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We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables. By using a series of code transformations, the evidence of any probabilistic program, and therefore of any graphical model, can be optimized with respect to an arbitrary subset of its sampled variables. To carry out this optimization, we develop the first Bayesian optimization package to directly exploit the source code of its target, leading to innovations in problem-independent hyperpriors, unbounded optimization, and implicit constraint satisfaction; delivering significant performance improvements over prominent existing packages. We present applications of our method to a number of tasks including engineering design and parameter optimization.
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We formalize the notion of nesting probabilistic programming queries and investigate the resulting statistical implications. We demonstrate that while query nesting allows the definition of models which could not otherwise be expressed, such as those involving agents reasoning about other agents, existing systems take approaches which lead to inconsistent estimates. We show how to correct this by delineating possible ways one might want to nest queries and asserting the respective conditions required for convergence. We further introduce a new online nested Monte Carlo estimator that makes it substantially easier to ensure these conditions are met, thereby providing a simple framework for designing statistically correct inference engines. We prove the correctness of this online estimator and show that, when using the recommended setup, its asymptotic variance is always better than that of the equivalent fixed estimator, while its bias is always within a factor of two.
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time in the number of observations. This paper describes a sublinear-time algorithm for making Metropolis-Hastings (MH) updates to latent variables in probabilistic programs. The approach generalizes recently introduced approximate MH techniques: instead of subsampling data items assumed to be independent, it subsamples edges in a dynamically constructed graphical model. It thus applies to a broader class of problems and interoperates with other general-purpose inference techniques. Empirical results, including confirmation of sublinear per-transition scaling, are presented for Bayesian logistic regression, nonlinear classification via joint Dirichlet process mixtures, and parameter estimation for stochastic volatility models (with state estimation via particle MCMC). All three applications use the same implementation, and each requires under 20 lines of probabilistic code.
In many real-world scenarios, decision makers seek to efficiently optimize multiple competing objectives in a sample-efficient fashion. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (BO) is a common approach, but many of the best-performing acquisition functions do not have known analytic gradients and suffer from high computational overhead. We leverage recent advances in programming models and hardware acceleration for multi-objective BO using Expected Hypervolume Improvement (EHVI)---an algorithm notorious for its high computational complexity. We derive a novel formulation of q-Expected Hypervolume Improvement (qEHVI), an acquisition function that extends EHVI to the parallel, constrained evaluation setting. qEHVI is an exact computation of the joint EHVI of q new candidate points (up to Monte-Carlo (MC) integration error). Whereas previous EHVI formulations rely on gradient-free acquisition optimization or approximated gradients, we compute exact gradients of the MC estimator via auto-differentiation, thereby enabling efficient and effective optimization using first-order and quasi-second-order methods. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that qEHVI is computationally tractable in many practical scenarios and outperforms state-of-the-art multi-objective BO algorithms at a fraction of their wall time.
Bayesian optimization (BO) methods often rely on the assumption that the objective function is well-behaved, but in practice, this is seldom true for real-world objectives even if noise-free observations can be collected. Common approaches, which try to model the objective as precisely as possible, often fail to make progress by spending too many evaluations modeling irrelevant details. We address this issue by proposing surrogate models that focus on the well-behaved structure in the objective function, which is informative for search, while ignoring detrimental structure that is challenging to model from few observations. First, we demonstrate that surrogate models with appropriate noise distributions can absorb challenging structures in the objective function by treating them as irreducible uncertainty. Secondly, we show that a latent Gaussian process is an excellent surrogate for this purpose, comparing with Gaussian processes with standard noise distributions. We perform numerous experiments on a range of BO benchmarks and find that our approach improves reliability and performance when faced with challenging objective functions.
Many real-world applications involve black-box optimization of multiple objectives using continuous function approximations that trade-off accuracy and resource cost of evaluation. For example, in rocket launching research, we need to find designs that trade-off return-time and angular distance using continuous-fidelity simulators (e.g., varying tolerance parameter to trade-off simulation time and accuracy) for design evaluations. The goal is to approximate the optimal Pareto set by minimizing the cost for evaluations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach referred to as information-Theoretic Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization with Continuous Approximations (iMOCA)} to solve this problem. The key idea is to select the sequence of input and function approximations for multiple objectives which maximize the information gain per unit cost for the optimal Pareto front. Our experiments on diverse synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that iMOCA significantly improves over existing single-fidelity methods.
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