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Register a new userComputational Models for Attitude and Actions Prediction
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Added by
Jalal Mahmud
Publication date
2017
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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In this paper, we present computational models to predict Twitter users attitude towards a specific brand through their personal and social characteristics. We also predict their likelihood to take different actions based on their attitudes. In order to operationalize our research on users attitude and actions, we collected ground-truth data through surveys of Twitter users. We have conducted experiments using two real world datasets to validate the effectiveness of our attitude and action prediction framework. Finally, we show how our models can be integrated with a visual analytics system for customer intervention.
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Network embedding methods map a networks nodes to vectors in an embedding space, in such a way that these representations are useful for estimating some notion of similarity or proximity between pairs of nodes in the network. The quality of these node representations is then showcased through results of downstream prediction tasks. Commonly used benchmark tasks such as link prediction, however, present complex evaluation pipelines and an abundance of design choices. This, together with a lack of standardized evaluation setups can obscure the real progress in the field. In this paper, we aim to shed light on the state-of-the-art of network embedding methods for link prediction and show, using a consistent evaluation pipeline, that only thin progress has been made over the last years. The newly conducted benchmark that we present here, including 17 embedding methods, also shows that many approaches are outperformed even by simple heuristics. Finally, we argue that standardized evaluation tools can repair this situation and boost future progress in this field.
Looking at a persons hands one often can tell what the person is going to do next, how his/her hands are moving and where they will be, because an actors intentions shape his/her movement kinematics during action execution. Similarly, active systems with real-time constraints must not simply rely on passive video-segment classification, but they have to continuously update their estimates and predict future actions. In this paper, we study the prediction of dexterous actions. We recorded from subjects performing different manipulation actions on the same object, such as squeezing, flipping, washing, wiping and scratching with a sponge. In psychophysical experiments, we evaluated human observers skills in predicting actions from video sequences of different length, depicting the hand movement in the preparation and execution of actions before and after contact with the object. We then developed a recurrent neural network based method for action prediction using as input patches around the hand. We also used the same formalism to predict the forces on the finger tips using for training synchronized video and force data streams. Evaluations on two new datasets showed that our system closely matches human performance in the recognition task, and demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to predict what and how a dexterous action is performed.
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others (COVID-19). Here, we perform an exhaustive evaluation of random testing and contact tracing on novel superspreading random networks to try to identify which epidemics are more containable with such measures. We also explore the suitability of positive rates as a proxy of the actual infection statuses of the population. Moreover, we propose novel ideal strategies to explore the potential limits of both testing and tracing strategies. Our study counsels caution, both at assuming epidemic containment and at inferring the actual epidemic progress, with current testing or tracing strategies. However, it also brings a ray of light for the future, with the promise of the potential of novel testing strategies that can achieve great effectiveness.
Predicting popularity, or the total volume of information outbreaks, is an important subproblem for understanding collective behavior in networks. Each of the two main types of recent approaches to the problem, feature-driven and generative models, have desired qualities and clear limitations. This paper bridges the gap between these solutions with a new hybrid approach and a new performance benchmark. We model each social cascade with a marked Hawkes self-exciting point process, and estimate the content virality, memory decay, and user influence. We then learn a predictive layer for popularity prediction using a collection of cascade history. To our surprise, Hawkes process with a predictive overlay outperform recent feature-driven and generative approaches on existing tweet data [43] and a new public benchmark on news tweets. We also found that a basic set of user features and event time summary statistics performs competitively in both classification and regression tasks, and that adding point process information to the feature set further improves predictions. From these observations, we argue that future work on popularity prediction should compare across feature-driven and generative modeling approaches in both classification and regression tasks.
Graphs are a common model for complex relational data such as social networks and protein interactions, and such data can evolve over time (e.g., new friendships) and be noisy (e.g., unmeasured interactions). Link prediction aims to predict future edges or infer missing edges in the graph, and has diverse applications in recommender systems, experimental design, and complex systems. Even though link prediction algorithms strongly depend on the set of edges in the graph, existing approaches typically do not modify the graph topology to improve performance. Here, we demonstrate how simply adding a set of edges, which we call a emph{proposal set}, to the graph as a pre-processing step can improve the performance of several link prediction algorithms. The underlying idea is that if the edges in the proposal set generally align with the structure of the graph, link prediction algorithms are further guided towards predicting the right edges; in other words, adding a proposal set of edges is a signal-boosting pre-processing step. We show how to use existing link prediction algorithms to generate effective proposal sets and evaluate this approach on various synthetic and empirical datasets. We find that proposal sets meaningfully improve the accuracy of link prediction algorithms based on both neighborhood heuristics and graph neural networks. Code is available at url{https://github.com/CUAI/Edge-Proposal-Sets}.
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