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Register a new userDeep Sequence Learning with Auxiliary Information for Traffic Prediction
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Jingqing Zhang
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Predicting traffic conditions from online route queries is a challenging task as there are many complicated interactions over the roads and crowds involved. In this paper, we intend to improve traffic prediction by appropriate integration of three kinds of implicit but essential factors encoded in auxiliary information. We do this within an encoder-decoder sequence learning framework that integrates the following data: 1) offline geographical and social attributes. For example, the geographical structure of roads or public social events such as national celebrations; 2) road intersection information. In general, traffic congestion occurs at major junctions; 3) online crowd queries. For example, when many online queries issued for the same destination due to a public performance, the traffic around the destination will potentially become heavier at this location after a while. Qualitative and quantitative experiments on a real-world dataset from Baidu have demonstrated the effectiveness of our framework.
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In an intelligent transportation system, the key problem of traffic forecasting is how to extract the periodic temporal dependencies and complex spatial correlation. Current state-of-the-art methods for traffic flow forecasting are based on graph architectures and sequence learning models, but they do not fully exploit spatial-temporal dynamic information in the traffic system. Specifically, the temporal dependence of the short-range is diluted by recurrent neural networks, and the existing sequence model ignores local spatial information because the convolution operation uses global average pooling. Besides, there will be some traffic accidents during the transitions of objects causing congestion in the real world that trigger increased prediction deviation. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Spatial-Temporal Conv-sequence Learning (STCL), in which a focused temporal block uses unidirectional convolution to effectively capture short-term periodic temporal dependence, and a spatial-temporal fusion module is able to extract the dependencies of both interactions and decrease the feature dimensions. Moreover, the accidents features impact on local traffic congestion, and position encoding is employed to detect anomalies in complex traffic situations. We conduct a large number of experiments on real-world tasks and verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.
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We develop a novel approach to conformal prediction when the target task has limited data available for training. Conformal prediction identifies a small set of promising output candidates in place of a single prediction, with guarantees that the set contains the correct answer with high probability. When training data is limited, however, the predicted set can easily become unusably large. In this work, we obtain substantially tighter prediction sets while maintaining desirable marginal guarantees by casting conformal prediction as a meta-learning paradigm over exchangeable collections of auxiliary tasks. Our conformalization algorithm is simple, fast, and agnostic to the choice of underlying model, learning algorithm, or dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across a number of few-shot classification and regression tasks in natural language processing, computer vision, and computational chemistry for drug discovery.
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