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Register a new userA homogeneous aa index: 1. Secular variation
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Added by
Mike Lockwood Prof.
Publication date
2018
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Originally complied for 1868-1967 and subsequently continued so that it now covers 150 years, the $aa$ index has become a vital resource for studying space climate change. However, there have been debates about the inter-calibration of data from the different stations. In addition, the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field have not previously been allowed for. As a result, the components of the classical $aa$ index for the southern and northern hemispheres ($aa_S$ and $aa_N$) have drifted apart. We here separately correct both $aa_S$ and $aa_N$ for both these effects using the same method as used to generate the classic $aa$ values but allowing ${delta}$, the minimum angular separation of each station from a nominal auroral oval, to vary as calculated using the IGRF-12 and gufm1 models of the intrinsic geomagnetic field. Our approach is to correct the quantized aK-values for each station, originally scaled on the assumption that ${delta}$ values are constant, with time-dependent scale factors that allow for the drift in ${delta}$. This requires revisiting the intercalibration of successive stations used in making the $aa_S$ and $aa_N$ composites. These intercalibrations are defined using independent data and daily averages from 11 years before and after each station change and it is shown that they depend on the time of year. This procedure produces new homogenized hemispheric aa indices, $aa_{HS}$ and $aa_{HN}$, which show centennial-scale changes that are in very close agreement. Calibration problems with the classic $aa$ index are shown to have arisen from drifts in ${delta}$ combined with simpler corrections which gave an incorrect temporal variation and underestimate the rise in $aa$ during the 20th century by about 15%.
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Paper 1 [Lockwood et al., 2018] generated annual means of a new version of the $aa$ geomagnetic activity index which includes corrections for secular drift in the geographic coordinates of the auroral oval, thereby resolving the difference between the centennial-scale change in the northern and southern hemisphere indices, $aa_N$ and $aa_S$. However, other hemispheric asymmetries in the $aa$ index remain: in particular, the distributions of 3-hourly $aa_N$ and $aa_S$ values are different and the correlation between them is not high on this timescale ($r = 0.66$). In the present paper, a location-dependant station sensitivity model is developed using the $am$ index (derived from a much more extensive network of stations in both hemispheres) and used to reduce the difference between the hemispheric $aa$ indices and improve their correlation (to $r = 0.79$) by generating corrected 3-hourly hemispheric indices, $aa_{HN}$ and $aa_{HS}$, which also include the secular drift corrections detailed in Paper 1. These are combined into a new, homogeneous $aa$ index, $aa_H$. It is shown that $aa_H$, unlike $aa$, reveals the equinoctial-like time-of-day/time-of-year pattern that is found for the $am$ index.
We construct a new solar cycle phase clock which maps each of the last 18 solar cycles onto a single normalized epoch for the approximately 22 year Hale (magnetic polarity) cycle, using the Hilbert transform of daily sunspot numbers (SSN) since 1818. The occurrences of solar maxima show almost no Hale cycle dependence, confirming that the clock is synchronized to polarity reversals. The odd cycle minima lead the even cycle minima by ~ 1.1 normalized years, whereas the odd cycle terminators (McIntosh et al. (2019)) lag the even cycle terminators by ~ 2.3 normalized years. The mimimum-terminator interval is thus relatively extended for odd cycles and shortened for even ones. We re-engineer the Sargent(1985,2021) R27 index and combine it with our epoch analysis to obtain a high time resolution parameter for 27 day recurrence in aa, <acv(27)>. This reveals that the transition to recurrence, that is, to an ordered solar wind dominated by high speed streams, is fast, occurring within 2-3 solar rotations or less. It resolves an extended late declining phase which is approximately twice as long on even Schwabe cycles as odd. Galactic Cosmic Ray flux rises in step with <acv(27)> but then stays high. Our analysis also identifies a slow timescale trend in SSN that simply tracks the Gleissberg cycle. We find that this trend is in phase with the slow timescale trend in the modulus of sunspot latitudes, and in antiphase with that of the R27 index.
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) often consist of a shock wave, sheath region, and ejecta region. The ejecta regions are divided into two broad classes: magnetic clouds (MC) that exhibit the characteristics of magnetic flux ropes and non-magnetic clouds (NMC) that do not. As CMEs result from eruption of magnetic flux ropes, it is important to answer why NMCs do not have the flux rope features. One claims that NMCs lose their original flux rope features due to the interactions between ICMEs or ICMEs and other large scale structures during their transit in the heliosphere. The other attributes this phenomenon to the geometric selection effect, i.e., when an ICME has its nose (flank, including leg and non-leg flanks) pass through the observing spacecraft, the MC (NMC) features will be detected along the spacecraft trajectory within the ejecta. In this Letter, we examine which explanation is more reasonable through the geometric properties of ICMEs. If the selection effect leads to different ejecta types, MCs should have narrower sheath region compared to NMCs from the statistical point of view, which is confirmed by our statistics. Besides, we find that NMCs have the similar size in solar cycles 23 and 24, and NMCs are smaller than MCs in cycle 23 but larger than MCs in cycle 24. This suggests that most NMCs have their leg flank pass through the spacecraft. Our geometric analyses support that all ICMEs should have a magnetic flux rope structure near 1 AU.
In this study we compared the temporal and periodic variations of the Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the number of different class (C, M, and X) solar X-Ray flares for the last two solar cycles (Cycle 23 and 24). To obtain the correlation between the MCMESI and solar flare numbers the cross correlation analysis was applied to monthly data sets. Also to investigate the periodic behavior of all data sets the Multi Taper Method (MTM) and the Morlet wavelet analysis method were performed with daily data from 2009 to 2018. To evaluate our wavelet analysis Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC) methods were performed. Causal relationships between datasets were further examined by Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) method. In results of our analysis we found followings; 1) The C class X-Ray flare numbers increased about 16 % during the solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, while all other data sets decreased; the MCMESI decreased about 16 % and the number of M and X class flares decreased about 32 %. 2) All the X-Ray solar flare classes show remarkable positive correlation with the MCMESI. While the correlation between the MCMESI and C class flares comes from the general solar cycle trend, it mainly results from the fluctuations in the data in case of the X class flares. 3) In general, all class flare numbers and the MCMESI show similar periodic behavior. 4) The 546 days periodicity detected in the MCMESI may not be of solar origin or at least the solar flares are not the source of this periodicity. 5) C and M Class solar flares have a stronger causative effect on the MCMESI compared to X class solar flares. However the only bidirectional causal relationship is obtained between the MCMESI and C class flare numbers.
We perform and analyze results of a global magnetohydrodyanmic (MHD) simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and extends to 24 R$_{odot}$. Coupling AWSoM to an inner heliosphere (IH) model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulations), optically thin radiative cooling, and Alfven-wave turbulence that accelerates and heats the solar wind. The Alfven-wave description is physically self-consistent, including non-Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low (GL) analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond STEREO A. A detailed comparison study is performed using remote as well as textit{in situ} observations. Although the flux rope structure is not compared directly due to lack of relevant ejecta observation at 1 AU in this event, our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven extreme ultraviolet (EUV) waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, double-front in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., shock propagation direction, shock properties at STEREO A).
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