Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userOMNIRank: Risk Quantification for P2P Platforms with Deep Learning
66
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Honglun Zhang
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
P2P lending presents as an innovative and flexible alternative for conventional lending institutions like banks, where lenders and borrowers directly make transactions and benefit each other without complicated verifications. However, due to lack of specialized laws, delegated monitoring and effective managements, P2P platforms may spawn potential risks, such as withdraw failures, investigation involvements and even runaway bosses, which cause great losses to lenders and are especially serious and notorious in China. Although there are abundant public information and data available on the Internet related to P2P platforms, challenges of multi-sourcing and heterogeneity matter. In this paper, we promote a novel deep learning model, OMNIRank, which comprehends multi-dimensional features of P2P platforms for risk quantification and produces scores for ranking. We first construct a large-scale flexible crawling framework and obtain great amounts of multi-source heterogeneous data of domestic P2P platforms since 2007 from the Internet. Purifications like duplication and noise removal, null handing, format unification and fusion are applied to improve data qualities. Then we extract deep features of P2P platforms via text comprehension, topic modeling, knowledge graph and sentiment analysis, which are delivered as inputs to OMNIRank, a deep learning model for risk quantification of P2P platforms. Finally, according to rankings generated by OMNIRank, we conduct flourish data visualizations and interactions, providing lenders with comprehensive information supports, decision suggestions and safety guarantees.
rate research
Read More
Conventional uncertainty quantification methods usually lacks the capability of dealing with high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. This paper presents a semi-supervised learning framework for dimension reduction and reliability analysis. An autoencoder is first adopted for mapping the high-dimensional space into a low-dimensional latent space, which contains a distinguishable failure surface. Then a deep feedforward neural network (DFN) is utilized to learn the mapping relationship and reconstruct the latent space, while the Gaussian process (GP) modeling technique is used to build the surrogate model of the transformed limit state function. During the training process of the DFN, the discrepancy between the actual and reconstructed latent space is minimized through semi-supervised learning for ensuring the accuracy. Both labeled and unlabeled samples are utilized for defining the loss function of the DFN. Evolutionary algorithm is adopted to train the DFN, then the Monte Carlo simulation method is used for uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis based on the proposed framework. The effectiveness is demonstrated through a mathematical example.
Due to their on-body and ubiquitous nature, wearables can generate a wide range of unique sensor data creating countless opportunities for deep learning tasks. We propose DeepWear, a deep learning (DL) framework for wearable devices to improve the performance and reduce the energy footprint. DeepWear strategically offloads DL tasks from a wearable device to its paired handheld device through local network. Compared to the remote-cloud-based offloading, DeepWear requires no Internet connectivity, consumes less energy, and is robust to privacy breach. DeepWear provides various novel techniques such as context-aware offloading, strategic model partition, and pipelining support to efficiently utilize the processing capacity from nearby paired handhelds. Deployed as a user-space library, DeepWear offers developer-friendly APIs that are as simple as those in traditional DL libraries such as TensorFlow. We have implemented DeepWear on the Android OS and evaluated it on COTS smartphones and smartwatches with real DL models. DeepWear brings up to 5.08X and 23.0X execution speedup, as well as 53.5% and 85.5% energy saving compared to wearable-only and handheld-only strategies, respectively.
Predictive modeling with electronic health record (EHR) data is anticipated to drive personalized medicine and improve healthcare quality. Constructing predictive statistical models typically requires extraction of curated predictor variables from normalized EHR data, a labor-intensive process that discards the vast majority of information in each patients record. We propose a representation of patients entire, raw EHR records based on the Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) format. We demonstrate that deep learning methods using this representation are capable of accurately predicting multiple medical events from multiple centers without site-specific data harmonization. We validated our approach using de-identified EHR data from two U.S. academic medical centers with 216,221 adult patients hospitalized for at least 24 hours. In the sequential format we propose, this volume of EHR data unrolled into a total of 46,864,534,945 data points, including clinical notes. Deep learning models achieved high accuracy for tasks such as predicting in-hospital mortality (AUROC across sites 0.93-0.94), 30-day unplanned readmission (AUROC 0.75-0.76), prolonged length of stay (AUROC 0.85-0.86), and all of a patients final discharge diagnoses (frequency-weighted AUROC 0.90). These models outperformed state-of-the-art traditional predictive models in all cases. We also present a case-study of a neural-network attribution system, which illustrates how clinicians can gain some transparency into the predictions. We believe that this approach can be used to create accurate and scalable predictions for a variety of clinical scenarios, complete with explanations that directly highlight evidence in the patients chart.
Modeling and managing portfolio risk is perhaps the most important step to achieve growing and preserving investment performance. Within the modern portfolio construction framework that built on Markowitzs theory, the covariance matrix of stock returns is required to model the portfolio risk. Traditional approaches to estimate the covariance matrix are based on human designed risk factors, which often requires tremendous time and effort to design better risk factors to improve the covariance estimation. In this work, we formulate the quest of mining risk factors as a learning problem and propose a deep learning solution to effectively design risk factors with neural networks. The learning objective is carefully set to ensure the learned risk factors are effective in explaining stock returns as well as have desired orthogonality and stability. Our experiments on the stock market data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method: our method can obtain $1.9%$ higher explained variance measured by $R^2$ and also reduce the risk of a global minimum variance portfolio. Incremental analysis further supports our design of both the architecture and the learning objective.
Recently equal risk pricing, a framework for fair derivative pricing, was extended to consider dynamic risk measures. However, all current implementations either employ a static risk measure that violates time consistency, or are based on traditional dynamic programming solution schemes that are impracticable in problems with a large number of underlying assets (due to the curse of dimensionality) or with incomplete asset dynamics information. In this paper, we extend for the first time a famous off-policy deterministic actor-critic deep reinforcement learning (ACRL) algorithm to the problem of solving a risk averse Markov decision process that models risk using a time consistent recursive expectile risk measure. This new ACRL algorithm allows us to identify high quality time consistent hedging policies (and equal risk prices) for options, such as basket options, that cannot be handled using traditional methods, or in context where only historical trajectories of the underlying assets are available. Our numerical experiments, which involve both a simple vanilla option and a more exotic basket option, confirm that the new ACRL algorithm can produce 1) in simple environments, nearly optimal hedging policies, and highly accurate prices, simultaneously for a range of maturities 2) in complex environments, good quality policies and prices using reasonable amount of computing resources; and 3) overall, hedging strategies that actually outperform the strategies produced using static risk measures when the risk is evaluated at later points of time.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
