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Register a new userThe observing campaign on the deep-space debris WT1190F as a test case for short-warning NEO impacts
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On 2015 November 13, the small artificial object designated WT1190F entered the Earth atmosphere above the Indian Ocean offshore Sri Lanka after being discovered as a possible new asteroid only a few weeks earlier. At ESAs SSA-NEO Coordination Centre we took advantage of this opportunity to organize a ground-based observational campaign, using WT1190F as a test case for a possible similar future event involving a natural asteroidal body.
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The overall aim of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space for research or services, through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding our planet Earth. The SSA system will comprise three main segments: Space Weather (SWE) monitoring and forecast Near-Earth Objects (NEO) survey and follow-up Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) of man-made space objects. There already exist different algorithms to predict orbits for NEOs. The objective of this activity is to come up with a different trajectory prediction algorithm, which allows an independent validation of the current algorithms within the SSA-NEO segment (e.g. NEODyS, JPL Sentry System). The key objective of this activity was to design, develop, test, verify, and validate trajectory prediction algorithm of NEOs in order to be able to compute analytically and numerically the minimum orbital intersection distances (MOIDs). The NEOPROP software consists of two separate modules/tools: (i) the Analytical Module makes use of analytical algorithms in order to rapidly assess the impact risk of a NEO. (ii) The Numerical Module makes use of numerical algorithms in order to refine and to better assess the impact probabilities.
We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only two asteroids to date discovered prior to impact.
We present 45 ground-based photometric observations of the K2-22 system collected between December 2016 and May 2017, which we use to investigate the evolution of the transit of the disintegrating planet K2-22b. Last observed in early 2015, in these new observations we recover the transit at multiple epochs and measure a typical depth of <1.5%. We find that the distribution of our measured transit depths is comparable to the range of depths measured in observations from 2014 and 2015. These new observations also support ongoing variability in the K2-22b transit shape and time, although the overall shallowness of the transit makes a detailed analysis of these transit parameters difficult. We find no strong evidence of wavelength-dependent transit depths for epochs where we have simultaneous coverage at multiple wavelengths, although our stacked Las Cumbres Observatory data collected over days-to-months timescales are suggestive of a deeper transit at blue wavelengths. We encourage continued high-precision photometric and spectroscopic monitoring of this system in order to further constrain the evolution timescale and to aid comparative studies with the other few known disintegrating planets.
The Debris Disk Explorer (DDX) is a proposed balloon-borne investigation of debris disks around nearby stars. Debris disks are analogs of the Asteroid Belt (mainly rocky) and Kuiper Belt (mainly icy) in our Solar System. DDX will measure the size, shape, brightness, and color of tens of disks. These measurements will enable us to place the Solar System in context. By imaging debris disks around nearby stars, DDX will reveal the presence of perturbing planets via their influence on disk structure, and explore the physics and history of debris disks by characterizing the size and composition of disk dust. The DDX instrument is a 0.75-m diameter off-axis telescope and a coronagraph carried by a stratospheric balloon. DDX will take high-resolution, multi-wavelength images of the debris disks around tens of nearby stars. Two flights are planned; an overnight test flight within the United States followed by a month-long science flight launched from New Zealand. The long flight will fully explore the set of known debris disks accessible only to DDX. It will achieve a raw contrast of 10^-7, with a processed contrast of 10^-8. A technology benefit of DDX is that operation in the near-space environment will raise the Technology Readiness Level of internal coronagraphs, deformable mirrors, and wavefront sensing and control, all potentially needed for a future space-based telescope for high-contrast exoplanet imaging.
Amateur astronomers can make useful contributions to the study of comets. They add temporal coverage and multi-scale observations which can aid the study of fast-changing, and large-scale comet features. We document and review the amateur observing campaign set up to complement the Rosetta space mission, including the data submitted to date, and consider the campaigns effectiveness in the light of experience from previous comet amateur campaigns. We report the results of surveys of campaign participants, the amateur astronomy community, and schools who participated in a comet 46P observing campaign. We draw lessons for future campaigns which include the need for: clarity of objectives; recognising the wider impact campaigns can have on increasing science capital; clear, consistent, timely and tailored guidance; easy upload procedures with in-built quality control; and, regular communication, feedback and recognition.
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