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Register a new userImprovements to Inference Compilation for Probabilistic Programming in Large-Scale Scientific Simulators
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We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic components are composed to create complex generative models. These models lead to intractable likelihoods and are typically non-differentiable, which poses challenges for traditional approaches to inference. We extend previous work in inference compilation, which combines universal probabilistic programming and deep learning methods, to large-scale scientific simulators, and introduce a C++ based probabilistic programming library called CPProb. We successfully use CPProb to interface with SHERPA, a large code-base used in particle physics. Here we describe the technical innovations realized and planned for this library.
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We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do compilation of inference because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neural network is fed observational data and executed, it performs approximate inference in the original model specified by the probabilistic program. Our training objective and learning procedure are designed to allow the trained neural network to be used as a proposal distribution in a sequential importance sampling inference engine. We illustrate our method on mixture models and Captcha solving and show significant speedups in the efficiency of inference.
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are receiving widespread attention for performing Bayesian inference in complex generative models. However, applications to science remain limited because of the impracticability of rewriting complex scientific simulators in a PPL, the computational cost of inference, and the lack of scalable implementations. To address these, we present a novel PPL framework that couples directly to existing scientific simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol and provides Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and deep-learning-based inference compilation (IC) engines for tractable inference. To guide IC inference, we perform distributed training of a dynamic 3DCNN--LSTM architecture with a PyTorch-MPI-based framework on 1,024 32-core CPU nodes of the Cori supercomputer with a global minibatch size of 128k: achieving a performance of 450 Tflop/s through enhancements to PyTorch. We demonstrate a Large Hadron Collider (LHC) use-case with the C++ Sherpa simulator and achieve the largest-scale posterior inference in a Turing-complete PPL.
Reasoning on large and complex real-world models is a computationally difficult task, yet one that is required for effective use of many AI applications. A plethora of inference algorithms have been developed that work well on specific models or only on parts of general models. Consequently, a system that can intelligently apply these inference algorithms to different parts of a model for fast reasoning is highly desirable. We introduce a new framework called structured factored inference (SFI) that provides the foundation for such a system. Using models encoded in a probabilistic programming language, SFI provides a sound means to decompose a model into sub-models, apply an inference algorithm to each sub-model, and combine the resulting information to answer a query. Our results show that SFI is nearly as accurate as exact inference yet retains the benefits of approximate inference methods.
Affective Computing is a rapidly growing field spurred by advancements in artificial intelligence, but often, held back by the inability to translate psychological theories of emotion into tractable computational models. To address this, we propose a probabilistic programming approach to affective computing, which models psychological-grounded theories as generative models of emotion, and implements them as stochastic, executable computer programs. We first review probabilistic approaches that integrate reasoning about emotions with reasoning about other latent mental states (e.g., beliefs, desires) in context. Recently-developed probabilistic programming languages offer several key desidarata over previous approaches, such as: (i) flexibility in representing emotions and emotional processes; (ii) modularity and compositionality; (iii) integration with deep learning libraries that facilitate efficient inference and learning from large, naturalistic data; and (iv) ease of adoption. Furthermore, using a probabilistic programming framework allows a standardized platform for theory-building and experimentation: Competing theories (e.g., of appraisal or other emotional processes) can be easily compared via modular substitution of code followed by model comparison. To jumpstart adoption, we illustrate our points with executable code that researchers can easily modify for their own models. We end with a discussion of applications and future directions of the probabilistic programming approach.
Recent findings suggest that humans deploy cognitive mechanism of physics simulation engines to simulate the physics of objects. We propose a framework for bots to deploy probabilistic programming tools for interacting with intuitive physics environments. The framework employs a physics simulation in a probabilistic way to infer about moves performed by an agent in a setting governed by Newtonian laws of motion. However, methods of probabilistic programs can be slow in such setting due to their need to generate many samples. We complement the model with a model-free approach to aid the sampling procedures in becoming more efficient through learning from experience during game playing. We present an approach where combining model-free approaches (a convolutional neural network in our model) and model-based approaches (probabilistic physics simulation) is able to achieve what neither could alone. This way the model outperforms an all model-free or all model-based approach. We discuss a case study showing empirical results of the performance of the model on the game of Flappy Bird.
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