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Register a new userAssociating Host Galaxy Candidates to Massive Black Hole Binaries resolved by Pulsar Timing Arrays
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We propose a novel methodology to select host galaxy candidates of future pulsar timing array (PTA) detections of resolved gravitational waves (GWs) from massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). The method exploits the physical dependence of the GW amplitude on the MBHB chirp mass and distance to the observer, together with empirical MBH mass-host galaxy correlations, to rank potential host galaxies in the mass-redshift plane. This is coupled to a null-stream based likelihood evaluation of the GW amplitude and sky position in a Bayesian framework that assigns to each galaxy a probability of hosting the MBHB generating the GW signal. We test our algorithm on a set of realistic simulations coupling the likely properties of the first PTA resolved GW signal to synthetic all-sky galaxy maps. For a foreseeable PTA sky-localization precision of 100 squared degrees, we find that the GW source is hosted with 50% (90%) probability within a restricted number of <50 (<500) potential hosts. These figures are orders of magnitude smaller than the total number of galaxies within the PTA sky error-box, enabling extensive electromagnetic follow-up campaigns on a limited number of targets.
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Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are expected to detect gravitational waves (GWs) from individual low-redshift (z<1.5) compact supermassive (M>10^9 Msun) black hole (SMBH) binaries with orbital periods of approx. 0.1 - 10 yrs. Identifying the electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of these sources would provide confirmation of putative direct detections of GWs, present a rare opportunity to study the environments of compact SMBH binaries, and could enable the use of these sources as standard sirens for cosmology. Here we consider the feasibility of such an EM identification. We show that because the host galaxies of resolved PTA sources are expected to be exceptionally massive and rare, it should be possible to find unique hosts of resolved sources out to redshift z=0.2. At higher redshifts, the PTA error boxes are larger, and may contain as many as 100 massive-galaxy interlopers. The number of candidates, however, remains tractable for follow-up searches in upcoming wide-field EM surveys. We develop a toy model to characterize the dynamics and the thermal emission from a geometrically thin, gaseous disc accreting onto a PTA-source SMBH binary. Our model predicts that at optical and infrared frequencies, the source should appear similar to a typical luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN). However, owing to the evacuation of the accretion flow by the binarys tidal torques, the source might have an unusually low soft X-ray luminosity and weak UV and broad optical emission lines, as compared to an AGN powered by a single SMBH with the same total mass. For sources near z=1, the decrement in the rest-frame UV should be observable as an extremely red optical color. These properties would make the PTA sources stand out among optically luminous AGN, and could allow their unique identification.
Pulsar Timing Arrays are a prime tool to study unexplored astrophysical regimes with gravitational waves. Here we show that the detection of gravitational radiation from individually resolvable super-massive black hole binary systems can yield direct information about the masses and spins of the black holes, provided that the gravitational-wave induced timing fluctuations both at the pulsar and at the Earth are detected. This in turn provides a map of the non-linear dynamics of the gravitational field and a new avenue to tackle open problems in astrophysics connected to the formation and evolution of super-massive black holes. We discuss the potential, the challenges and the limitations of these observations.
We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on astrophysical parameters. For PTAs specifically, we interpolate over the parameter space of supermassive black-hole binary environments, including 3-body stellar scattering, and evolving orbital eccentricity. We illustrate our approach on mock data, and assess the prospects for inference with data similar to the NANOGrav 9-yr data release.
Precision timing of large arrays (>50) of millisecond pulsars will detect the nanohertz gravitational-wave emission from supermassive binary black holes within the next ~3-7 years. We review the scientific opportunities of these detections, the requirements for success, and the synergies with electromagnetic instruments operating in the 2020s.
Supermassive black hole -- host galaxy relations are key to the computation of the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency band. It has been recently pointed out that standard relations adopted in GWB computations are in fact biased-high. We show that when this selection bias is taken into account, the expected GWB in the PTA band is a factor of about three smaller than previously estimated. Compared to other scaling relations recently published in the literature, the median amplitude of the signal at $f=1$yr$^{-1}$ drops from $1.3times10^{-15}$ to $4times10^{-16}$. Although this solves any potential tension between theoretical predictions and recent PTA limits without invoking other dynamical effects (such as stalling, eccentricity or strong coupling with the galactic environment), it also makes the GWB detection more challenging.
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