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Unobserved confounding is a major hurdle for causal inference from observational data. Confounders---the variables that affect both the causes and the outcome---induce spurious non-causal correlations between the two. Wang & Blei (2018) lower this hurdle with the blessings of multiple causes, where the correlation structure of multiple causes provides indirect evidence for unobserved confounding. They leverage these blessings with an algorithm, called the deconfounder, that uses probabilistic factor models to correct for the confounders. In this paper, we take a causal graphical view of the deconfounder. In a graph that encodes shared confounding, we show how the multiplicity of causes can help identify intervention distributions. We then justify the deconfounder, showing that it makes valid inferences of the intervention. Finally, we expand the class of graphs, and its theory, to those that include other confounders and selection variables. Our results expand the theory in Wang & Blei (2018), justify the deconfounder for causal graphs, and extend the settings where it can be used.
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Representation learning constructs low-dimensional representations to summarize essential features of high-dimensional data. This learning problem is often approached by describing various desiderata associated with learned representations; e.g., that they be non-spurious, efficient, or disentangled. It can be challenging, however, to turn these intuitive desiderata into formal criteria that can be measured and enhanced based on observed data. In this paper, we take a causal perspective on representation learning, formalizing non-spuriousness and efficiency (in supervised representation learning) and disentanglement (in unsupervised representation learning) using counterfactual quantities and observable consequences of causal assertions. This yields computable metrics that can be used to assess the degree to which representations satisfy the desiderata of interest and learn non-spurious and disentangled representations from single observational datasets.
Many Machine Learning algorithms are formulated as regularized optimization problems, but their performance hinges on a regularization parameter that needs to be calibrated to each application at hand. In this paper, we propose a general calibration scheme for regularized optimization problems and apply it to the graphical lasso, which is a method for Gaussian graphical modeling. The scheme is equipped with theoretical guarantees and motivates a thresholding pipeline that can improve graph recovery. Moreover, requiring at most one line search over the regularization path, the calibration scheme is computationally more efficient than competing schemes that are based on resampling. Finally, we show in simulations that our approach can improve on the graph recovery of other approaches considerably.
The last decade witnessed the development of algorithms that completely solve the identifiability problem for causal effects in hidden variable causal models associated with directed acyclic graphs. However, much of this machinery remains underutilized in practice owing to the complexity of estimating identifying functionals yielded by these algorithms. In this paper, we provide simple graphical criteria and semiparametric estimators that bridge the gap between identification and estimation for causal effects involving a single treatment and a single outcome. First, we provide influence function based doubly robust estimators that cover a significant subset of hidden variable causal models where the effect is identifiable. We further characterize an important subset of this class for which we demonstrate how to derive the estimator with the lowest asymptotic variance, i.e., one that achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Finally, we provide semiparametric estimators for any single treatment causal effect parameter identified via the aforementioned algorithms. The resulting estimators resemble influence function based estimators that are sequentially reweighted, and exhibit a partial double robustness property, provided the parts of the likelihood corresponding to a set of weight models are correctly specified. Our methods are easy to implement and we demonstrate their utility through simulations.
Multi-view stacking is a framework for combining information from different views (i.e. different feature sets) describing the same set of objects. In this framework, a base-learner algorithm is trained on each view separately, and their predictions are then combined by a meta-learner algorithm. In a previous study, stacked penalized logistic regression, a special case of multi-view stacking, has been shown to be useful in identifying which views are most important for prediction. In this article we expand this research by considering seven different algorithms to use as the meta-learner, and evaluating their view selection and classification performance in simulations and two applications on real gene-expression data sets. Our results suggest that if both view selection and classification accuracy are important to the research at hand, then the nonnegative lasso, nonnegative adaptive lasso and nonnegative elastic net are suitable meta-learners. Exactly which among these three is to be preferred depends on the research context. The remaining four meta-learners, namely nonnegative ridge regression, nonnegative forward selection, stability selection and the interpolating predictor, show little advantages in order to be preferred over the other three.
Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference from observational studies. Recently, several authors suggest that this problem may be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent given a common latent confounder. It has been shown that under a linear Gaussian model for the treatments, the causal effect is not identifiable without parametric assumptions on the outcome model. In this paper, we show that the causal effect is indeed identifiable if we assume a general binary choice model for the outcome with a non-probit link. Our identification approach is based on the incongruence between Gaussianity of the treatments and latent confounder, and non-Gaussianity of a latent outcome variable. We further develop a two-step likelihood-based estimation procedure.
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