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Register a new userExploring the climate of Proxima B with the Met Office Unified Model
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We present results of simulations of the climate of the newly discovered planet Proxima Centauri B, performed using the Met Office Unified Model (UM). We examine the responses of both an `Earth-like atmosphere and simplified nitrogen and trace carbon dioxide atmosphere to the radiation likely received by Proxima Centauri B. Additionally, we explore the effects of orbital eccentricity on the planetary conditions using a range of eccentricities guided by the observational constraints. Overall, our results are in agreement with previous studies in suggesting Proxima Centauri B may well have surface temperatures conducive to the presence of liquid water. Moreover, we have expanded the parameter regime over which the planet may support liquid water to higher values of eccentricity (>= 0.1) and lower incident fluxes (881.7 Wm-2) than previous work. This increased parameter space arises because of the low sensitivity of the planet to changes in stellar flux, a consequence of the stellar spectrum and orbital configuration. However, we also find interesting differences from previous simulations, such as cooler mean surface temperatures for the tidally-locked case. Finally, we have produced high resolution planetary emission and reflectance spectra, and highlight signatures of gases vital to the evolution of complex life on Earth (oxygen, ozone and carbon dioxide).
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The discovery of a planet orbiting around Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun, opens new avenues for the remote observations of the atmosphere and surface of an exoplanet, Proxima b. To date, three-dimensional (3D) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the best available tools to investigate the properties of the exo-atmospheres, waiting for the next generation of space and groundbased telescopes. In this work, we use the PlanetSimulator (PlaSim), an intermediate complexity 3D GCM, a flexible and fast model, suited to handle all the orbital and physical parameters of a planet and to study the dynamics of its atmosphere. Assuming an Earth-like atmosphere and a 1:1 spin/orbit configuration (tidal locking), our simulations of Proxima b are consistent with a day-side open ocean planet with a superrotating atmosphere. Moreover, because of the limited representation of the radiative transfer in PlaSim, we compute the spectrum of the exoplanet with an offline Radiative Transfer Code with a spectral resolution of 1 nm. This spectrum is used to derive the thermal phase curves for different orbital inclination angles. In combination with instrumental detection sensitivities, the different thermal phase curves are used to evaluate observation conditions at ground level (e.g., ELT) or in space (e.g., JWST). We estimated the exposure time to detect Proxima b (assuming an Earth-like atmosphere) thermal phase curve in the FIR with JWST with signal-to-noise ratio $simeq$1. Under the hypothesis of total noise dominated by shot noise, neglecting other possible extra contribution producing a noise floor, the exposure time is equal to 5 hours for each orbital epoch.
To study the complexity of hot Jupiter atmospheres revealed by observations of increasing quality, we have adapted the UK Met Office global circulation model (GCM), the Unified Model (UM), to these exoplanets. The UM solves the full 3D Navier-Stokes equations with a height-varying gravity, avoiding the simplifications used in most GCMs currently applied to exoplanets. In this work we present the coupling of the UM dynamical core to an accurate radiation scheme based on the two-stream approximation and correlated-k method with state-of-the-art opacities from ExoMol. Our first application of this model is devoted to the extensively studied hot Jupiter HD 209458b. We have derived synthetic emission spectra and phase curves, and compare them to both previous models also based on state-of-the-art radiative transfer, and to observations. We find a reasonable a agreement between observations and both our day side emission and hot spot offset, however, our night side emission is too large. Overall our results are qualitatively similar to those found by Showman et al. (2009) with the SPARC/MITgcm, however, we note several quantitative differences: Our simulations show significant variation in the position of the hottest part of the atmosphere with pressure, as expected from simple timescale arguments, and in contrast to the vertical coherency found by Showman et al. (2009). We also see significant quantitative differences in calculated synthetic observations. Our comparisons strengthen the need for detailed intercomparisons of dynamical cores, radiation schemes and post-processing tools to understand these differences. This effort is necessary in order to make robust conclusions about these atmospheres based on GCM results.
The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms; forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 hours, and full-disk forecasts for the next four days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results, and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.
We analyze the evolution of the potentially habitable planet Proxima Centauri b to identify environmental factors that affect its long-term habitability. We consider physical processes acting on size scales ranging from the galactic to the stellar system to the planets core. We find that there is a significant probability that Proxima Centauri has had encounters with its companion stars, Alpha Centauri A and B, that are close enough to destabilize an extended planetary system. If the system has an additional planet, as suggested by the discovery data, then it may perturb planet bs eccentricity and inclination, possibly driving those parameters to non-zero values, even in the presence of strong tidal damping. We also model the internal evolution of the planet, evaluating the roles of different radiogenic abundances and tidal heating and find that magnetic field generation is likely for billions of years. We find that if planet b formed in situ, then it experienced 169 +/- 13 million years in a runaway greenhouse as the star contracted during its formation. This early phase could remove up to 5 times as much water as in the modern Earths oceans, possibly producing a large abiotic oxygen atmosphere. On the other hand, if Proxima Centauri b formed with a substantial hydrogen atmosphere (0.01 - 1% of the planets mass), then this envelope could have shielded the water long enough for it to be retained before being blown off itself. After modeling this wide range of processes we conclude that water retention during the host stars pre-main sequence phase is the biggest obstacle for Proxima bs habitability. These results are all obtained with a new software package called VPLANET.
Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its stars habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here we use 1D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for evolutionary scenarios predicted in our companion paper (Barnes et al., 2016). These include high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with either oxidizing or reducing compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen bs position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b, but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere, and JWST observations longward of 7 microns could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST, but may be within the reach of larger aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthesis. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 {mu}m would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4 and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.
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