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Register a new userThe causes of quasi-homologous CMEs
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In this paper, we identified the magnetic source locations of 142 quasi- homologous (QH) coronal mass ejections (CMEs), of which 121 are from solar cycle (SC) 23 and 21 from SC 24. Among those CMEs, 63% originated from the same source location as their predecessor (defined as S-type), while 37% origi- nated from a different location within the same active region as their predecessor (defined as D-type). Their distinctly different waiting time distribution, peaking around 7.5 and 1.5 hours for S- and D-type CMEs, suggests that they might involve different physical mechanisms with different characteristic time scales. Through detailed analysis based on non-linear force free (NLFF) coronal mag- netic field modeling of two exemplary cases, we propose that the S-type QH CMES might involve a recurring energy release process from the same source location (by magnetic free energy replenishment), whereas the D-type QH CMEs can happen when a flux tube system disturbed by a nearby CME.
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We continue our study (Grechnev et al. (2013), doi:10.1007/s11207-013-0316-6; Paper I) on the 18 November 2003 geoffective event. To understand possible impact on geospace of coronal transients observed on that day, we investigated their properties from solar near-surface manifestations in extreme ultraviolet, LASCO white-light images, and dynamic radio spectra. We reconcile near-surface activity with the expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and determine their orientation relative to the earthward direction. The kinematic measurements, dynamic radio spectra, and microwave and X-ray light curves all contribute to the overall picture of the complex event and confirm an additional eruption at 08:07 - 08:20 UT close to the solar disk center presumed in Paper I. Unusual characteristics of the ejection appear to match those expected for a source of the 20 November superstorm but make its detection in LASCO images hopeless. On the other hand, none of the CMEs observed by LASCO seem to be a promising candidate for a source of the superstorm being able to produce, at most, a glancing blow on the Earths magnetosphere. Our analysis confirms free propagation of shock waves revealed in the event and reconciles their kinematics with EUV waves and dynamic radio spectra up to decameters.
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME arrival. The real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the CCMC and executed in real-time. The current implementation evaluates the sensitivity of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations of CME propagation to initial CME parameters. We discuss the results of real-time ensemble simulations for a total of 35 CME events between January 2013 - July 2014. For the 17 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, the mean absolute arrival time prediction error was 12.3 hours, which is comparable to the errors reported in other studies. For predictions of CME arrival at Earth the correct rejection rate is 62% and the false-alarm rate is 38%. The arrival time was within the range of the ensemble arrival predictions for 8 out of 17 events. The Brier Score for CME arrival predictions is 0.15 (where 1 is a perfect forecast), indicating that on average, the predicted likelihood of CME arrival is fairly accurate. The reliability of ensemble CME arrival predictions is heavily dependent on the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the median and spread. Preliminary analysis of the probabilistic forecasts suggests undervariability, indicating that these ensembles do not sample a wide enough spread in CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters, the accuracy of the solar wind background derived from coronal maps, or other model limitations. Finally, predictions of the Kp geomagnetic index differ from observed values by less than one for 11 out of 17 of the ensembles and Kp prediction errors computed from the mean predicted Kp show a mean absolute error of 1.3.
The magnetic breakout model, in which reconnection in the corona leads to destabilization of a filament channel, explains numerous features of eruptive solar events, from small-scale jets to global-scale coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The underlying multipolar topology, pre-eruption activities, and sequence of magnetic reconnection onsets (first breakout, then flare) of many observed fast CMEs/eruptive flares are fully consistent with the model. Recently, we have demonstrated that most observed coronal-hole jets in fan/spine topologies also are induced by breakout reconnection at the null point above a filament channel (with or without a filament). For these two types of eruptions occurring in similar topologies, the key question is, why do some events generate jets while others form CMEs? We focused on the initiation of eruptions in large bright points/small active regions that were located in coronal holes and clearly exhibited null-point (fan/spine) topologies: such configurations are referred to as pseudostreamers. We analyzed and compared SDO/AIA, SOHO/LASCO, and RHESSI observations of three events. Our analysis of the events revealed two new observable signatures of breakout reconnection prior to the explosive jet/CME outflows and flare onset: coronal dimming and the opening-up of field lines above the breakout current sheet. Most key properties were similar among the selected erupting structures, thereby eliminating region size, photospheric field strength, magnetic configuration, and pre-eruptive evolution as discriminating factors between jets and CMEs. We consider the factors that contribute to the different types of dynamic behavior, and conclude that the main determining factor is the ratio of the magnetic free energy associated with the filament channel compared to the energy associated with the overlying flux inside and outside the pseudostreamer dome.
In past decades, much progress has been achieved on the origin and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In-situ observations of the counterparts of CMEs, especially magnetic clouds (MCs) near the Earth, have provided measurements of the structure and total flux of CME flux ropes. However, it has been difficult to measure these properties in the erupting CME flux rope, in particular in the pre-existing flux rope. In this work, we propose a model to estimate the toroidal flux of the pre-existing flux rope by subtracting the flux contributed by magnetic reconnection during the eruption from the flux measured in the MC. The flux by the reconnection is derived from geometric properties of two-ribbon flares based on a quasi-2D reconnection model. We then apply the model to four CME/flare events and find that the ratio of toroidal flux in the pre-existing flux rope to that of the associated MC lies in the range of 0.40--0.88. It indicates that the toroidal flux of the pre-existing flux rope has an important contribution to that of the CME flux rope and is usually at least as large as the flux arising from the eruption process for the selected events.
We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard NASAs twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites dont simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes while, at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.
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