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In this article, we insist on the importance and the challenges of the prediction of solar eruptive phenomena including flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), and filament eruptions fully based on the ground-based telescopes. It is true that satellites data are indispensable for the space weather prediction, but they are vulnerable to the space weather effects. Therefore, the ground-based telescopes can be complementary to them from the viewpoint of space weather prediction. From this view point, one possible new flare prediction method that makes use of H-alpha, red wings, and blue wings images obtained by the SDDI/SMART, the ground-based telescope at Hida Observatory, is presented. And in order to show the possibility for the actual operation based on that method, the recent progress of CHAIN project, the international observation network, is mentioned in terms of their outcomes and capacity buildings.
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Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares, coronal mass ejections and associated solar energetic particles. In this review we discuss the importance and complementarity of ground-based and space-based observations for space weather studies. The main focus is drawn on ground-based observations in the visible range of the spectrum, in particular in the diagnostically manifold H$alpha$ spectral line, which enables us to detect and study solar flares, filaments, filament eruptions, and Moreton waves. Existing H$alpha$ networks such as the GONG and the Global High-Resolution H$alpha$ Network are discussed. As an example of solar observations from space weather research to operations, we present the system of real-time detection of H$alpha$ flares and filaments established at Kanzelhohe Observatory (KSO; Austria) in the frame of the ESA Space Situational Awareness programme. During the evaluation period 7/2013 - 11/2015, KSO provided 3020 hours of real-time H$alpha$ observations at the SWE portal. In total, 824 H$alpha$ flares were detected and classified by the real-time detection system, including 174 events of H$alpha$ importance class 1 and larger. For the total sample of events, 95% of the automatically determined flare peak times lie within $pm$5 min of the values given in the official optical flares reports (by NOAA and KSO), and 76% of the start times. The heliographic positions determined are better than $pm$5$^circ$. The probability of detection of flares of importance 1 or larger is 95%, with a false alarm rate of 16%. These numbers confirm the high potential of automatic flare detection and alerting from ground-based observatories.
Stellar flares, winds and coronal mass ejections form the space weather. They are signatures of the magnetic activity of cool stars and, since activity varies with age, mass and rotation, the space weather that extra-solar planets experience can be very different from the one encountered by the solar system planets. How do stellar activity and magnetism influence the space weather of exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars? How do the environments surrounding exoplanets differ from those around the planets in our own solar system? How can the detailed knowledge acquired by the solar system community be applied in exoplanetary systems? How does space weather affect habitability? These were questions that were addressed in the splinter session Cool stars and Space Weather, that took place on 9 Jun 2014, during the Cool Stars 18 meeting. In this paper, we present a summary of the contributions made to this session.
The Suns outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.
We present and discuss the pulsational characteristics of the Delta Scuti star 38 Eri from photometric data obtained at two widely spaced epochs, partly from the ground (1998) and partly from space (MOST, 2011). We found 18 frequencies resolving the discrepancy among the previously published frequencies. Some of the frequencies appeared with different relative amplitudes at two epochs, however, we carried out investigation for amplitude variability for only the MOST data. Amplitude variability was found for one of three frequencies that satisfy the necessary frequency criteria for linear-combination or resonant-mode coupling. Checking the criteria of beating and resonant-mode coupling we excluded them as possible reason for amplitude variability. The two recently developed methods of rotational-splitting and sequence-search were applied to find regular spacings based only on frequencies. Doublets or incomplete multiplets with l=1, 2 and 3 were found in the rotational splitting search. In the sequence search method we identified four sequences. The averaged spacing, probably a combination of the large separation and the rotational frequency, is 1.724+/-0.092 d-1. Using the spacing and the scaling relation $barrho = [0.0394, 0.0554]$ gcm$^{-3}$ was derived. The shift of the sequences proved to be the integer multiple of the rotational splitting spacing. Using the precise MOST frequencies and multi-colour photometry in a hybrid way, we identified four modes with l=1, two modes with l=2, two modes with l=3, and two modes as l=0 radial modes.
SWELTO -- Space WEather Laboratory in Turin Observatory is a conceptual framework where new ideas for the analysis of space-based and ground-based data are developed and tested. The input data are (but not limited to) remote sensing observations (EUV images of the solar disk, Visible Light coronagraphic images, radio dynamic spectra, etc...), in situ plasma measurements (interplanetary plasma density, velocity, magnetic field, etc...), as well as measurements acquired by local sensors and detectors (radio antenna, fluxgate magnetometer, full-sky cameras, located in OATo). The output products are automatic identification, tracking, and monitoring of solar stationary and dynamic features near the Sun (coronal holes, active regions, coronal mass ejections, etc...), and in the interplanetary medium (shocks, plasmoids, corotating interaction regions, etc...), as well as reconstructions of the interplanetary medium where solar disturbances may propagate from the Sun to the Earth and beyond. These are based both on empirical models and numerical MHD simulations. The aim of SWELTO is not only to test new data analysis methods for future application for Space Weather monitoring and prediction purposes, but also to procure, test and deploy new ground-based instrumentation to monitor the ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to solar activity. Moreover, people involved in SWELTO are active in outreach to disseminate the topics related with Space Weather to students and the general public.
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