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Register a new userComparing Clinical Judgment with MySurgeryRisk Algorithm for Preoperative Risk Assessment: A Pilot Study
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Azra Bihorac
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Background: Major postoperative complications are associated with increased short and long-term mortality, increased healthcare cost, and adverse long-term consequences. The large amount of data contained in the electronic health record (EHR) creates barriers for physicians to recognize patients most at risk. We hypothesize, if presented in an optimal format, information from data-driven predictive risk algorithms for postoperative complications can improve physician risk assessment. Methods: Prospective, non-randomized, interventional pilot study of twenty perioperative physicians at a quarterly academic medical center. Using 150 clinical cases we compared physicians risk assessment before and after interaction with MySurgeryRisk, a validated machine-learning algorithm predicting preoperative risk for six major postoperative complications using EHR data. Results: The area under the curve (AUC) of MySurgeryRisk algorithm ranged between 0.73 and 0.85 and was significantly higher than physicians risk assessments (AUC between 0.47 and 0.69) for all postoperative complications except cardiovascular complications. The AUC for repeated physicians risk assessment improved by 2% to 5% for all complications with the exception of thirty-day mortality. Physicians risk assessment for acute kidney injury and intensive care unit admission longer than 48 hours significantly improved after knowledge exchange, resulting in net reclassification improvement of 12.4% and 16%, respectively. Conclusions: The validated MySurgeryRisk algorithm predicted postoperative complications with equal or higher accuracy than pilot cohort of physicians using available clinical preoperative data. The interaction with algorithm significantly improved physicians risk assessment.
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