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Register a new userChromosphere to 1 AU Simulation of the 2011 March 7th Event: A Comprehensive Study of Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation
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We perform and analyze results of a global magnetohydrodyanmic (MHD) simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and extends to 24 R$_{odot}$. Coupling AWSoM to an inner heliosphere (IH) model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulations), optically thin radiative cooling, and Alfven-wave turbulence that accelerates and heats the solar wind. The Alfven-wave description is physically self-consistent, including non-Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low (GL) analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond STEREO A. A detailed comparison study is performed using remote as well as textit{in situ} observations. Although the flux rope structure is not compared directly due to lack of relevant ejecta observation at 1 AU in this event, our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven extreme ultraviolet (EUV) waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, double-front in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., shock propagation direction, shock properties at STEREO A).
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Fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (interplanetary CMEs, or ICMEs) are the drivers of strongest space weather storms such as solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. The connection between space weather impacting solar wind disturbances associated with fast ICMEs at Earth and the characteristics of causative energetic CMEs observed near the Sun is a key question in the study of space weather storms as well as in the development of practical space weather prediction. Such shock-driving fast ICMEs usually expand at supersonic speed during the propagation, resulting in the continuous accumulation of shocked sheath plasma ahead. In this paper, we propose the sheath-accumulating propagation (SAP) model that describe the coevolution of the interplanetary sheath and decelerating ICME ejecta by taking into account the process of upstream solar wind plasma accumulation within the sheath region. Based on the SAP model, we discussed (1) ICME deceleration characteristics, (2) the fundamental condition for fast ICME at Earth, (3) thickness of interplanetary sheath, (4) arrival time prediction and (5) the super-intense geomagnetic storms associated with huge solar flares. We quantitatively show that not only speed but also mass of the CME are crucial in discussing the above five points. The similarities and differences among the SAP model, the drag-based model and the`snow-plough model proposed by citet{tappin2006} are also discussed.
The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, covering ensemble modelling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM). Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is $ME=-9.7$ hours, mean absolute error $MAE=14.3$ hours and root mean square error $RMSE=16.7$ hours, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors ($ME=-6.1$ hours, $MAE=12.8$ hours and $RMSE=14.4$ hours). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most probably owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.
In-situ measurements carried out by spacecraft in radial alignment are critical to advance our knowledge on the evolutionary behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their magnetic structures during propagation through interplanetary space. Yet, the scarcity of radially aligned CME crossings restricts investigations on the evolution of CME magnetic structures to a few case studies, preventing a comprehensive understanding of CME complexity changes during propagation. In this paper, we perform numerical simulations of CMEs interacting with different solar wind streams using the linear force-free spheromak CME model incorporated into the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) model. The novelty of our approach lies in the investigation of the evolution of CME complexity using a swarm of radially aligned, simulated spacecraft. Our scope is to determine under which conditions, and to what extent, CMEs exhibit variations of their magnetic structure and complexity during propagation, as measured by spacecraft that are radially aligned. Results indicate that the interaction with large-scale solar wind structures, and particularly with stream interaction regions, doubles the probability to detect an increase of the CME magnetic complexity between two spacecraft in radial alignment, compared to cases without such interactions. This work represents the first attempt to quantify the probability of detecting complexity changes in CME magnetic structures by spacecraft in radial alignment using numerical simulations, and it provides support to the interpretation of multi-point CME observations involving past, current (such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter), and future missions.
Suzaku detected an enhancement of soft X-ray background associated with solar eruptions on 2013 April 14-15. The solar eruptions were accompanied by an M6.5 solar flare and a coronal mass ejection with magnetic flux ropes. The enhanced soft X-ray background showed a slight variation in half a day and then a clear one in a few hours. The former spectrum was composed of oxygen emission lines, while the later one was characterized by a series of emission lines from highly ionized carbon to silicon. The soft X-ray enhancement originated from geocoronal solar wind charge exchange. However, there appeared to be no significant time correlation with the solar wind proton flux measured by the ACE and WIND satellites. From other solar wind signatures, we considered that an interplanetary shock associated with the coronal mass ejection and a turbulent sheath immediately behind the shock compressed the ambient solar wind ions and then resulted in the soft X-ray enhancement. Furthermore, the enriched emission lines were presumed to be due to an unusual set of ion abundances and ionization states within the coronal mass ejection. We found a better time correlation with the solar wind alpha flux rather than the solar wind proton flux. Our results suggest that the solar wind proton flux is not always a good indicator of geocoronal solar wind charge exchange, especially associated with coronal mass ejections. Instead, the solar wind alpha flux should be investigated when such a soft X-ray enhancement is detected in astronomical observations.
We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event-integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass ejection (CME), and the magnetic field line connection angle. The CME measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.
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