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Register a new userTraffic Prediction Based on Random Connectivity in Deep Learning with Long Short-Term Memory
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Yuxiu Hua
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Traffic prediction plays an important role in evaluating the performance of telecommunication networks and attracts intense research interests. A significant number of algorithms and models have been put forward to analyse traffic data and make prediction. In the recent big data era, deep learning has been exploited to mine the profound information hidden in the data. In particular, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one kind of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) schemes, has attracted a lot of attentions due to its capability of processing the long-range dependency embedded in the sequential traffic data. However, LSTM has considerable computational cost, which can not be tolerated in tasks with stringent latency requirement. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model based on LSTM, called Random Connectivity LSTM (RCLSTM). Compared to the conventional LSTM, RCLSTM makes a notable breakthrough in the formation of neural network, which is that the neurons are connected in a stochastic manner rather than full connected. So, the RCLSTM, with certain intrinsic sparsity, have many neural connections absent (distinguished from the full connectivity) and which leads to the reduction of the parameters to be trained and the computational cost. We apply the RCLSTM to predict traffic and validate that the RCLSTM with even 35% neural connectivity still shows a satisfactory performance. When we gradually add training samples, the performance of RCLSTM becomes increasingly closer to the baseline LSTM. Moreover, for the input traffic sequences of enough length, the RCLSTM exhibits even superior prediction accuracy than the baseline LSTM.
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Time series prediction can be generalized as a process that extracts useful information from historical records and then determines future values. Learning long-range dependencies that are embedded in time series is often an obstacle for most algorithms, whereas Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) solutions, as a specific kind of scheme in deep learning, promise to effectively overcome the problem. In this article, we first give a brief introduction to the structure and forward propagation mechanism of the LSTM model. Then, aiming at reducing the considerable computing cost of LSTM, we put forward the Random Connectivity LSTM (RCLSTM) model and test it by predicting traffic and user mobility in telecommunication networks. Compared to LSTM, RCLSTM is formed via stochastic connectivity between neurons, which achieves a significant breakthrough in the architecture formation of neural networks. In this way, the RCLSTM model exhibits a certain level of sparsity, which leads to an appealing decrease in the computational complexity and makes the RCLSTM model become more applicable in latency-stringent application scenarios. In the field of telecommunication networks, the prediction of traffic series and mobility traces could directly benefit from this improvement as we further demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of RCLSTM is comparable to that of the conventional LSTM no matter how we change the number of training samples or the length of input sequences.
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