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Register a new userProbing Extremal Gravitational-Wave Events with Coarse-Grained Likelihoods
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As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star-black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO--Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusions of Abbott et al, ApJL 913 L7 (2021). GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 are outliers.
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Light bosons, proposed as a possible solution to various problems in fundamental physics and cosmology, include a broad class of candidates for beyond the Standard Model physics, such as dilatons and moduli, wave dark matter and axion-like particles. If light bosons exist in nature, they will spontaneously form clouds by extracting rotational energy from rotating massive black holes through superradiance, a classical wave amplification process that has been studied for decades. The superradiant growth of the cloud sets the geometry of the final black hole, and the black hole geometry determines the shape of the cloud. Hence, both the black hole geometry and the cloud encode information about the light boson. For this reason, measurements of the gravitational field of the black hole/cloud system (as encoded in gravitational waves) are over-determined. We show that a single gravitational wave measurement can be used to verify the existence of light bosons by model selection, rule out alternative explanations for the signal, and measure the boson mass. Such measurements can be done generically for bosons in the mass range $[10^{-16.5},10^{-14}]$ eV using LISA observations of extreme mass-ratio inspirals.
Gravitational wave observations of quasicircular compact binary mergers in principle provide an arbitrarily complex likelihood over eight independent intrinsic parameters: the masses and spins of the two merging objects. In this work, we demonstrate by example that a simple normal approximation over fewer (usually, three) effective dimensions provides a very accurate representation of the likelihood, and allows us to replicate the eight-dimensional posterior over the mass and spin degrees of freedom. Alongside this paper, we provide the parameters for multivariate normal fits for each event published in GWTC-1 and GWTC-2, using the posterior samples from the catalog for each associated release. These normal approximations provide a highly efficient way to characterize gravitational wave observations when combining large numbers of events.
The discovery of the electromagnetic counterparts to the binary neutron star merger GW170817 has opened the era of GW+EM multi-messenger astronomy. Exploiting this breakthrough requires increasing samples to explore the diversity of kilonova behaviour and provide more stringent constraints on the Hubble constant, and tests of fundamental physics. LSST can play a key role in this field in the 2020s, when the gravitational wave detector network is expected to detect higher rates of merger events involving neutron stars ($sim$10s per year) out to distances of several hundred Mpc. Here we propose comprehensive target-of-opportunity (ToOs) strategies for follow-up of gravitational-wave sources that will make LSST the premiere machine for discovery and early characterization for neutron star mergers and other gravitational-wave sources.
Future generation of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z > 40, then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.
Recently we have witnessed the first multi-messenger detection of colliding neutron stars through Gravitational Waves (GWs) and Electromagnetic (EM) waves (GW170817), thanks to the joint efforts of LIGO/Virgo and Space/Ground-based telescopes. In this paper, we report on the RATIR followup observation strategies and show the results for the trigger G194575. This trigger is not of astrophysical interest; however, is of great interests to the robust design of a followup engine to explore large sky error regions. We discuss the development of an image-subtraction pipeline for the 6-color, optical/NIR imaging camera RATIR. Considering a two band ($i$ and $r$) campaign in the Fall of 2015, we find that the requirement of simultaneous detection in both bands leads to a factor $sim$10 reduction in false alarm rate, which can be further reduced using additional bands. We also show that the performance of our proposed algorithm is robust to fluctuating observing conditions, maintaining a low false alarm rate with a modest decrease in system efficiency that can be overcome utilizing repeat visits. Expanding our pipeline to search for either optical or NIR detections (3 or more bands), considering separately the optical $riZ$ and NIR $YJH$ bands, should result in a false alarm rate $approx 1%$ and an efficiency $approx 90%$. RATIRs simultaneous optical/NIR observations are expected to yield about one candidate transient in the vast 100 $mathrm{deg^2}$ LIGO error region for prioritized followup with larger aperture telescopes.
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