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Register a new userCoronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In situ Comparison
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Predicting the magnetic field within an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) well before its arrival at Earth is one of the most important issues in space weather research. In this article, we compare the intrinsic flux rope type, i.e. the CME orientation and handedness during eruption, with the in situ flux rope type for 20 CME events that have been uniquely linked from Sun to Earth through heliospheric imaging. Our study shows that the intrinsic flux rope type can be estimated for CMEs originating from different source regions using a combination of indirect proxies. We find that only 20% of the events studied match strictly between the intrinsic and in situ flux rope types. The percentage rises to 55% when intermediate cases (where the orientation at the Sun and/or in situ is close to 45{deg}) are considered as a match. We also determine the change in the flux rope tilt angle between the Sun and Earth. For the majority of the cases, the rotation is several tens of degrees, whilst 35% of the events change by more than 90{deg}. While occasionally the intrinsic flux rope type is a good proxy for the magnetic structure impacting Earth, our study highlights the importance of capturing the CME evolution for space weather forecasting purposes. Moreover, we emphasize that determination of the intrinsic flux rope type is a crucial input for CME forecasting models.
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Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Kay et al. 2015a) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the FIDO in situ magnetic field model (Kay et al. 2017a), allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35% of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCATs ability to determine FIDOs input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30%. The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CMEs position and orientation.
Solar eruptions are usually associated with a variety of phenomena occurring in the low corona before, during, and after onset of eruption. Though easily visible in coronagraph observations, so-called stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) do not obviously exhibit any of these low-coronal signatures. The presence or absence of distinct low coronal signatures can be linked to different theoretical models to establish the mechanisms by which the eruption is initiated and driven. In this study, 40 CMEs without low coronal signatures, occurring in 2012, are identified. Their observational and kinematic properties are analyzed and compared to those of regular CMEs. Solar eruptions without clear on-disk or low coronal signatures can lead to unexpected space weather impacts, since many early warning signs for significant space weather activity are not present in these events. A better understanding of their initiation mechanism(s) will considerably improve the ability to predict such space weather events.
The issue of the influence of coronal holes (CHs) on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in causing solar energetic particle (SEP) events is revisited. It is a continuation and extension of our previous work (Shen et al., 2006), in which no evident effect of CHs on CMEs in generating SEPs were found by statistically investigating 56 CME events. This result is consistent with the conclusion obtained by Kahler in 2004. In this paper, we extrapolate the coronal magnetic field, define CHs as the regions consisting of only open magnetic field lines and perform a similar analysis on this issue for totally 76 events by extending the study interval to the end of 2008. Three key parameters, CH proximity, CH area and CH relative position, are involved in the analysis. The new result confirms the previous conclusion that CHs did not show any evident effect on CMEs in causing SEP events.
We present results from 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the emergence of a twisted convection zone flux tube into a pre-existing coronal dipole field. As in previous simulations, following the partial emergence of the sub-surface flux into the corona, a combination of vortical motions and internal magnetic reconnection forms a coronal flux rope. Then, in the simulations presented here, external reconnection between the emerging field and the pre-existing dipole coronal field allows further expansion of the coronal flux rope into the corona. After sufficient expansion, internal reconnection occurs beneath the coronal flux rope axis, and the flux rope erupts up to the top boundary of the simulation domain ($sim$ 36 Mm above the surface). We find that the presence of a pre-existing field, orientated in a direction to facilitate reconnection with the emerging field, is vital to the fast rise of the coronal flux rope. The simulations shown in this paper are able to self-consistently create many of the surface and coronal signatures used by coronal mass ejection (CME) models. These signatures include: surface shearing and rotational motions; quadrupolar geometry above the surface; central sheared arcades reconnecting with oppositely orientated overlying dipole fields; the formation of coronal flux ropes underlying potential coronal field; and internal reconnection which resembles the classical flare reconnection scenario. This suggests that proposed mechanisms for the initiation of a CME, such as magnetic breakout, are operating during the emergence of new active regions.
It is widely believed that loops observed in the solar atmosphere trace out magnetic field lines. However, the degree to which magnetic field extrapolations yield field lines that actually do follow loops has yet to be studied systematically. In this paper we apply three different extrapolation techniques - a simple potential model, a NLFF model based on photospheric vector data, and a NLFF model based on forward fitting magnetic sources with vertical currents - to 15 active regions that span a wide range of magnetic conditions. We use a distance metric to assess how well each of these models is able to match field lines to the 12,202 loops traced in coronal images. These distances are typically 1-2. We also compute the misalignment angle between each traced loop and the local magnetic field vector, and find values of 5-12$^circ$. We find that the NLFF models generally outperform the potential extrapolation on these metrics, although the differences between the different extrapolations are relatively small. The methodology that we employ for this study suggests a number of ways that both the extrapolations and loop identification can be improved.
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