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Register a new userStochastic Kriging for Inadequate Simulation Models
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Added by
Xiaowei Zhang
Publication date
2018
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Stochastic kriging is a popular metamodeling technique for representing the unknown response surface of a simulation model. However, the simulation model may be inadequate in the sense that there may be a non-negligible discrepancy between it and the real system of interest. Failing to account for the model discrepancy may conceivably result in erroneous prediction of the real systems performance and mislead the decision-making process. This paper proposes a metamodel that extends stochastic kriging to incorporate the model discrepancy. Both the simulation outputs and the real data are used to characterize the model discrepancy. The proposed metamodel can provably enhance the prediction of the real systems performance. We derive general results for experiment design and analysis, and demonstrate the advantage of the proposed metamodel relative to competing methods. Finally, we study the effect of Common Random Numbers (CRN). The use of CRN is well known to be detrimental to the prediction accuracy of stochastic kriging in general. By contrast, we show that the effect of CRN in the new context is substantially more complex. The use of CRN can be either detrimental or beneficial depending on the interplay between the magnitude of the observation errors and other parameters involved.
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Stochastic kriging is a popular technique for simulation metamodeling due to its exibility and analytical tractability. Its computational bottleneck is the inversion of a covariance matrix, which takes $O(n^3)$ time in general and becomes prohibitive for large n, where n is the number of design points. Moreover, the covariance matrix is often ill-conditioned for large n, and thus the inversion is prone to numerical instability, resulting in erroneous parameter estimation and prediction. These two numerical issues preclude the use of stochastic kriging at a large scale. This paper presents a novel approach to address them. We construct a class of covariance functions, called Markovian covariance functions (MCFs), which have two properties: (i) the associated covariance matrices can be inverted analytically, and (ii) the inverse matrices are sparse. With the use of MCFs, the inversion-related computational time is reduced to $O(n^2)$ in general, and can be further reduced by orders of magnitude with additional assumptions on the simulation errors and design points. The analytical invertibility also enhance the numerical stability dramatically. The key in our approach is that we identify a general functional form of covariance functions that can induce sparsity in the corresponding inverse matrices. We also establish a connection between MCFs and linear ordinary differential equations. Such a connection provides a flexible, principled approach to constructing a wide class of MCFs. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that stochastic kriging with MCFs can handle large-scale problems in an both computationally efficient and numerically stable manner.
When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance estimates. Ignoring either source of uncertainty underestimates the overall statistical error. Simulation uncertainty can be reduced by additional computation (e.g., more replications). Input uncertainty can be reduced by collecting more real-world data, when feasible. This paper proposes an approach to quantify overall statistical uncertainty when the simulation is driven by independent parametric input distributions; specifically, we produce a confidence interval that accounts for both simulation and input uncertainty by using a metamodel-assisted bootstrapping approach. The input uncertainty is measured via bootstrapping, an equation-based stochastic kriging metamodel propagates the input uncertainty to the output mean, and both simulation and metamodel uncertainty are derived using properties of the metamodel. A variance decomposition is proposed to estimate the relative contribution of input to overall uncertainty; this information indicates whether the overall uncertainty can be significantly reduced through additional simulation alone. Asymptotic analysis provides theoretical support for our approach, while an empirical study demonstrates that it has good finite-sample performance.
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This paper introduces and analyzes a stochastic search method for parameter estimation in linear regression models in the spirit of Beran and Millar (1987). The idea is to generate a random finite subset of a parameter space which will automatically contain points which are very close to an unknown true parameter. The motivation for this procedure comes from recent work of Duembgen, Samworth and Schuhmacher (2011) on regression models with log-concave error distributions.
Scientists and engineers commonly use simulation models to study real systems for which actual experimentation is costly, difficult, or impossible. Many simulations are stochastic in the sense that repeated runs with the same input configuration will result in different outputs. For expensive or time-consuming simulations, stochastic kriging citep{ankenman} is commonly used to generate predictions for simulation model outputs subject to uncertainty due to both function approximation and stochastic variation. Here, we develop and justify a few guidelines for experimental design, which ensure accuracy of stochastic kriging emulators. We decompose error in stochastic kriging predictions into nominal, numeric, parameter estimation and parameter estimation numeric components and provide means to control each in terms of properties of the underlying experimental design. The design properties implied for each source of error are weakly conflicting and broad principles are proposed. In brief, space-filling properties small fill distance and large separation distance should balance with replication at distinct input configurations, with number of replications depending on the relative magnitudes of stochastic and process variability. Non-stationarity implies higher input density in more active regions, while regression functions imply a balance with traditional design properties. A few examples are presented to illustrate the results.
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