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As a means of improving analysis of biological shapes, we propose an algorithm for sampling a Riemannian manifold by sequentially selecting points with maximum uncertainty under a Gaussian process model. This greedy strategy is known to be near-optimal in the experimental design literature, and appears to outperform the use of user-placed landmarks in representing the geometry of biological objects in our application. In the noiseless regime, we establish an upper bound for the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) in terms of the number of samples and geometric quantities of the manifold, demonstrating that the MSPE for our proposed sequential design decays at a rate comparable to the oracle rate achievable by any sequential or non-sequential optimal design; to our knowledge this is the first result of this type for sequential experimental design. The key is to link the greedy algorithm to reduced basis methods in the context of model reduction for partial differential equations. We expect this approach will find additional applications in other fields of research.
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We demonstrate applications of the Gaussian process-based landmarking algorithm proposed in [T. Gao, S.Z. Kovalsky, and I. Daubechies, SIAM Journal on Mathematics of Data Science (2019)] to geometric morphometrics, a branch of evolutionary biology centered at the analysis and comparisons of anatomical shapes, and compares the automatically sampled landmarks with the ground truth landmarks manually placed by evolutionary anthropologists; the results suggest that Gaussian process landmarks perform equally well or better, in terms of both spatial coverage and downstream statistical analysis. We provide a detailed exposition of numerical procedures and feature filtering algorithms for computing high-quality and semantically meaningful diffeomorphisms between disk-type anatomical surfaces.
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Infrastructure recovery time estimation is critical to disaster management and planning. Inspired by recent resilience planning initiatives, we consider a situation where experts are asked to estimate the time for different infrastructure systems to recover to certain functionality levels after a scenario hazard event. We propose a methodological framework to use expert-elicited data to estimate the expected recovery time curve of a particular infrastructure system. This framework uses the Gaussian process regression (GPR) to capture the experts estimation-uncertainty and satisfy known physical constraints of recovery processes. The framework is designed to find a balance between the data collection cost of expert elicitation and the prediction accuracy of GPR. We evaluate the framework on realistically simulated expert-elicited data concerning the two case study events, the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.
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