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Reconstruction of multiplex networks with correlated layers

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 Added by Valerio Gemmetto
 Publication date 2017
and research's language is English




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The characterization of various properties of real-world systems requires the knowledge of the underlying network of connections among the systems components. Unfortunately, in many situations the complete topology of this network is empirically inaccessible, and one has to resort to probabilistic techniques to infer it from limited information. While network reconstruction methods have reached some degree of maturity in the case of single-layer networks (where nodes can be connected only by one type of links), the problem is practically unexplored in the case of multiplex networks, where several interdependent layers, each with a different type of links, coexist. Even the most advanced network reconstruction techniques, if applied to each layer separately, fail in replicating the observed inter-layer dependencies making up the whole coupled multiplex. Here we develop a methodology to reconstruct a class of correlated multiplexes which includes the World Trade Multiplex as a specific example we study in detail. Our method starts from any reconstruction model that successfully reproduces some desired marginal properties, including node strengths and/or node degrees, of each layer separately. It then introduces the minimal dependency structure required to replicate an additional set of higher-order properties that quantify the portion of each nodes degree and each nodes strength that is shared and/or reciprocated across pairs of layers. These properties are found to provide empirically robust measures of inter-layer coupling. Our method allows joint multi-layer connection probabilities to be reliably reconstructed from marginal ones, effectively bridging the gap between single-layer properties and truly multiplex information.

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Many natural, engineered, and social systems can be represented using the framework of a layered network, where each layer captures a different type of interaction between the same set of nodes. The study of such multiplex networks is a vibrant area of research. Yet, understanding how to quantify the correlations present between pairs of layers, and more so present in their co-evolution, is lacking. Such methods would enable us to address fundamental questions involving issues such as function, redundancy and potential disruptions. Here we show first how the edge-set of a multiplex network can be used to construct an estimator of a joint probability distribution describing edge existence over all layers. We then adapt an information-theoretic measure of general correlation called the conditional mutual information, which uses the estimated joint probability distribution, to quantify the pairwise correlations present between layers. The pairwise comparisons can also be temporal, allowing us to identify if knowledge of a certain layer can provide additional information about the evolution of another layer. We analyze datasets from three distinct domains---economic, political, and airline networks---to demonstrate how pairwise correlation in structure and dynamical evolution between layers can be identified and show that anomalies can serve as potential indicators of major events such as shocks.
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Network reconstruction is fundamental to understanding the dynamical behaviors of the networked systems. Many systems, modeled by multiplex networks with various types of interactions, display an entirely different dynamical behavior compared to the corresponding aggregated network. In many cases, unfortunately, only the aggregated topology and partial observations of the network layers are available, raising an urgent demand for reconstructing multiplex networks. We fill this gap by developing a mathematical and computational tool based on the Expectation-Maximization framework to reconstruct multiplex layer structures. The reconstruction accuracy depends on the various factors, such as partial observation and network characteristics, limiting our ability to predict and allocate observations. Surprisingly, by using a mean-field approximation, we discovered that a discrimination indicator that integrates all these factors universally determines the accuracy of reconstruction. This discovery enables us to design the optimal strategies to allocate the fixed budget for deriving the partial observations, promoting the optimal reconstruction of multiplex networks. To further evaluate the performance of our method, we predict beside structure also dynamical behaviors on the multiplex networks, including percolation, random walk, and spreading processes. Finally, applying our method on empirical multiplex networks drawn from biological, transportation, and social domains, corroborate the theoretical analysis.
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