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At Paranal Observatory, the least predictable parameter affecting the short-term scheduling of astronomical observations is the optical turbulence, especially the seeing, coherence time and ground layer fraction. These are critical variables driving the performance of the instruments of the Very Large Telescope (VLT), especially those fed with adaptive optics systems. Currently, the night astronomer does not have a predictive tool to support him/her in decision-making at night. As most service-mode observations at the VLT last less than two hours, it is critical to be able to predict what will happen in this time frame, to avoid time losses due to sudden changes in the turbulence conditions, and also to enable more aggressive scheduling. We therefore investigate here the possibility to forecast the turbulence conditions over the next two hours. We call this turbulence nowcasting, analogously with weather nowcasting, a term already used in meteorology coming from the contraction of now and forecasting. We present here the results of a study based on historical data of the Paranal Astronomical Site Monitoring combined with ancillary data, in a machine learning framework. We show the strengths and shortcomings of such an approach, and present some perspectives in the context of the Extremely Large Telescope.
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We present the largest database so far of atmospheric optical-turbulence profiles (197035 individual CN2(h)) for an astronomical site, the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (La Palma, Spain). This C2 (h) database was obtained through generalized-SCIDAR observations at the 1 meter Jacobus Kapteyn telescope from Febrary 2004 to August 2009, obtaining useful data for 211 nights. The overestimation of the turbulence strength induced during the generalized SCIDAR data processing has been analyzed for the different observational configurations. All the individual C2 (h) have been recalibrated to compensate the introduced errors during data treatment following (Avila & Cuevas 2009). Comparing results from profiles before and after the recalibration, we analyze its impact on the calculation of relevant parameters for adaptive optics.
In the context of the MOSE project, in this contribution we present a detailed analysis of the Meso-NH mesoscale model performances and their dependency on the model and orography horizontal resolutions in proximity of the ground. The investigated sites are Cerro Paranal (site of the ESO Very Large Telescope - VLT) and Cerro Armazones (site of the ESO European Extremely Large Telescope - E-ELT), in Chile. At both sites, data from a rich statistical sample of different nights are available - from AWS (Automated Weather Stations) and masts - giving access to wind speed, wind direction and temperature at different levels near the ground (from 2 m to 30 m above the ground). In this study we discuss the use of a very high horizontal resolution (dX=0.1 km) numerical configuration that overcomes some specific limitations put in evidence with a standard configuration with dX=0.5 km. In both sites results are very promising. The study is co-funded by ESO and INAF.
This article aims at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature) above the ESO ground-base site of Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model called Meso-Nh. In a precedent paper we have preliminarily treated the model performances obtained in reconstructing some key atmospherical parameters in the surface layer 0-30~m studying the bias and the RMSE on a statistical sample of 20 nights. Results were very encouraging and it appeared therefore mandatory to confirm such a good result on a much richer statistical sample. In this paper, the study was extended to a total sample of 129 nights between 2007 and 2011 distributed in different parts of the solar year. This large sample made our analysis more robust and definitive in terms of the model performances and permitted us to confirm the excellent performances of the model. Besides, we present an independent analysis of the model performances using the method of the contingency tables. Such a method permitted us to provide complementary key informations with respect to the bias and the RMSE particularly useful for an operational implementation of a forecast system.
The Earths atmosphere affects ground-based astronomical observations. Scattering, absorption, and radiation processes deteriorate the signal-to-noise ratio of the data received. For scheduling astronomical observations it is, therefore, important to accurately estimate the wavelength-dependent effect of the Earths atmosphere on the observed flux. In order to increase the accuracy of the exposure time calculator of the European Southern Observatorys (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) at Cerro Paranal, an atmospheric model was developed as part of the Austrian ESO In-Kind contribution. It includes all relevant components, such as scattered moonlight, scattered starlight, zodiacal light, atmospheric thermal radiation and absorption, and non-thermal airglow emission. This paper focuses on atmospheric scattering processes that mostly affect the blue (< 0.55 mum) wavelength regime, and airglow emission lines and continuum that dominate the red (> 0.55 mum) wavelength regime. While the former is mainly investigated by means of radiative transfer models, the intensity and variability of the latter is studied with a sample of 1186 VLT FORS1 spectra. For a set of parameters such as the object altitude angle, Moon-object angular distance, ecliptic latitude, bimonthly period, and solar radio flux, our model predicts atmospheric radiation and transmission at a requested resolution. A comparison of our model with the FORS1 spectra and photometric data for the night-sky brightness from the literature, suggest a model accuracy of about 20%. This is a significant improvement with respect to existing predictive atmospheric models for astronomical exposure time calculators.
We describe the implementation of a robotic SLODAR instrument at the Cerro Paranal observatory. The instrument measures the vertical profile of the optical atmospheric turbulence strength, in 8 resolution elements, to a maximum altitude ranging between 100 m and 500 m. We present statistical results of measurements of the turbulence profile on a total of 875 nights between 2014 and 2018. The vertical profile of the ground layer of turbulence is very varied, but in the median case most of the turbulence strength in the ground layer is concentrated within the first 50 m altitude, with relatively weak turbulence at higher altitudes up to 500 m. We find good agreement between measurements of the seeing angle from the SLODAR and from the Paranal DIMM seeing monitor, and also for seeing values extracted from the Shack-Hartmann active optics sensor of VLT UT1, adjusting for the height of each instrument above ground level. The SLODAR data suggest that a median improvement in the seeing angle from 0.689 arcsec to 0.481 arcsec at wavelength 500 nm would be obtained by fully correcting the ground-layer turbulence between the height of the UTs (taken as 10 m) and altitude 500 m.
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