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We present and assess a Bayesian method to interpret gravitational wave signals from binary black holes. Our method directly compares gravitational wave data to numerical relativity simulations. This procedure bypasses approximations used in semi-analytical models for compact binary coalescence. In this work, we use only the full posterior parameter distribution for generic nonprecessing binaries, drawing inferences away from the set of NR simulations used, via interpolation of a single scalar quantity (the marginalized log-likelihood, $ln {cal L}$) evaluated by comparing data to nonprecessing binary black hole simulations. We also compare the data to generic simulations, and discuss the effectiveness of this procedure for generic sources. We specifically assess the impact of higher order modes, repeating our interpretation with both $lle2$ as well as $lle3$ harmonic modes. Using the $lle3$ higher modes, we gain more information from the signal and can better constrain the parameters of the gravitational wave signal. We assess and quantify several sources of systematic error that our procedure could introduce, including simulation resolution and duration; most are negligible. We show through examples that our method can recover the parameters for equal mass, zero spin; GW150914-like; and unequal mass, precessing spin sources. Our study of this new parameter estimation method demonstrates we can quantify and understand the systematic and statistical error. This method allows us to use higher order modes from numerical relativity simulations to better constrain the black hole binary parameters.
We present the recent results of a research project aimed at constructing a robust wave extraction technique for numerical relativity. Our procedure makes use of Weyl scalars to achieve wave extraction. It is well known that, with a correct choice of null tetrad, Weyl scalars are directly associated to physical properties of the space-time under analysis in some well understood way. In particular it is possible to associate $Psi_4$ with the outgoing gravitational radiation degrees of freedom, thus making it a promising tool for numerical wave--extraction. The right choice of the tetrad is, however, the problem to be addressed. We have made progress towards identifying a general procedure for choosing this tetrad, by looking at transverse tetrads where $Psi_1=Psi_3=0$. As a direct application of these concepts, we present a numerical study of the evolution of a non-linearly disturbed black hole described by the Bondi--Sachs metric. This particular scenario allows us to compare the results coming from Weyl scalars with the results coming from the news function which, in this particular case, is directly associated with the radiative degrees of freedom. We show that, if we did not take particular care in choosing the right tetrad, we would end up with incorrect results.
By listening to gravity in the low frequency band, between 0.1 mHz and 1 Hz, the future space-based gravitational-wave observatory LISA will be able to detect tens of thousands of astrophysical sources from cosmic dawn to the present. The detection and characterization of all resolvable sources is a challenge in itself, but LISA data analysis will be further complicated by interruptions occurring in the interferometric measurements. These interruptions will be due to various causes occurring at various rates, such as laser frequency switches, high-gain antenna re-pointing, orbit corrections, or even unplanned random events. Extracting long-lasting gravitational-wave signals from gapped data raises problems such as noise leakage and increased computational complexity. We address these issues by using Bayesian data augmentation, a method that reintroduces the missing data as auxiliary variables in the sampling of the posterior distribution of astrophysical parameters. This provides a statistically consistent way to handle gaps while improving the sampling efficiency and mitigating leakage effects. We apply the method to the estimation of galactic binaries parameters with different gap patterns, and we compare the results to the case of complete data.
Inspiraling binaries of compact objects are primary targets for current and future gravitational-wave observatories. Waveforms computed in General Relativity are used to search for these sources, and will probably be used to extract source parameters from detected signals. However, if a different theory of gravity happens to be correct in the strong-field regime, source-parameter estimation may be affected by a fundamental bias: that is, by systematic errors induced due to the use of waveforms derived in the incorrect theory. If the deviations from General Relativity are not large enough to be detectable on their own and yet these systematic errors remain significant (i.e., larger than the statistical uncertainties in parameter estimation), fundamental bias cannot be corrected in a single observation, and becomes stealth bias. In this article we develop a scheme to determine in which cases stealth bias could be present in gravitational-wave astronomy. For a given observation, the answer depends on the detection signal-to-noise ratio and on the strength of the modified-gravity correction. As an example, we study three representative stellar-mass binary systems that will be detectable with second-generation ground-based observatories. We find that significant systematic bias can occur whether or not modified gravity can be positively detected, for correction strengths that are not currently excluded by any other experiment. Thus, stealth bias may be a generic feature of gravitational-wave detections, and it should be considered and characterized, using expanded models such as the parametrized post-Einstein framework, when interpreting the results of parameter-estimation analyses.
Gravitational waves deliver information in exquisite detail about astrophysical phenomena, among them the collision of two black holes, a system completely invisible to the eyes of electromagnetic telescopes. Models that predict gravitational wave signals from likely sources are crucial for the success of this endeavor. Modeling binary black hole sources of gravitational radiation requires solving the Eintein equations of General Relativity using powerful computer hardware and sophisticated numerical algorithms. This proceeding presents where we are in understanding ground-based gravitational waves resulting from the merger of black holes and the implications of these sources for the advent of gravitational-wave astronomy.
The first detection of a gravitational-wave signal of a coalescence of two black holes marked the beginning of the era of gravitational-wave astronomy, which opens exciting new possibilities in the fields of astronomy, astrophysics and cosmology. The currently operating detectors of the LIGO and Virgo collaborations are sensitive at relatively high frequencies, from 10 Hz up to about a kHz, and are able to detect gravitational waves emitted in a short time frame of less than a second (binary black holes) to minutes (binary neutron stars). Future missions like LISA will be sensitive in lower frequency ranges, which will make it possible to detect gravitational waves emitted long before these binaries merge. In this article, we investigate the possibilities for parameter estimation using the Fisher-matrix formalism with combined information from present and future detectors in different frequency bands. The detectors we consider are the LIGO/Virgo detectors, the Einstein Telescope (ET), the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), and the first stage of the Deci- Hertz Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (B-DECIGO). The underlying models are constructed in time domain, which allows us to accurately model long-duration signal observations with multiband (or broadband) detector networks on parameter estimation. We assess the benefit of combining information from ground-based and space-borne detectors, and how choices of the orbit of B-DECIGO influence parameter estimates.