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Register a new userMultivariate Constrained Robust M-Regression for Shaping Forward Curves in Electricity Markets
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Added by
Pieter Segaert
Publication date
2018
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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In this paper, a multivariate constrained robust M-regression (MCRM) method is developed to estimate shaping coefficients for electricity forward prices. An important benefit of the new method is that model arbitrage can be ruled out at an elementary level, as all shaping coefficients are treated simultaneously. Moreover, the new method is robust to outliers, such that the provided results are stable and not sensitive to isolated sparks or dips in the market. An efficient algorithm is presented to estimate all shaping coefficients at a low computational cost. To illustrate its good performance, the method is applied to German electricity prices.
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