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Register a new userOrigins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather
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The Suns outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.
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We take a broad look at the problem of identifying the magnetic solar causes of space weather. With the lackluster performance of extrapolations based upon magnetic field measurements in the photosphere, we identify a region in the near UV part of the spectrum as optimal for studying the development of magnetic free energy over active regions. Using data from SORCE, Hubble Space Telescope, and SKYLAB, along with 1D computations of the near-UV (NUV) spectrum and numerical experiments based on the MURaM radiation-MHD and HanleRT radiative transfer codes, we address multiple challenges. These challenges are best met through a combination of near UV lines of bright ion{Mg}{2}, and lines of ion{Fe}{2} and ion{Fe}{1} (mostly within the $4s-4p$ transition array) which form in the chromosphere up to $2times10^4$ K. Both Hanle and Zeeman effects can in principle be used to derive vector magnetic fields. However, for any given spectral line the $tau=1$ surfaces are generally geometrically corrugated owing to fine structure such as fibrils and spicules. By using multiple spectral lines spanning different optical depths, magnetic fields across nearly-horizontal surfaces can be inferred in regions of low plasma $beta$, from which free energies, magnetic topology and other quantities can be derived. Based upon the recently-reported successful suborbital space measurements of magnetic fields with the CLASP2 instrument, we argue that a modest space-borne telescope will be able to make significant advances in the attempts to predict solar eruptions. Difficulties associated with blended lines are shown to be minor in an Appendix.
The solar group at the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan is conducting synoptic solar observations with the Solar Flare Telescope. While it is a part of a long-term solar monitoring, contributing to the study of solar dynamo governing solar activity cycles, it is also an attempt at contributing to space weather research. The observations include imaging with filters for H$alpha$, Ca K, G-band, and continuum, and spectropolarimetry at the wavelength bands including the He I 1083.0 nm / Si I 1082.7 nm and the Fe I 1564.8 nm lines. Data for the brightness, Doppler signal, and magnetic field information of the photosphere and the chromosphere are obtained. In addition to monitoring dynamic phenomena like flares and filament eruptions, we can track the evolution of the magnetic fields that drive them on the basis of these data. Furthermore, the magnetic field in solar filaments, which develops into a part of the interplanetary magnetic cloud after their eruption and occasionally hits the Earth, can be inferred in its pre-eruption configuration. Such observations beyond mere classical monitoring of the Sun will hereafter become crucially important from the viewpoint of the prediction of space weather phenomena. The current synoptic observations with the Solar Flare Telescope is considered to be a pioneering one for future synoptic observations of the Sun with advanced instruments.
We study three CME/ICME events (2008 June 1-6, 2009 February 13-18, 2010 April 3-5) tracked from Sun to 1 AU in remote-sensing observations of STEREO Heliospheric Imagers and in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements. We focus on the ICME propagation in IP space that is governed by two forces, the propelling Lorentz force and the drag force. We address the question at which heliospheric distance range the drag becomes dominant and the CME gets adjusted to the solar wind flow. To this aim we analyze speed differences between ICMEs and the ambient solar wind flow as function of distance. The evolution of the ambient solar wind flow is derived from ENLIL 3D MHD model runs using different solar wind models, namely Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) and MHD-Around-A-Sphere (MAS). Comparing the measured CME kinematics with the solar wind models we find that the CME speed gets adjusted to the solar wind speed at very different heliospheric distances in the three events under study: from below 30 Rs, to beyond 1 AU, depending on the CME and ambient solar wind characteristics. ENLIL can be used to derive important information about the overall structure of the background solar wind, providing more reliable results during times of low solar activity than during times of high solar activity. The results from this study enable us to get a better insight into the forces acting on CMEs over the IP space distance range, which is an important prerequisite in order to predict their 1 AU transit times.
Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares, coronal mass ejections and associated solar energetic particles. In this review we discuss the importance and complementarity of ground-based and space-based observations for space weather studies. The main focus is drawn on ground-based observations in the visible range of the spectrum, in particular in the diagnostically manifold H$alpha$ spectral line, which enables us to detect and study solar flares, filaments, filament eruptions, and Moreton waves. Existing H$alpha$ networks such as the GONG and the Global High-Resolution H$alpha$ Network are discussed. As an example of solar observations from space weather research to operations, we present the system of real-time detection of H$alpha$ flares and filaments established at Kanzelhohe Observatory (KSO; Austria) in the frame of the ESA Space Situational Awareness programme. During the evaluation period 7/2013 - 11/2015, KSO provided 3020 hours of real-time H$alpha$ observations at the SWE portal. In total, 824 H$alpha$ flares were detected and classified by the real-time detection system, including 174 events of H$alpha$ importance class 1 and larger. For the total sample of events, 95% of the automatically determined flare peak times lie within $pm$5 min of the values given in the official optical flares reports (by NOAA and KSO), and 76% of the start times. The heliographic positions determined are better than $pm$5$^circ$. The probability of detection of flares of importance 1 or larger is 95%, with a false alarm rate of 16%. These numbers confirm the high potential of automatic flare detection and alerting from ground-based observatories.
Studies of solar radio bursts play an important role in understanding the dynamics and acceleration processes behind solar space weather events, and the influence of solar magnetic activity on solar system planets. Similar low-frequency bursts detected from active M-dwarfs are expected to probe their space weather environments and therefore the habitability of their planetary companions. Active M-dwarfs produce frequent, powerful flares which, along with radio emission, reveal conditions within their atmospheres. However, to date, only one candidate solar-like coherent radio burst has been identified from these stars, preventing robust observational constraints on their space weather environment. During simultaneous optical and radio monitoring of the nearby dM5.5e star Proxima Centauri, we detected a bright, long-duration optical flare, accompanied by a series of intense, coherent radio bursts. These detections include the first example of an interferometrically detected coherent stellar radio burst temporally coincident with a flare, strongly indicating a causal relationship between these transient events. The polarization and temporal structure of the trailing long-duration burst enable us to identify it as a type IV burst. This represents the most compelling detection of a solar-like radio burst from another star to date. Solar type IV bursts are strongly associated with space weather events such as coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particle events, suggesting that stellar type IV bursts may be used as a tracer of stellar coronal mass ejections. We discuss the implications of this event for the occurrence of coronal mass ejections from Proxima Cen and other active M-dwarfs.
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