlensing events, of which roughly 1% ($sim$500) will be due to isolated black holes, and $sim$3% ($sim$1600) will be due to isolated neutron stars. It will be sensitive to (effectively) isolated compact objects with masses as low as the mass of Pluto, thereby enabling a measurement of the compact object mass function over 10 orders of magnitude. Assuming photon-noise limited precision, it will detect $sim 10^5$ transiting planets with sizes as small as $sim 2~R_oplus$, perform asteroseismology of $sim 10^6$ giant stars, measure the proper motions to $sim 0.3%$ and parallaxes to $sim 10%$ for the $sim 6 times 10^6$ disk and bulge stars in the survey area, and directly detect $sim 5 times 10^3$ Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with diameters down to $sim 10$ km, as well as detect $sim 10^3$ occulations of stars by TNOs during the survey. All of this science will completely serendipitous, i.e., it will not require modifications of the WFIRST optimal microlensing survey design. Allowing for some minor deviation from the optimal design, such as monitoring the Galactic center, would enable an even broader range of transformational science.
The focus of this report is on the opportunities enabled by the combination of LSST, Euclid and WFIRST, the optical surveys that will be an essential part of the next decades astronomy. The sum of these surveys has the potential to be significantly greater than the contributions of the individual parts. As is detailed in this report, the combination of these surveys should give us multi-wavelength high-resolution images of galaxies and broadband data covering much of the stellar energy spectrum. These stellar and galactic data have the potential of yielding new insights into topics ranging from the formation history of the Milky Way to the mass of the neutrino. However, enabling the astronomy community to fully exploit this multi-instrument data set is a challenging technical task: for much of the science, we will need to combine the photometry across multiple wavelengths with varying spectral and spatial resolution. We identify some of the key science enabled by the combined surveys and the key technical challenges in achieving the synergies.
Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year. Surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is studying the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time distribution ($t_E$). However, systematics in individual light curves as well as over-simplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earths motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian Process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the timescale distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and previous analyses over-estimated the number of long timescale ($t_E>100$ days) events due to their over simplistic models ignoring parallax effects and stellar variability. We use our fits to identify hundreds of events that are likely black holes.
The Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is expected to launch in the mid-2020s. With its wide-field near-infrared (NIR) camera, it will survey the sky to unprecedented detail. As part of normal operations and as the result of multiple expected dedicated surveys, WFIRST will produce several relatively wide-field (tens of square degrees) deep (limiting magnitude of 28 or fainter) fields. In particular, a planned supernova survey is expected to image 3 deep fields in the LSST footprint roughly every 5 days over 2 years. Stacking all data, this survey will produce, over all WFIRST supernova fields in the LSST footprint, ~12-25 deg^2 and ~5-15 deg^2 regions to depths of ~28 mag and ~29 mag, respectively. We suggest LSST undertake mini-surveys that will match the WFIRST cadence and simultaneously observe the supernova survey fields during the 2-year WFIRST supernova survey, achieving a stacked depth similar to that of the WFIRST data. We also suggest additional observations of these same regions throughout the LSST survey to get deep images earlier, have long-term monitoring in the fields, and produce deeper images overall. These fields will provide a legacy for cosmology, extragalactic, and transient/variable science.
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