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New text as data techniques offer a great promise: the ability to inductively discover measures that are useful for testing social science theories of interest from large collections of text. We introduce a conceptual framework for making causal inferences with discovered measures as a treatment or outcome. Our framework enables researchers to discover high-dimensional textual interventions and estimate the ways that observed treatments affect text-based outcomes. We argue that nearly all text-based causal inferences depend upon a latent representation of the text and we provide a framework to learn the latent representation. But estimating this latent representation, we show, creates new risks: we may introduce an identification problem or overfit. To address these risks we describe a split-sample framework and apply it to estimate causal effects from an experiment on immigration attitudes and a study on bureaucratic response. Our work provides a rigorous foundation for text-based causal inferences.
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This is a story about making quantum computers speak, and doing so in a quantum-native, compositional and meaning-aware manner. Recently we did question-answering with an actual quantum computer. We explain what we did, stress that this was all done in terms of pictures, and provide many pointers to the related literature. In fact, besides natural language, many other things can be implemented in a quantum-native, compositional and meaning-aware manner, and we provide the reader with some indications of that broader pictorial landscape, including our account on the notion of compositionality. We also provide some guidance for the actual execution, so that the reader can give it a go as well.
Unobserved confounding is a major hurdle for causal inference from observational data. Confounders---the variables that affect both the causes and the outcome---induce spurious non-causal correlations between the two. Wang & Blei (2018) lower this hurdle with the blessings of multiple causes, where the correlation structure of multiple causes provides indirect evidence for unobserved confounding. They leverage these blessings with an algorithm, called the deconfounder, that uses probabilistic factor models to correct for the confounders. In this paper, we take a causal graphical view of the deconfounder. In a graph that encodes shared confounding, we show how the multiplicity of causes can help identify intervention distributions. We then justify the deconfounder, showing that it makes valid inferences of the intervention. Finally, we expand the class of graphs, and its theory, to those that include other confounders and selection variables. Our results expand the theory in Wang & Blei (2018), justify the deconfounder for causal graphs, and extend the settings where it can be used.
Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of informal visual insights. We formally evaluate the quality of causal inferences from visualizations by adopting causal support -- a Bayesian cognition model that learns the probability of alternative causal explanations given some data -- as a normative benchmark for causal inferences. We contribute two experiments assessing how well crowdworkers can detect (1) a treatment effect and (2) a confounding relationship. We find that chart users causal inferences tend to be insensitive to sample size such that they deviate from our normative benchmark. While interactively cross-filtering data in visualizations can improve sensitivity, on average users do not perform reliably better with common visualizations than they do with textual contingency tables. These experiments demonstrate the utility of causal support as an evaluation framework for inferences in VA and point to opportunities to make analysts mental models more explicit in VA software.
Representation learning constructs low-dimensional representations to summarize essential features of high-dimensional data. This learning problem is often approached by describing various desiderata associated with learned representations; e.g., that they be non-spurious, efficient, or disentangled. It can be challenging, however, to turn these intuitive desiderata into formal criteria that can be measured and enhanced based on observed data. In this paper, we take a causal perspective on representation learning, formalizing non-spuriousness and efficiency (in supervised representation learning) and disentanglement (in unsupervised representation learning) using counterfactual quantities and observable consequences of causal assertions. This yields computable metrics that can be used to assess the degree to which representations satisfy the desiderata of interest and learn non-spurious and disentangled representations from single observational datasets.
Several candidates for accreting magnetars have been proposed recently by different authors. Existence of such systems contradicts the standard magnetic field decay scenario where a large magnetic field of a neutron star reaches $lesssim$ few$times 10^{13}$G at ages $gtrsim 1$ Myr. Among other sources, the high mass X-ray binary 4U0114+65 seems to have a strong magnetic field around $10^{14}$ G. We develop a new Bayesian estimate for the kinematic age and demonstrate that 4U0114+65 has kinematic age 2.4-5 Myr ($95%$ credential interval) since the formation of the neutron star. We discuss which conditions are necessary to explain the potential existence of magnetars in accreting high-mass binaries with ages about few Myrs and larger. Three necessary ingredients are: the Hall attractor to prevent rapid decay of dipolar field, relatively rapid cooling of the crust in order to avoid Ohmic decay due to phonons, and finally, low values of the parameter $Q$ to obtain long Ohmic time scale due to impurities. If age and magnetic field estimates for proposed accreting magnetars are correct, then these systems set the strongest limit on the crust impurity for a selected sample of neutron stars and provide evidence in favour of the Hall attractor.
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