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Register a new userAtmospheric turbulence forecasting with a General Circulation Model for Cerro Paranal
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In addition to astro-meteorological parameters, such as seeing, coherence time and isoplanatic angle, the vertical profile of the Earths atmospheric turbulence strength and velocity is important for instrument design, performance validation and monitoring, and observation scheduling and management. Here we compare these astro-meteorological parameters as well as the vertical profile itself from a forecast model based on a General Circulation Model from the European Centre for Median range Weather Forecasts and the stereo-SCIDAR, a high-sensitivity turbulence profiling instrument in regular operation at Paranal, Chile. The model is fast to process as no spatial nesting or data manipulation is performed. This speed enables the model to be reactive based on the most up to date forecasts. We find that the model is statistically consistent with measurements from stereo-SCIDAR. The correlation of the median turbulence profile from the model and the measurement is 0.98. We also find that the distributions of astro-meteorological parameters are consistent. We compare contemporaneous measurements and show that the free atmosphere seeing, isoplanatic angle and coherence time have correlation values of 0.64, 0.40 and 0.63 respectively. We show and compare the profile sequences from a large number of trial nights. We see that the model is able to forecast the evolution of dominating features. In addition to smart scheduling, ensuring that the most sensitive astronomical observations are scheduled for the optimum time, this model could enable remote site characterisation using a large archive of weather forecasts and could be used to optimise the performance of wide-field AO system.
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The Earths atmosphere affects ground-based astronomical observations. Scattering, absorption, and radiation processes deteriorate the signal-to-noise ratio of the data received. For scheduling astronomical observations it is, therefore, important to accurately estimate the wavelength-dependent effect of the Earths atmosphere on the observed flux. In order to increase the accuracy of the exposure time calculator of the European Southern Observatorys (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) at Cerro Paranal, an atmospheric model was developed as part of the Austrian ESO In-Kind contribution. It includes all relevant components, such as scattered moonlight, scattered starlight, zodiacal light, atmospheric thermal radiation and absorption, and non-thermal airglow emission. This paper focuses on atmospheric scattering processes that mostly affect the blue (< 0.55 mum) wavelength regime, and airglow emission lines and continuum that dominate the red (> 0.55 mum) wavelength regime. While the former is mainly investigated by means of radiative transfer models, the intensity and variability of the latter is studied with a sample of 1186 VLT FORS1 spectra. For a set of parameters such as the object altitude angle, Moon-object angular distance, ecliptic latitude, bimonthly period, and solar radio flux, our model predicts atmospheric radiation and transmission at a requested resolution. A comparison of our model with the FORS1 spectra and photometric data for the night-sky brightness from the literature, suggest a model accuracy of about 20%. This is a significant improvement with respect to existing predictive atmospheric models for astronomical exposure time calculators.
This article aims at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature) above the ESO ground-base site of Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model called Meso-Nh. In a precedent paper we have preliminarily treated the model performances obtained in reconstructing some key atmospherical parameters in the surface layer 0-30~m studying the bias and the RMSE on a statistical sample of 20 nights. Results were very encouraging and it appeared therefore mandatory to confirm such a good result on a much richer statistical sample. In this paper, the study was extended to a total sample of 129 nights between 2007 and 2011 distributed in different parts of the solar year. This large sample made our analysis more robust and definitive in terms of the model performances and permitted us to confirm the excellent performances of the model. Besides, we present an independent analysis of the model performances using the method of the contingency tables. Such a method permitted us to provide complementary key informations with respect to the bias and the RMSE particularly useful for an operational implementation of a forecast system.
At Paranal Observatory, the least predictable parameter affecting the short-term scheduling of astronomical observations is the optical turbulence, especially the seeing, coherence time and ground layer fraction. These are critical variables driving the performance of the instruments of the Very Large Telescope (VLT), especially those fed with adaptive optics systems. Currently, the night astronomer does not have a predictive tool to support him/her in decision-making at night. As most service-mode observations at the VLT last less than two hours, it is critical to be able to predict what will happen in this time frame, to avoid time losses due to sudden changes in the turbulence conditions, and also to enable more aggressive scheduling. We therefore investigate here the possibility to forecast the turbulence conditions over the next two hours. We call this turbulence nowcasting, analogously with weather nowcasting, a term already used in meteorology coming from the contraction of now and forecasting. We present here the results of a study based on historical data of the Paranal Astronomical Site Monitoring combined with ancillary data, in a machine learning framework. We show the strengths and shortcomings of such an approach, and present some perspectives in the context of the Extremely Large Telescope.
We have built an Atmospheric Transmission Monitoring Camera (aTmCam), which consists of four telescopes and detectors each with a narrow-band filter that monitors the brightness of suitable standard stars. Each narrowband filter is selected to monitor a different wavelength region of the atmospheric transmission, including regions dominated by the precipitable water vapor and aerosol optical depth. The colors of the stars are measured by this multi narrow-band imager system simultaneously. The measured colors, a model of the observed star, and the measured throughput of the system can be used to derive the atmospheric transmission of a site on sub-minute time scales. We deployed such a system to the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) and executed two one-month-long observing campaigns in Oct-Nov 2012 and Sept-Oct 2013. We have determined the time and angular scales of variations in the atmospheric transmission above CTIO during these observing runs. We also compared our results with those from a GPS Water Vapor Monitoring System and find general agreement. The information for the atmospheric transmission can be used to improve photometric precision of large imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
In this paper we investigate the correlation between the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal Observatory and the Chilean coast tides, which are mostly modulated by the 14-day syzygy solar-lunar tidal cycle. To this aim, we downloaded 15 years (2003-2017) of cloud coverage data from the AQUA satellite, in a matrix that includes also Armazones, the site of the European Extremely Large Telescope. By applying the Fast Fourier Transform to these data we detected a periodicity peak of about 14 days. We studied the tide cycle at Chanaral De Las Animas, on the ocean coast, for the year 2017, and we correlated it with the atmospheric perturbations at Paranal and the lunar phases. We found a significant correlation (96%) between the phenomena of short duration and intensity (1-3 days) and the tidal cycle at Chanaral. We then show that an atmospheric perturbation occurs at Paranal in concomitance with the low tide, which anticipates the full (or the new) moon by 3-4 days. This result allows to improve current weather forecasting models for astronomical observatories by introducing a lunar variable.
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