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Register a new userUncorrelated far AGN flaring with their delayed UHECRs events
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The most distant AGN, within the allowed GZK cut-off radius, have been recently candidate by many authors as the best location for observed UHECR origination. Indeed, the apparent homogeneity and isotropy of recent UHECR signals seems to require a far cosmic isotropic and homogeneous scenario involving a proton UHECR courier: our galaxy or nearest local group or super galactic plane (ruled by Virgo cluster) are too much near and apparently too much anisotropic in disagreement with PAO and TA almost homogeneous sample data. However, the few and mild observed UHECR clustering, the North and South Hot Spots, are smeared in wide solid angles. Their consequent random walk flight from most far GZK UHECR sources, nearly at 100 Mpc, must be delayed (with respect to a straight AGN photon gamma flaring arrival trajectory) at least by a million years. During this time, the AGN jet blazing signal, its probable axis deflection (such as the helical jet in Mrk501), its miss alignment or even its almost certain exhaust activity may lead to a complete misleading correlation between present UHECR events and a much earlier active AGN ejection. UHECR maps maybe anyway related to galactic or nearest (Cen A, M82) AGN extragalactic UHECR sources shining in twin Hot Spot. Therefore we defend our (quite different) scenarios where UHECR are mostly made by lightest UHECR nuclei originated by nearby AGN sources, or few galactic sources, whose delayed signals reach us within few thousand years in the observed smeared sky areas.
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As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star-black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO--Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusions of Abbott et al, ApJL 913 L7 (2021). GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 are outliers.
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