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Register a new userData models for service failure prediction in supply-chain networks
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We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of 0.7 and an average specificity of 0.7 for the 5 studied types of failure. Association Rules reassert the importance of confirmation calls to prevent failures due to customers not at home, show the importance of the time window size, slack time, and geographical location of the customer for the other failure types, and highlight the effect of the retailer company on several failure types. To reduce the occurrence of service failures, our data models could be coupled to optimizers, or used to define counter-measures to be taken by human dispatchers.
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Supply chain network data is a valuable asset for businesses wishing to understand their ethical profile, security of supply, and efficiency. Possession of a dataset alone however is not a sufficient enabler of actionable decisions due to incomplete information. In this paper, we present a graph representation learning approach to uncover hidden dependency links that focal companies may not be aware of. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to represent a supply chain as a heterogeneous knowledge graph with learnable embeddings. We demonstrate that our representation facilitates state-of-the-art performance on link prediction of a global automotive supply chain network using a relational graph convolutional network. It is anticipated that our method will be directly applicable to businesses wishing to sever links with nefarious entities and mitigate risk of supply failure. More abstractly, it is anticipated that our method will be useful to inform representation learning of supply chain networks for downstream tasks beyond link prediction.
Recurrent neural network based solutions are increasingly being used in the analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record data. However, most works focus on prediction accuracy and neglect prediction uncertainty. We propose Deep Kernel Accelerated Failure Time models for the time-to-event prediction task, enabling uncertainty-awareness of the prediction by a pipeline of a recurrent neural network and a sparse Gaussian Process. Furthermore, a deep metric learning based pre-training step is adapted to enhance the proposed model. Our model shows better point estimate performance than recurrent neural network based baselines in experiments on two real-world datasets. More importantly, the predictive variance from our model can be used to quantify the uncertainty estimates of the time-to-event prediction: Our model delivers better performance when it is more confident in its prediction. Compared to related methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout, our model offers better uncertainty estimates by leveraging an analytical solution and is more computationally efficient.
Retrosynthesis prediction is a fundamental problem in organic synthesis, where the task is to identify precursor molecules that can be used to synthesize a target molecule. A key consideration in building neural models for this task is aligning model design with strategies adopted by chemists. Building on this viewpoint, this paper introduces a graph-based approach that capitalizes on the idea that the graph topology of precursor molecules is largely unaltered during a chemical reaction. The model first predicts the set of graph edits transforming the target into incomplete molecules called synthons. Next, the model learns to expand synthons into complete molecules by attaching relevant leaving groups. This decomposition simplifies the architecture, making its predictions more interpretable, and also amenable to manual correction. Our model achieves a top-1 accuracy of $53.7%$, outperforming previous template-free and semi-template-based methods.
Recommending the best course of action for an individual is a major application of individual-level causal effect estimation. This application is often needed in safety-critical domains such as healthcare, where estimating and communicating uncertainty to decision-makers is crucial. We introduce a practical approach for integrating uncertainty estimation into a class of state-of-the-art neural network methods used for individual-level causal estimates. We show that our methods enable us to deal gracefully with situations of no-overlap, common in high-dimensional data, where standard applications of causal effect approaches fail. Further, our methods allow us to handle covariate shift, where test distribution differs to train distribution, common when systems are deployed in practice. We show that when such a covariate shift occurs, correctly modeling uncertainty can keep us from giving overconfident and potentially harmful recommendations. We demonstrate our methodology with a range of state-of-the-art models. Under both covariate shift and lack of overlap, our uncertainty-equipped methods can alert decisions makers when predictions are not to be trusted while outperforming their uncertainty-oblivious counterparts.
A deep neural network model is a powerful framework for learning representations. Usually, it is used to learn the relation $x to y$ by exploiting the regularities in the input $x$. In structured output prediction problems, $y$ is multi-dimensional and structural relations often exist between the dimensions. The motivation of this work is to learn the output dependencies that may lie in the output data in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Unfortunately, feedforward networks are unable to exploit the relations between the outputs. In order to overcome this issue, we propose in this paper a regularization scheme for training neural networks for these particular tasks using a multi-task framework. Our scheme aims at incorporating the learning of the output representation $y$ in the training process in an unsupervised fashion while learning the supervised mapping function $x to y$. We evaluate our framework on a facial landmark detection problem which is a typical structured output task. We show over two public challenging datasets (LFPW and HELEN) that our regularization scheme improves the generalization of deep neural networks and accelerates their training. The use of unlabeled data and label-only data is also explored, showing an additional improvement of the results. We provide an opensource implementation (https://github.com/sbelharbi/structured-output-ae) of our framework.
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